Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 5.66–5.77 ref

Don't really know if this means half a scrap or 1 scrap. Either way, the whole point of the rule was to give a 1 week cooldown period whether it's 0.5 or 1 scrap. Arguing 3 days for 1 scrap and 7 days for 0.5 scraps is pointless and defeats the purpose of the rule. I think it should be 7 days regardless.

5.77 is happens so fast and its wrong that it isnt in the range anyways.

First rule - Do not suggest a new price range for keys until 3 days have passed since the last one,

Last one was 4 days ago. The scrap change refers to a scrap change on one end, generally making it a total half scrap change in price. You need to wait a week for that.

Also, Valve just made it so you can't idle, I would call that something major.

"Also, Valve just made it so you can't idle, I would call that something major."

As this suggestion shows, what valve did has no implications in the short term. It may in the long run, but right now them doing that hasn't changed anything. Keys are continuing to go up in value.

That is part is honestly the least important sentence in my whole post.

This post follows the rules and I was just clearing up what one scrap meant for you. It is still something major though, whether keys price change dramatically or not remains to be seen, but it is still something major nonetheless.

not true, considering the price of keys in cash just dropped tremendously

Cash =/= steam wallet

And yet this suggestion is raising its price. That is why I said it is meaningless in the context of this suggestion and should not be used as a justification to get an earlier vote.

Sir Jon's original rules were referring to the median, but people were being confused by his wording. It seems my attempts at clarification have fallen flat, so I have edited the rules again.

Since this suggestion is changing the range by more than a scrap, it is within the rules. I think the bigger problem is the lack of proof, not the difference in range

Whether you go by mean or median, it is just a change by 1 scrap, right?

steam wallet=1.2*cash basically, :/ i know its not perfect but given enough time it will go down in the next few days

Can you show us proof of these unsuccessful buyers at 5.55, and also, just because sellers are asking 5.77 doesn't mean that's what they're selling for.

Check the links they are 90% sold.

http://imgur.com/VJnqqnU,LlF5Sz7,RRHsu6t,GUDl59Y,gXKFZ84#0

Some buyers @5.55

u don't have nothing to do ? maybe is better sto this shit pushing every week the price , use your time for RL -.-

Why are we even considering this suggestion? Have you seen his last key suggestion? He says this at the bottom:

"I'm a masochist pls hate me

----------------------------------------

Lol just kidding im just trying to increase my bp"

Just found a seller for 5.33, sold out in less than a minute

Forgot the link, oops http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12937297

Where are the unsuccessful buyers at 5.55?

They seem to have low success according to our research. Not saying they are unsuccesfull. But not succesfull/fast enough for a currency item.

Also as i exprienced, Jon most likely wont care about 5.55 because of buyers at (Higher prices) 5.66

They packed up their things and went for a long holiday.

Hahaha.

Edit: Cleverpun is coming to warn you :P

Well he asked where are they and I told him their whereabouts. This is not a spam or abuse.

I saw a buyer at 5.77 yesterday and I sold 4/5 of my keys for 6 ref. upvote

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12822065 Buyer at 5.77 :3

Not the one I saw, but okay thanks :D

It seems keys will wind up hitting six refined before long.

I put up a trade for 5.66 and within one minute had sold the key at cost.

http://puu.sh/3FRgs.PNG

So as much as I want to see keys stay below six refined, you have my upvote.

Been able to buy quite a few @ 5.66 and sell them @ 5.77. There are still many sellers below 5.66 but their keys sell in seconds.

Don't you guys see what you are doing. Now they will sell it at 5.88. A few times later even you changed it again they will sell them for 6 ref so this keep going...

that in long term will reverse.

idling is not working any longer but there is still a tone of ref in the market to sell keys in a higher range.

comparing the historical lowest key prices from the other hand more keys will circulate so more ref eill be used to trade and hopefully a large portion will be used to crafts.

Maybe that force ref to reduce dramatically from the next months or so

we might at last witness the rise of the ref.

Valve react to the idlers kind a late.but still it looks promising.

hope that this and the summer sales will force the key to drop in previous state quite soon.

as for the suggestion its an upvote

even tf2.finance is reflecting that range , we dont have to accept it yet my opinion let it cool down we need to wait for the week to end.

sorry did i just hear that you can't idle anymore? :D

yes just visit the tf2 site you will see all the dwtails on how valve fix the droping rates and the limitation added about textmode..

to get drops you must play.

You can still idle.

+walk, +left, +attack in idle servers and it is considered active. After a while, people will catch on.

"back to idle I go...."

i think you havent read the update you will have to accept the drop manually to get further drops so

i guess idle is dead you cant do that with text mode

Alright then, set up script to wait an hour, press J, wait, press escape, repeat.

players that are interfering in the drop system with third party software wont get banned insteed all of their items will get deleted.

