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Current price is almost a month old, i think this needs an update.
Trades for less than 4 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12133944 (bought one for 3 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11931118 (also 3 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12217876 (selling for 3 keys and 5 ref)
Selling for 4 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12256644
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12258205
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12245152
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12244361
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12244329
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12228766
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12194236 (sold)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12253851
Also, there are 4 guys selling this for 4 keys at classifieds
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/vintage%20tossle/
Unsold for more than 4 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12237108 (unsold for this price more than a day, now selling for 4 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12225338
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11660575 (best offer was 4 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11865019
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11983821 (unsold for more than 1 week)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11729239
The reason i put the range 3.7 - 4 keys is that most of the 4 keys trades are not closed yet so even 4 keys is a hard sell.
This is also my first submission so don't be rough to me.
I bought one for a friend about 2 months ago and spent 5-6 keys I believe. You have done your homework so I believe this change in price could be current.
well, you don't have any proof of the 3.7, so i'd say 4 flat would be better for now.
(p.s. 25 days =/= a month)
edited, i didn't paid too much attention to the date.
uhm, i thought since the price is in keys and their price is still growing a flat price would be innacurate.
i will take this advice my next suggestion, thanks.
the first 2 are quickbuyers and dont matter.
the third one is legit.
the first unsold is 1 hour old, the second one is 50 minutes old and the same guy, the third "unsold" is 10 hours old, the fourth is sold, the fifth is also only 11 hours old, the sixth one kinda counts, cause it's 1 day old.
7th one is sold like you said.
8th one is only 3 hours old.
To sum it up, you have one seller below the current range, and one real unsold at the current price. definitely not enough to lower the price.
Downvote
+ Vintages take some time to sell. I would say unsold for 3 days is ok, everything else shouldn't count.
I think it would be better at 4 keys flat since there is only 1 trade selling at 3.7. But all-in-all the suggestion looks good. Also, trade selling higher than 4.5 are irrevelevant to the suggestion.
I'd say more proof, or just go 4 Keys flat.
You don't really have proof for 3.7 keys.
And those other trades are quickbuyer trades.
A single trade at 3 keys and 5 ref does not support 3.7 keys in range. Unsolds and quickbuyers are not valid proof for an arbitrary low range.
Closing for insufficient evidence.