This price doesn't seem to have been updated once since it was originally set, so it could at least use a refresher. It also looks obviously out of line with the "tier" of the hat and effect. Only 10 exist and only 1 is currently listed, and it's only been up a week, so fresh evidence is a bit hard to come by, so I used an older (3 months) trade of the same hat as well. Given the age of the current price I think there is plenty to support this new range; multiple pure offers at the lower and upper ends of the new range, Plenty of unusual offers in the new range, some well above the higher end.

The only active trade, only been up a week;

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12052984

Steaming Modest (2.3-2.5) plus sweets

Massed Flies Slouch (2.5-2.6) plus White Bills

O Fire Cold Killer (2.5-2.9) if owner adds

The same hat, being traded by a previous owner (several months old, but still much more recent than current listing)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8845306

Searing Salty Dog (1.3-1.6) plus a Bud

Circling Heart Merryweather (3.1-3.6)

Logo Demo Fro (1.3-1.4), Big Kill, 2x Crate 40, 13 keys (2.8 or so total, maybe more at that time)

O Fire Tossle (2.6-2.9)

Blizzardy Gatsby, Bud, 10 keys (~2.5)

Blizzardy Pillar (2.3-2.6)

GE Berliners (1.8-2.9), briefly added 16 keys

2 buds + 8 keys, was considering upping to 13

Black Max plus 8 keys

Steaming Honcho (1.3-1.5) plus a Bud and 17 keys (3+)

53 keys

3 buds (collecting)

Vivid Rack (2.1-2.8)

2 buds + 20 keys

Bubbling Human Cannonball (1.4-1.8) plus Logo Elfin (1.3-1.5) (2.7-3.3)

I just purchased the one that was out there, swapped my Peace Sign Beak (2.5-3) for it