You don't need to use 3rd party software, skapas, you can do that all in the developers console, which valve allows all players to use. Hell I can use some legos, some clever gearing, and a small electric motor to physically press the keys on my computer if I felt like it.

Counter proof

#nokeys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12826590 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12826419 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12826519 5.33

http://trade.tf/trade/512223271 5.44

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9636050 5.44

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9636032 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12824505 5.44

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12822412 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12819076 5.44

http://bazaar.tf/trade/312147 5.33 -6

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9635355 5.33

http://bazaar.tf/trade/312079 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12815466 5.44

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12814503 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12814402 5.44

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12813343 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12813079 5.33 -2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12812726 5.44 -2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12812514 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12810777 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12807833 5.33 -2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12805775 5.44 -7

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12802556 5.44

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12802482 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12797693 5.44

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12796317 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12795364 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12791482 5.44

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9633556 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12788350 5.44 -3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12786692 5.44 -4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12784347 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12783881 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12781780 5.11 -4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12781717 5.44

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12781393 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12779489 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12777902 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12776705 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12775162 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12774650 5 -2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12772033 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12770754 5.33

http://trade.tf/trade/515420495 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12768792 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12768737 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12767058 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12766489 5.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12766240 5.44

Down with speculation.

We still got people selling under market price

First link i chose:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12807833

4-5 Posts in seconds.

And JON says: "People who sell low either stupid(?) or one of these #savetehkeys guys."

He also says any link salvaged from trade.tf that was sold within 1-2 minute would be deemed quick-sell and would not be accepted.

*Seconds

Doesn't matter, people will still vote up any key increase so their backpacks will increase.

these are not 5.55 or within the price range s

Everything below 5.44 was completely useless counterproof.

As sad as it is, those are quicksales. They sell out in seconds

I've been noticing a lot more cheap key sellers recently.

Automatic textmode idling's been removed with the newest update, so I don't think that key prices will continue to rise for much longer.

1.5 million pieces of ref out there. Considering how slowly it leaves the economy (craft hats are cheaper), it will not become valuable again for quite some time.

considering 99% of idling was just crippled metal prices should be going up sharply soon, this suggestion is way to early after the last one though.

lol 99% of idling was crippled, you have some concrete evidence or just big talks? In your case you were crippled because of VAC ban.

Cheating and cheaters both are disgraceful.

It's a pity that reputed sites like backpack.tf would not ban cheaters from contributing to this community.

You guys slow down. dont take it to the bad directions. Making a good comeback dont make any of you better.

Sorry to mess up your suggestion, but I cannot tolerate cheaters. I feel disgusted.

The VAC system is automated and contacting Steam Support to report cheaters isn't necessary. Valve has a zero-tolerance policy for cheating and will not lift VAC bans under any circumstances.

http://steamrep.com/profiles/76561197970988497

http://www.vacbanned.com - 76561197970988497

https://support.steampowered.com/kb_article.php?ref=7849-Radz-6869#whatisvac

http://steamcommunity.com/actions/WhatIsVAC

I like how you edited your initial post, however you should know that not only can the moderators see that you did that but everyone on the site can. I'd call that cheeting sweetheart.

ރ Rogue ރ · modified about an hour ago · Score: -1

Fail. Fail hard. Don't attack people for providing information just because it may harm the value of your key stockpile. Learn from this.

I said stop it. It shouldnt be taken as big deal.

[url]http://www.teamfortress.com/post.php?id=11105[/url]

New update effectively killed automatic idling. They'll even VAC ban you for trying to use 3rd party things to circumvent the new rules (just a heads up).

Don't you think that if the metal prices went up then this would give them all the more reason to do idling, even though it would be a bit painful but it would be well worth it?

Yeah, but you'd have to do something by your computer while you idle and check for drops every 20 minutes if you want the ~same yield as before.

I was reading something about application of hotkeys to go around it. Lets see how it turns out. But is there anywhere we can see data as to many idling accounts exist? Or we use the good old guess work?

As a metal trader, I can see this happening:

Idling has been stopped and metal production has been severely dropped.

People no longer have an excuse for the high key-prices, because with the severe drop in metal production, keys will get more abundant than metal.

People try to get rid of their keys, in favor of the rapidly rising metal. This results in people getting desperate to sell and selling for lower and lower.

Keys will crash to hell, and metal rises until it stabilizes at a way higher price.

Due to the key crash and inconsistency in their pricing, metal will be considered a more viable currency, and keys will be used more for unboxing.

Due to the drop of key price and rise of refined, unboxing will be more profitable, and because this encourages unboxing, unusuals will become more abundant and cheaper, while profit can also be made with stranges.

Basically, the entire economy eventually stabilizes in a way more accessible way, where everyone has a chance.

1.5 million pieces of ref out there. Considering how slowly it leaves the economy (craft hats are cheaper), it will not become valuable again for quite some time

Keep in mind though, that metal leaves the economy in other ways than just crafting. Many people become trade banned, and some people who are trade banned may be quite experieced, and have a lot of metal. A big portion of that 1.5 million ref isn't accessible.

