Suggestion: Halloween Spell: Headless Horseshoes at 1 key

Price Suggestion

626 votes up

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This suggestion was accepted Fri, 05 Jul 13 02:21:02 +0000 by Horizon.

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10503873 c/o of a key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7987330 had a 3 key offer that was retracted. new offer of 1 key.

VERY small amount on outpost, only 320 in premium user's accounts. VERY many lowballers that don't realize backpack has a 7 MONTH OLD price. I has too little proofs you say? YOU try finding these on outpost!!!! any proof and counterproof is welcomed.

the person with the 1 key offer hid his own post.

That doesn't mean that they did not offer 1 key....

well it probbably means retracted, so he is not willing to buy it for 1 key.

He was obviously willing to buy it for 1 key if he offered 1 key....even if he retracted it he still was going to buy it for 1 key. And for all we know he bought one already for 1 key and put it on an alt account

or he bought it for less.

retracted offers dont count as proof

Being the owner of the second trade, I'd like to point out that both the one-key offer and the three-key offer were retracted. I'd like this to be true, but unfortunately not.

:( It's still worthless.

yet you rejected an offer of 4 ref, meaning it is possible to get 4 ref and possibly above.

No, that just means I was hoping for more. Which, apparently, won't be happening.

I haven't even had a legitimate offer for months.

when you were offered 4 ref, this price was the same. if you had an offer of 4 ref, that means it is possible to get 4 ref for it. i'm pretty sure that makes this suggestion still valid, as the price is a lot closer then the 7 month old price we have now.

Chances are, that 4 ref offer was an outlier.

And although this item might be rare, you should still be able to get more than two trades for it, since there's about 500 of them in existence.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that this price is probably due for an update, but I don't know about that range/proof.

EDIT: Also, if you can't find that much proof, and nobody is buying, that probably means there's no demand for it, and the price should not be rising so much, if at all.

There are so many problems with that statement. There is no proof that that the 4 ref offer was an outlier, and the fact that people have offered more (although retracted), would support the opposite. Why does he only have 2 trades? There is less than a page of these for sale on outpost. After looking through them all, how many weren't in a set? Two of them. How many links does he have? Two of them. I'm sure the number of these that are ever going to be on the market is much smaller than stats.tf will have. There are (as of this post and according to stats.tf) 380 of them in the game. 320 of these are in premium accounts. More than likely, many if not most of these are on accounts that are inactive. I still have one that I haven't even bothered to take the effort to put on the market, and I am sure I'm not the only one. Maybe I will have to do so just so there can be a whopping 3 on outpost that aren't in a set. As for the actual price suggestion, I don't really care tbh, everyone that actually pays attention knows that backpack.tf's pricing on rare items are just about impossible to be made accurate due to the way its pricing is made to begin with. The problem isn't the lack of demand, its the lack of supply. /rant

Retracted offers aren't as reliable as offers that are taken. Retracted implies that they've thought better of their offer, and most importantly, they're retracted, meaning that they don't count as actual sales. Though they're all the proof we have in this case, I'm not sure it's enough to warrant a price change, at least in this range.

Though supply might indirectly increase the demand for such an item, demand itself is more of an issue than supply. At least, I think so. If there was demand, presumably, people would be offering.

Like Clive said, it isn't demand. look at how little there are on the market, and in premium user accounts. then you will understand that it isn't nobody is buying, it's the SUPPLY. there are people offering 4 ref, there are people who have offered a key. this shows the backpack.tf's pricing is outdated, and it could definitely use a bump. Also, supply will ONLY decrease if in the next Halloween update the same spells/footprints AREN'T introduced.

But... people aren't buying. ._.

Yes, supply is definitely an issue. But there is pretty much no demand for this item. At least if there were valid offers there could be some better proof/price updating.

And this is just conjecture, and should not be used as proof, but Valve has never re-introduced items like this. Stranges, yes, but they haven't re-introduced anything else like this as far as I can remember. At least, not the exact same item.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10503873 - a new offer of 1 key there, I say we should wait how that turns out.

Thx Woifi.

His trade is closed due inactivity now, but with the amount of people offering 1 key, even if they retract (maybe they buy somewhere else?) I think this price is ok.

btw, resuggested this twice because first time suggested, didn't know 3 key offer was retracted, and 2nd time, wrong currency.

Not sure

L1: rejected 4 ref, retracted offer of 1 key

L2: retracted offer of a key

I think I'll upvote this because it's a lot better than the current price.

pretty sure ya know this, but rejected = wants more. plus, it's an offer quite a bit higher then the current pricing...

Yeah I know...but all his offers of 1 keys have been retracted.

Wanting more =/= getting sold at his price.

meant to say rejected = possible to get that price.

Yeah....but the 1 key offers have been RETRACTED, not REJECTED

eh, guess I can't counter it. liked it cuz it's a good point

Managed to find another trade involving these. The problem, however, is that he/she is selling the items as a set, and there are a lot of other items.

http://bazaar.tf/trade/151198

There are no results on trade.tf and I didn't see any in the classifieds.

yes, there are about a page of the headless horseman's footprint on OP, but the majority are in a set, and I did not see anyone offering on the headless footprint except for one who asked if he was selling it. hence only 2 links.

Oh hey look its me :D

Keep in mind, trade.tf would only show if it was listed some time in the last 3 days

The 4 ref offer that was rejected is the closest thing to proof you have so why is the price set at 1 key?

Because the first link has an offer of 1 key

A key isn't 4 ref...

retracted offer, means that the buyer was willing to buy it for a key. he may have moved it to an alt after buying from someone else. either way, this is still MUCH more accurate then the previous price. only 320 in existence.

The only thing close to proof was the 4 ref offer that was rejected so there should not be a 1 key flat price.

Yes thank you for explaining that to everyone. I am glad that we cleared the air here.

Should go up seeing was what I've read is that there are only 500 in the world, upvote.

320, actually :P

So then, it should be way more expensive!

That number is actually pretty irrelevant. It only matters how many are for sale

Very little not in a set. these were the only 2 I found not in a set.

These have sold as high as 5 keys and low as 1 ref in the last several months. You can't find trades because most of the successful ones have closed. For ex. there was a guy buying any and all prints he could get a few weeks to a month ago for 1 key...try to find the trade now though.

forgot to mention; yes I have a lot of them check my bp to see a few if you wish.