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After unboxing this hat I went to go and get some offers but ended up selling it for a smoking head warmer + about one key in items
the head warmer is valued at 1.3 to 1.5
Proof of the offer: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12447781
check my BP for proof of trade ( he removed the 6 - 7 keys in sweets because of this being a low tier effect)
Added screenshot of trade: http://puu.sh/3yLyX.png
do it 1,3 flat according to unusual overpay
and provide screenie of trade
took care of the screen shot
You didn't account for overpay, which is a must when trading in unusuals, and you sold in under a day, which isn't really enough time to gather the real value of a hat.
Some sales within the past 2 weeks as counter:
Sold to http://backpack.tf/id/76561198046044931 for a Steaming Modest (2.2-2.5) (Compare http://backpack.tf/id/76561198046044931?time=1371366000 to http://backpack.tf/id/76561198046044931?time=1371452400 to see the sale)
Sold only 2 days later for a white Max's ( http://backpack.tf/id/76561198046044931?time=1371625200 compared to previous links)
TL;DR not so sure on this, looks like you sold it a little low. However, my links are older than yours. Staying neutral.
The reason i sold so low is because the effect is going downwards very quickly. At first it was very easy to sell because it was new but now no one wants it and getting offers on it was almost impossible on just about any trade server. although you are right i should have accounted for overpay.