The same is true of every item. I would argue that more keys and hats leave the economy than metal for reasons like that, since a lot of traders prefer to keep their assets in keys and hats, not metal. Just go ask Long218.

overoptimistic but quit true in the long run.

1500000 ref to be used 500000 crafts should take place.

something that wont happened any time soon

that update will affect the economy slowly we might have to wait more than a year for it to take effect.

"Idling has been stopped and metal production has been severely dropped."

Any documented data to support this statement?

"I can see this happening" FUUUUTUUUUURE. And [url]http://www.teamfortress.com/[/url]

Hmm.. future you say?

As a Captain Poot, I can see this happening:

Gaben learns to count to 3.

Team Fortress 3 releases, making all currency higher than Gabe's half eaten snicker bar. (This is the truth I speak of)

Sandviches will be the new earbuds, while earbuds are a secondary slot item.

I then see weapons being sold at the Mann Co. store for over a few keys (totally not happening atm)

Also, Pyro reveals itself, and we all find out he likes tater toddlers.

Basically, it's 2 am in the morning and I can't get sleep so I'm writing thi- zzzzzzz

Its on the tf2 website, was patched like 2days ago

Read the question again, this time carefully please and then use you little fingers to type :)

Well, although some people will go to 'manual idling', the metal does still get used in crafting, and this also means it'll be harder to use multiple accounts to idle free weps. Although this should lower overall metal production from idlers, we have yet to see how it actually plays out.

Because people are starting to take the Keyconomy as a joke.

There won't be any sales or atleast genuine sales at 8ref. Idling was nurfed in the last update anyway you can no longer recieve drops in text mode or recieve a second drop before the first is manually accepted. These changes mean that effectivly 99% of idling is now gone, a user would have to sit and watch his account now... or just play to recieve items. With the above in mind metal will once again become a rare resorse and fairly quickly as people have formed the habit of crafting hats with it. Within a few months you should see a reversal of key prices in regard to metal as the excess is removed from the market by natural consumption.

what i don't understand (sorry for posting here) is if you can still have drops at normal rate on trade plaza servers etc, where its easy to live a lot of time without die and then without the message of new items...but if you press "esc" you can see that you have a drop waiting and press "j" as default "accept" you get the drop...i think that people that dont play on normal maps will have problems now due to this

I'm not familiar with any server plug ins which stop your in game notification, do you mean if you don't die? you wont miss your item drops, the drop timer is mearly paused untill you accept the item. you can only recieve drops on VAC secure servers. Hope that helps.

The conditions for item drops aren't the maps, but whether or not it's VAC-secured.

After that condition is met, normal play will drop items as usual.

although im against key inflation this is the first one since a long time ago i agree :/ upvote

A decent amount of counter evidence, I'll have to downvote for now. 5.55 and lower still seems doable. Also, aren't we supposed to wait a week before doing a small change?

His counterproof is even lower than the current price.

Maybe the current price is too high.

Makes sense

Idling's been nerfed, lots of people are selling under the current price, and the last change was only 3 days before this one; I'm going to have to downvote.

People buying under the price doesnt change the fact that there are high buyers.

And its only been a day. You cant expect a big chance that quickly.

Key prices today seem to me like a battle between the Haves and the Have-Nots. Those who have multiple keys trade amongst themselves and drive up the price, and the less fortunate masses have to go along with the prices these key merchants set because there's no other options (besides Mann co store or not buying entirely). People who own keys tend to up vote these suggestions to increase their bp. I for one would like to see the price stabilize, but not fall. Falling key prices would screw up this economy more than rising ones.

no unsuccessful buyers at 5.55? sorry but thats a downvote from me

I am saying again. 5.55 buyers still get MAX. 2Keys per day

But its currency item. its not succesfull enough.

well if you can still buy for 5.55 then a change is not needed

-_-

I can also buy Keys for 1 Ref, we should include it in the range.

Thank you.

you're right. *opens suggestion of keys 1-1.33 ref*

really? can you prove that?

http://puu.sh/3HiYO.png

See?

not bad not bad, but can you show me more trades of people selling them for 1 ref?

Yeah I can sell my keys @ 1 ref to my favourite buyers.

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key - Look here: this week the price dropped by ~ 10%

I am a couple of days ago is very easy to buy keys for 5.33 refs each ( 5.55-5.66 -now it big price) .

++I know arose a big problem with idling servers-will not be cheap refs

The steammarket has nothing to do with the trading system.

They're selling keys cheaper on the community market because you can sell them for Steam wallet money there. The summer sale means that lots of people are now selling keys for wallet money to buy discounted games.

My Godness, no.

BTW. Just letting You all know, You can still buy keys for 5.44 .

Staying neutral.

