Suggestion: The Big Kill at 12 keys

"http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12078800 - Haven't sold in 3 weeks ._. " 6 days ago: 'I don't mean to be rude, but I said 14 keys pure ONLY! ' So... yeah, who knows when he switched to 12, but it certainly wasn't 3 weeks ago.

All in all, with only two standing willing sellers at 12 keys, I don't think 12 keys flat is valid. Especially when there appears to be so many quickbuyers looking to snatch them up at 12 keys, always a big flashing sign.

Perhaps. But at some point, quantity matters, too. All from the last 1-2 days:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12798258 - 11 (tried at 12 then reposted)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12804085 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12761026 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12752718 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12755542 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12756498 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12786197 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12787363 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12798384 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12802953 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12750923 - 12

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12746558 - 12

And the majority went quickly by the looks of it. Still strikes me as too early for this much a drop, particularly when things went to 12-13 keys just yesterday.

The whole time to sale business seems tricky to me on promos. I prefer using the most commonly bought and sold price for it. That may not be 12 keys. But I'm just saying... that's the very reason I made this thread: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2107-bills/?hl=bill

Also, there are only 5 pages of people selling the big kill for keys... So you don't really have to show a lot of sellers at 12 to show that that is the most commonly bought and sold price.

People are quick to waive things off as quicksells, but I don't even know if we can use that to objectively evaluate promos. Maybe if we had a standardized idea about what the normal selling time is? Using time to sell, just seems more subjective to me than showing volume. Mind you, I am aware that it's also hard to know what the most commonly bought and sold price is. But I just think that's more objective since you can find trades that way than coming up with a time to sell model.

Not sure if Big Kill quite constitutes a promo, at least in the sense that Bill's/Buds are. They aren't passed around quite so readily or anywhere near as involved in unusuals. But maybe that's where I'm wrong here, there's a reason I won't be handling this suggestion.

Anyway, my biggest sticking issue is the number available on the market, apparant speed to sale is just another flag to me. Typically the biggest sign that it's time for an item to fall to a flat price is that there's so many of it on the market at that price that no one has need to pay more, and that just isn't the case here. Scrounging up solds still doesn't strike me as a solid approach for standard items given the large number of sales remaining unseen.

"large number of sales remaining unseen." - only 5 total pages of big kills for keys in all of outpost. 1-2 pages are trades up >1 week. last page is unbumped.

Really not that many trades going on in 1 day. And all those links I showed are from the last 1-2 days. I'm not even looking at quickbuyer threads.

Having said that, I've still seen a few go for 13, so the price is probably 12-12.5 right now. This is really probably a tossup that will pass cause voters will get this through?

The number of current open trades says little about overall turnover per day.

And yeah, unless people start arriving with counterproof, I expect this will pass. Voters love the piles of blue text, even if 95% unsolds of any amounts of time and quickbuyers.

"The number of current open trades says little about overall turnover per day."

This can't possibly be a true statement, can it? I understand that this is just a rough estimate, but it can't be a bad predictor. 20 pages of buds / keys are an hour old. 1 page of a rare genuine total. Has to be a decent predictor of overall turnover in a day.

Eh. Yeah, you're definitely right there. I'm just being difficult.

Oh, yes I had some technical difficulties which required several closes and re-dos. Sorry about that folks

Only one buyer for 13 keys today, looks like selling for that price is becoming a lot harder:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12797911

I know this isnt going to do anything but i wanna throw it out ; http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12797911

I am still going to upvote for this, because i know how hard it is to sell this

I don't think one badly bumped trade is enough for the 12 key sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12078800

Seems good to me. Upvote from me.

Good proof, upvote. I myself had a hard time selling mine for 13, but 12 went really quick. I only saw one trade open for 13 keys, and that was made months ago and I think the man who made it forgot to close it.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12748981 sold for 13 keys.

it is still possible to sell for 13 keys but i do agree it is quite hard.

Not really solid proof, it's not in his bp anymore and it was listed at a price, but how do you know for certain that it was actually sold at that price?

Because we trust thermal due to his work here. He won't be one of those "hurt durr prais es wrong" guys and I'm certain he can and will provide a screenshot once requested.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/76561198047113343

This is the guy (Kobe Beef) whose name appears on the item history after the seller in question here.

This is the offer of Kobe beef who bought that Big Kill. The payment apparently was a pink BMOC + 2 ref http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12814140 , http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198047113343 ( check BMOC history ). Is a Pink BMOC worth 12 keys + 3.66 refined? So as thermal countered sold for 13 keys, did it ever happen?

On the side note no keys changed hands, and item offers often include overpayment.

Also that guy posted 2 more trades to sell the same Big Kill a couple of days before too, which he closed like the one shown by Thermalx.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/254902

I am certain that unless some Photoshop is used, Thermalx cannot show us the proof here.

ummm... can i stop this for a second? unsolds arent proofs if they are under 2 week old.... just.. please, close the suggestion, and admins of backpack.tf, dont judge me because i published this comment