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Price of the Vintage Bloke’s Bucket Hat should slightly decrease. Proof/Evidence posted below. I will close this if there are too many disagreements.
There are only 2 pages on outpost and many of them are either painted or have a special collectors level.
Some trades on Outpost
Unsold for 5 Refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12242566
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12026424
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12279462
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12145095
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12283086
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11393696
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12255700
Unsold for 4.66 Refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12279414
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12226032
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12291199
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12200764
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10670844 - Backpack.tf price
Unsold for 4.33 Refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12271835
Unsold for 4 Refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12299982
Just a couple more recent links from Outpost
Unsold for 5 Refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12328781
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12312764 - Backpack.tf price
Many of your unsolds are very young trades:
Unsold for 5 Refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12242566 - 2 days old
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12026424
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12279462 - less than 1 day old
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12145095
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12283086 - less than 1 day old, didn't bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11393696
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12255700 - 1 day old, rarely bumped
Unsold for 4.66 Refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12279414 - less than 1 day old
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12226032 - 2 days old, rarely bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12291199 - less than 1 day old
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12200764 - 3 days old, didn't bumped since posting it
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10670844
You shouldn't use these young/ unbumped trades trades as valid proof.
The links I have provided are all the valid trades (Not including painted and special levelled ones as mentioned above) on Outpost. There are quite a lot of unsolds at 5 refined and 4.66, and a few of them have been opened for a longer time than others. I'll check them out again in a couple of days to see their status in whether they have sold or not and if I find that they are unsold because of the short time that they have been opened, I will close this suggestion.
I agree with you, this hat has to be drop in price, the only thing I want to point out is these trades can't be really used as good proof now. You should do what you have said, wait some days or so :)
Alright, I guess we'll see what happens in the following days and thanks for your opinion as well :D