Keys for 5.44 sell in seconds. Even scrap.tf's 5.66 keys are bought in minutes.

sold my keys for 5.66.

Players can't idle now. Soon the "value" of scrap, rec and ref will rise. I don't think is a good idea rise the key price in this scenario.

Oh noes, now you have to play the game to get 0.33 Ref a week.

That's not my point. Srsly u think it?

Just because valve ceased idling doesn't mean weapons will stop dropping completely. With this many players, the amount of metal will still increase, just at a slower rate.

not quit right the ref farmers where not just buying keys

they where also buying 1 ref hats and cheap tools for metal so they where fueling the traders with ref ref that was used for crafts or key transactions,

i dont think a new player would play 20 weeks just to buy a key.

a new player would buy a key from store/market and use that to buy hats

ref for those guys it is a crafting material mostly.

I have 6 accs, Only play in one and use the other ones to idle. Now I can't idle anymore and my "farm of Refs" stop working. I can't buy keys for a high price becouse get the metal is like 5x harder. Also a lot of players do the same, u can easily find someone with lots of accs to idle.

what 3.66?

Let him have his nostalgic moment; I can assure you we've all had ours regarding key prices.

Im downvote because of this: http://www.teamfortress.com/post.php?id=11105

Key prices should be decrease.

They won't anytime soon. Maybe in the long run, but not now.

1.5 million pieces of ref out there. Considering how slowly it leaves the economy (craft hats are cheaper), it will not become valuable again for quite some time

Get a better reason. And dont expect big chances that quickly i must say.

Maybe this will make key prices change in the future, but thats not actual proof, sepecially at such an early time

I believe that people has already accepted the currently crappy economy and key price wont really go down :/

i would out on making any new suggestions on the key right now, metal is probably going to become a lot more valuable making the key's price drop sorry this one is a no for me.

That makes no sense.

1.5 million pieces of ref out there. Considering how slowly it leaves the economy (craft hats are cheaper), it will not become valuable again for quite some time

this copypadste explains it.

yeah that's true but i don't see the price of keys changing anytime soon I think we will see this price for a long time maybe with minor fluctuations.. I'd give about 8-10 months maybe longer before this no idling situation takes its effects but I don't see the need for the key's price right now to change. and sorry about the typo on my previous comment

I see 7.5 ref as the place where keys will stop rising, since (assuming metal doesn't drop again), is the amount of metal you would need to sell for money to buy a key in the mann co store. Also, with the market and independent sellers, keys can never reach 2.50 in real money value.

On the other hand with the obesity of profiting with keys is making it hard to find any sales @5.77. "

wise words from the guy with 43 keys trying to raise the key price.

"Before taking a look at links i have to say that i dont like supporting with buyer links."

"Anyways. 5.55(As i was a buyer myself) "

This entire description screams "I'm trying to manipulate the price up"

I really hope valve does more steps to stop this shit, removing idling sadly won't be enough to stop this boulder from tumbling.

Oh I'm sorry. i will convert them into 2 buds to convince you better next time.

Seriously, take it whatever you want. But i must say that i have no purpose of manupulating the price//Making a profit. As i made suggestions that tried to lower the prices. If there will be any fall on keys. I'm going to be REFLECTING that too. And if you still think im a manipulator; i gotta say that i ain't giving a single shit about my bp's value.

Everyone who wishes key prices to go up, wants to make profit -_-

Everybody wants to make profit. Where have you been?

Keys will rise based on the market, constant supply to a constant demand. but its hard to gauge raising the price, as people need keys. Most keys on the market are easily snatched for the price that the seller sets. Its hard to say, im going to remain neutral

Ive seen people on the market, many actually, who are trying to sell for 6 ref or more:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12837690

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12838737

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12708295

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11762627 <--This guy makes me wanna punch a baby...

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12856607

This is our problem, currency has become an item to people now. Its not a form of buying things, and one of these guys wanted overpay for his keys in items. Price wise, keys have never been more divided to each individual, the same gos for items. Just last week i saw a guy buying last breath's for 1 key and reselling them for 3 keys. In my opinion, there's a different between profit and ripping people off :/ and this 6 refined price has been there since the keys were 5.33.

sad but unfortunately true, I had trouble buying keys for 5.77 yesterday

Edit: remaining neutral, since you do have 43 and can't really be considered objective in this matter.

gaben, put this in the next update: hats only cost 2 ref to craft.

That would make craft hats fall in value, not metal

it would make metal have a more valuable use, dropping the amount of metal slowly.

Not really... the only reason craft hats are 1.33 each is because the crafting recipe keeps them that way. If the recipe decreased that would make craft hats less valuable, it would not make metal more valuable.

it would give metal a use that people would use more often. it won't make metal more valuable, but it may slightly decrease the amount of metal, because of the overflow of people wanting to try it out because of hype.

Finally someone else that thinks this. And combined with no idling, it would make metal worth something, helping to put keys and buds back in their places.

I wonder how affects to the key's prices in ref. the fact that in the community market you can easyly in less than $2.

1.8 actually, keys went down mathematically for a long time, but keys in refined went up because backpack.tf wont halt the key price

or go off of math and stats which is how the real world works

wanna bet that it wont? i'll give you my unusual if on 1 january 2014 keys are 10 refined on, if it is below 10 ref i get all the items in your bp.

if you're so sure about it, then you could have a serious profit.

I have 7 keys atm, and I get people adding me for 5.66. I would actually like the price to decrease back to it's place instead. Even if I have 7 keys, It just feels like crap suffering paying 5.66. WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PAST? :(

It became the present

That was the most perfect response

clever pun plz refer to the time when backpack.tf started, keys were 2.6 and have not gone down since it's creation.

Keys also have not gone up much* between their creation and backpack.tf's creation

care to explain that?

Metal deflation, demand spikes, and greater market awareness.

If you want a more thorough answer there are dozens of threads on the subject in the forums.

I love backpack.tf, BUT it has wrecked the key price apart.

Or maybe it's the players who 'wrecked' it by constantly asking for more metal for their keys.

backpack.tf

^Thats ~~What~~ Why its happened.

Sold 6 keys for 5.77 each yesterday. http://tinyurl.com/mmjrlwy

Upvote.

You know what i dont understand, people that profit off of keys. You sell a key for 5.66, sell it for 5.77 (1 scrap profit). Next day price goes up 5.77-5.88. You buy a key for 5.77 and sell it for 5.88. Well guess what your still making 1 scrap profit, the scrap you made with the first key is gone because you bought a key for 5.77. So your getting no where.

If you buy a key for 5.66 and sell it for 5.77, then buy a key for 5.77 and sell it for 5.88 you have 2 more scrap than when you started.

A change in price is irrelevant if you sell them before the change. Your statement makes no sense

Yes you gain 2 scrap more but the value of your backpack hasnt changed cause the price of the key is increasing. You started with 1 keys worth and your still at 1 keys worth

Who cares what the value of your backpack is listed as? You, personally, have more metal than when you started. Your statement still makes no sense.

Since idling has been abolished, refined is worth more, therefore key prices should come down

1.5 million pieces of ref out there. Considering how slowly it leaves the economy (craft hats are cheaper), it will not become valuable again for quite some time.

And there are 0.5 million keys. By this ratio, keys should be worth 1.5/0.5 refined. 1.5/0.5=3. Considering this ratio, and taking into account the number of scrap metal and reclaimed metal, I would estimate that there is about 2 million refined in total. 2/0.5=4. Therefore, keys should cost around 4 refined tops.

This argument actually supports the lowering of key prices, seeing as if you use total number as a marking point, for every one key there is approximately four refined.

ya but if it isnt a pro key up thing cleverpun wont listen to you, math apparently has no power over the fact that you should be able to get keys cheaper using it.

Also keep an eye on the trend of keys in community market, they keep going down but here prices keep going up

I just got tired of cleverpun posting that garbage; He/she posted the exact same thing about 5 times, and it doesn't even support their argument.

Keys are going down in the community market because demand for steam wallet has increased, not because keys are less valuable.

You're not covering the entire picture. You're ignoring the fact that keys are more useful than metal, and that drives up demand. Keys can be used to unbox, and while metal can be used to craft hats, it's cheaper to buy a couple of craft hats (and there are plenty of craft hats to go around).

Everytime someone uses a key it leaves the economy, but metal doesn't always leave the economy when someone crafts a hat.

I can't say I agree with that, seeing as they both only have one use. However, keys are more limited in that one use, because they can't open the "special" crates. And in all technicality, there is no way to hats into metal. You can bank them, but there are also key banks. Keys are only used by unboxers, just as metal in only used in crafting. The real reason that keys have this inflated value can be found in the ideals of a capitalist society. When someone who has the resources to control an item, they can drive prices up on a whim.

I'd have to relate key prices to gas prices; Neither have a real reason to increase, other than personal gain. The ones driving this increase, in both cases, come up with bogus excuses to explain the increase and justify more. When, in actuality, it's all for personal gain.

Conclusion for the lazy: Economies are driven by greed

Keys are not more limited in use than metal, just the opposite; every time a new crate comes out you can guarantee yourself profit by unboxing. You also have a small chance at unusual hats. Crafting gives you a small chance at profit, but you can use hats instead of metal, meaning metal is intrinsically less valuable than keys.

* Conclusion for the lazy: Economies are driven by supply and demand. FTFY.

Take it to the forums if you want to discuss this further, suggestions are not the place.

Profit? Unboxing? Aren't those opposites? Crafting loses 1.66 max(Right now), while unboxing can come up with a cancerous strange, losing 5.44(Yet again, right now). Sure unboxing has an approximate 1% chance at an unusual, but then again, there is also a chance a crafter can get a lowcraft, or a collector's number. If you want it to stay in the forums, don't post

"1.5 million pieces of ref out there. Considering how slowly it leaves the economy (craft hats are cheaper), it will not become valuable again for quite some time." Five times.

That is exactly what I described; a bogus excuse. In this case, it doesn't even support the argument.

And don't call it supply and demand. THERE IS AN INFINITE SUPPLY OF BOTH. This comes from being a virtual item, thus creating an infinite number. If anything, metal is more limited. An account only gets 0.33 in weapons per week. I could buy a thousand keys in a minute if I wanted to.

Economies of today are not driven by supply and demand. They are driven by profit, as previously stated.

I guess you are clearly overlooking the fact that people do not like to buy the keys @ $2.50, that is the only reason grey markets exist. Ah and moreover valve has not put a full stop on the idling, they just tried to make it a bit more hard. Now you have to press a button 9 times to get 10 weapons, which is being achieved by using hotkeys.

Also for the idlers, whose main motive is to make money, you think this small hindrance matters to them when you predict metal would be selling at price of gold? If the metal price jumps from current $0.34 to $ 1.34, as per your prediction, I don't know which books you read, but common sense says that the number of idling accounts would increase rather then decrease.

Something to think about !!!!!

um, isnt this nothing BUT a giant forum on keys? this is EXACTLY the place for that stuff

Also, what about the cost of the new crate 1.3 ref or so?

Thousands of low and special craft numbers?Don't forget that.

but metal doesn't always leave the economy when someone crafts a hat.

YES IT DOES.

>Crafts with two hats

>metal supply remains exactly the same.

Please do more research on your comments before posting comment spam

Not always, however, the same can be said about keys. You can recraft hats, but you can also use different keys. (I.e. Summer Crates)

This being said, there are some recipes people use that need metal, not other hats.

someone just got owned...

lol what?

Rarer things are not necessarily more valuable things. There's 70,502 earbuds. There are 6100 hunger forces.

IF SOMEONE CAN PROVIDE COUNTER-PROOF AS OF TODAY THEN I WILL ADMIT THAT KEYS CAN STILL BE BOUGHT/SOLD FOR 5.55 NOT AS A QUICKSELL. If anyone looks on outpost these days, you'll see that 5.55-5.66 is pretty much gone, and 5.77 sellers go by quickly too. And don't respond to this asking for proof, I don't wanna post 9999 links and label them all for you to read in 2 seconds. That's partially why I never suggest prices for items like this. :P

hm... in all this talk of refined "going up in value" i had a funny thought in my head.

It be funny as hell if a server that charged keys for donor perks changed to metal...and the people were idlers..lol...

I've sold over a 100 keys at 5.88 ref. and 6 ref on my bot. Backpack.tf prices are really outdated.

Oh volpi... :P

if someday key get to 7.33 refined ( the actual price of key in the store ) what would happend ?

Refprice will decrease.

That comment does nothing buy gives hope to sellers, lol.

And i'm a seller too =P

You remember 1 Ref? No? Hmkay

So can anybody explain to me why every item is how low you can get it for but keys are how high you can sell them for?

No, realistic prices.

What?

It means that when doing prices on items here it goes off of the lowest you can possibly buy it for, while with keys its how high you can possibly sell it for

A random poot just passing by...

How the brain of a "#SavethekeyzzZ-guy" works:

> Opinion = Fact

> Somebody disproves opinion with good counterarguments

> Doesn't respond (cause no arguments are left), dislikes the comment

> Acts like nothing happened, feels like a king

Example:

> "Duh he owns 43 keys, he just wants 4,77 Ref profit cuz dats really a lot

Downvote"

> *Somebody posts numerous good reasons why the number of keys, which the suggester owns, doesn't affect the suggestion in any way.

> No/bad reply, just dislikes the comment

Whoever dislikes this comment admits and proves this fact.

I want to buy keys too at 5.55 ref. Can you please please please find me a seller who has keys and is selling for 5.55 ref? I cannot find anyone selling less then 5.66-5.77. I shall be in your debt for my whole life.

That's an argument? I'm getting swamped by pages of failed six ref (Or more) sellers. If you want to buy for 5.55, make a trade buying for 5.55.

Also @your comment up above that I can no longer reply to, the point for the whole key inflation is to make money. And notice how the price on keys has dropped off on the market? That means they aren't worth as much. Also, I wouldn't be surprised is valve start nuking "idling" servers. Not to mention some people don't have time to sit by their computer clicking hotkeys all day. Plus, "sellers" selling at 5.55 are often bought out by people who do sit at their computer all day waiting for a good deal. Since your new "idling" method involves this, you should have no problem snatching up deals. Like this one, that sold for 5.44 (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12903315 ). Or this guy, who sold 2 or 3 at 5.33 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12901760 ).

Edit: Any mod care to explain this warning: http://i.imgur.com/wWjtUri.png ?

Thank you very much for pointing out that I have to sit all day too next to my computer, if I have to buy keys @ 5.55 ref. And putting up a buying trade is a big fail too, when there are buyers at 5.77 ref, I wonder if I should I rely on my luck too much.

And mate people who run idle farms are not noobs with computers to sit next to computers pressing keys, I am sure you would agree. Oh also even if they have to make money they will, its better then sitting on computer and looking for deals all day, far better. And this website does not work on the principle that you sit and wait all day to get a suggested price. The suggested price here refers to the price at which you can buy an article anytime.

"Good things come to those who are patient." Also, I didn't see any 5.77 buyers in this post. And, as seen here http://www.teamfortress.com/post.php?id=11105 avoiding their anti idle measures may result in a ban.

Another thing, where did you get your information on the suggested price? I couldn't find this idea anywhere in the FAQ. And yes, this website does in part work on that. Take high end vintages. These can take a long time to sell. If something is still acquirable at a price, then that should be considered. One day is not a huge period of time.

In summary: Using programs to idle is a bannable offense, and buying at a lower price of 5.55 has not been proven impossible, rendering this suggestion invalid.

if you need more info on the suggested price, try digging into past key suggestions and reading moderators' closing remarks, else you can wait for an admin to respond and clear you up on this matter.

And forget about external programs, if metal went at price of gold then I am sure people who play this game to make real money would not mind clicking buttons manually if it meant earning one-extra dollar per click. Metal farming is directly related to grey market, I hope you know what grey market is.

Anyhow except thoughts/guesses/comments do you have any real documented data to show that 'x' number of idling accounts exist is the world? And any data to show that idling accounts went rogue? And keys going down on steam market is directly related to summer sale.

stop pushing keys for nothing -.- really annoing <,<

Ehmm.. People are paying more = Higher price must be reported.

The website is useless without an accurate pricelist, cause this is its originally function.

wow .. is this in steam rules ? Higher price must be reported., That Must isn't right ......

This is the point of THIS website. If you don't like the concept, leave us alone.

Everyone's saying how difficult it is to buy keys for 5.66 refined or less and I'm just sitting on trade servers not even looking for keys and stumble upon these sellers: http://imgur.com/a/4rlPV (this is only today, too)

so many of your sellers @ 5.77 are bots or are no longer selling for 5.77

i reckon the price should go up :P

hi there,im just gonna say that the drop system was fixed so people may not idle for weapons and hats so yeah.the price should go down by quite a lot.just gonna say that.

1.5 million pieces of ref out there. Considering how slowly it leaves the economy (craft hats are cheaper), it will not become valuable again for quite some time.

cleverpun, you've said that a dozen times now. ;_;

People also keep on spamming these things about the idling fix, without reading the posts.

The thing about the idling system has also been posted a dozen times now.

I'm fairly certain if another individual spammed an irrelevant piece of information this many times, they would be getting warnings.

They are actually going to change the amount of metal it takes to craft :P

Who said that? Cuz your friend who knows a guy who is buddies with Valve's janitor is not a reliable source.

Get some proof or stop spreading rumors.

Cleverpun you just ended the conversation by asking proof. They never respond back after asked for proof, only dislike your comment, in other words admit defeat.

I wasnt the one who disliked him xD. I respect all admins on this site greatly but stop kissing up to him to be on the 'winning side'. No offense clever.

This has nothing to do with him as a admin. I have asked for the same proof, just like cleverpun, in all my comments and that marks the end of conversations. It would be helpful if instead of your beautiful comment you actually gave some proof.

I doubt it is real it was just a rumour that a few guys heard.

Sir, are you stuck in 2012?

Back then it was possible to even buy keys and uncrate for the people that are normal and no key inflation zombies...

Nobody is going to lower the price just because some kids can't unbox anymore. Other people are paying more and the highest offer wins.

exectly what I ment, thanks for making my argument solid -_-

You weren't making an argument, you were just throwing out words and hoping something would stick.

Every thing I say has a reason. That's what smart people do.

2 things..... one why do we keep having to RAISE THE PRICE OF KEYS.... 2 MONTHS AGO YOU WERE LUCKY TO SELL KEYS FOR 5.33 AND CAN BUY THEM IN AN INSTANT FOR 5 REF, also how do you make a suggestion on bp.tf.... i cant find it can someone send me a link?

Select an item. Just below the chart you see "suggest a new price". Click on it, read the rules (very important) & you can begin :)

I don't want to sound mean, but can we end with the "Good old days", those days are over, and we have to move on.

Keys are going to decrease in price soon since you cant idle anymore making refined more valuable

Feel free to show us sellers at 5.55 Ref who still have stock.

dude if you sell to 5.55 they can buy. if you are not a sordid you can sell and buy evrything oh they can buy from 5.77 YES THEY CAN CAUSE OF SORDİDS

Whats a sordid?

self-seeker

Might I ask how having key prices increase, make your backpack value increase?

As i understand the key itself becomes worth more in refined though refined will be the one dropping in value, In terms of refined your bp value increase but it wouldnt in terms of money value, Will upvote for now but still hoping that metal will increase in price again from its 0.30cent value to mabye around 0.40cent

On the other hand an opportunity to invest also comes in, Store value in keys or metal, Keep your keys now and get no change in value when keys go down in value, or sell keys for the current price and when refined increase you can buy more keys when the key prices drop, Though of coarse it's gonna be a very long-term investment with the whole no-idling thing just happening now, Might i ask as well why some people say its better to keep value in hats rather then metal?

its called going on a trade server: "Buying Keys 5.77" i get waaaayyy to many trade requests. Too earily. Downvoted

I'm sleepy though not going to sleep yet, a very long and draggy comment that probably will drift from the topic

...plan for the future

Keep the current keys i have

Stockpile alot of weapons, Use current metal to scrapbank alot of weapons,

When price of keys increase well good for you continue to keep them

Then when refined seemingly becomes harder to craft, Hopefully price of refined will try to climb back up dropping price of refined, how will this happen, Players looking to buy keys at the current future price would take too long and key sellers will find it hard to sell keys(seems possible but at the same time sounds stupid), key sellers think that only way to sell there keys is too lower their selling price ( which also sounds weird since this would probably only happen if that seller really wants metal for some reason).

Price of keys drop on backpack.tf, new traders or players who hate high key prices can sell keys at the new prices,

You having scrapbank a motherload of weapons, can now craft metal and buy keys at the very very very distant future or far past of 2 refined,

Sleepy and there's probably alot of holes in what i wrote,

Though

2 weapons = 1 scrap ( so unique weapons would never go higher in price, no matter the change in supply of these weapons due to "no-more-idle")

and 9 scrap = 1 refined

When weapons are only rewarded to active players those mutiple idlers accounts become useless unless they want to be continuously playing on all of their accounts to get more then the cap drops a week,

Keys probably gonna be worth 6 refined

Metal will still enter the economy though slower, it still will,

New players or those not usually a trader and don't have alot of value,

Try to slowly gain metal to get a key to unbox a crate, But once this player learns about the value of hats and miscs items would probably rather buy the hats and miscs he wants instead of rolling a dice on a crate,

Craft hats(worth 1.33/1.66)should have a limit of increasing to what should be 3 refined since thats what it takes to craft them, The only reason craft hats are value at their 1.33/1.66/ 1key++

values is because :

1) how they look ,if they are a player favourite hat then it would be worth more, if they looks like crap then probably not,who set the minimum price for craft hats at 1.33, i dont know but it seems alright there,

2)how much people sell them for, An item would be valued differently between players, because they like the hat or not, Then people who become price setters,

How this happens, Always a supply/demand thing, Someone selling lets say Backbiter's Billycock a hat worn by a spy worth 1.33 according to this site, It's worth 1.33 refined cause people sell at that price(high supply/competitive pricing)

It's not a hat that has a higher demand compared to it's supply,

Which i'm sure anyone either old enough or anyone who studied economy or business studies would know, Supply Up, Demand Low = Lower Price

and there's probably only one way your gonna be able to raise a price on a low demand item, Price Fixing, When everyone who is sellling one agrees to sell the item at a certain price, If that's even possible which actually it is, Talk to everyone selling a Backbiter's Billycock and ell them sell at 1 key, the next time someone search for a Backbiter's Billycock it would be selling for 1 key,not being able to find one worth 1.33ref according to backpack.tf prices a player who really wants it may buy it anyway, then comes price change on backpack.tf

So i think i explained more on craft hat pricing according to my understanding,

Now weapons mostly off the unique quality is quite simple will always be worth 0.05 scrap because when 2 weapons are crafted will make a scrap, theirs no special chance it becomes anything else like crafting hats,

weapons will forever be worth half a scrap and only worth a scrap to someone looking for the weapon specifically,

Meh, back to the subject at hand

Metals can be crafted into game, +add supply to economy

Metals can be used to craft hats - subs supply from economy

Keys bought from Mann-co store +a new key is born into the economy

Key used on a crate - key leaves economy

Now just looking at this, it would seem likely that keys are surely rarer then refined on any field, looking that active players would get at least 2reclaimed per week,

though theres always a probability that keys are always being added to the economy because their has to be someone buying from mannco store,

a very dumb way to think of it but always a probability,

though another reason for key price increase is,

1) Buyers and Resellers

- If 100 Players owned keys and sold them at 2refined

- The new 100 Players(2) own keys worth 2 refined as that is what they bought them for, later sell their keys at 2.33 refined in order to earn profit.

- The new 80 Players(3) (lets say 20 keys got used) own keys worth 2.33 refined as that is what they bought them for, later sells keys for 2.66 refined

The price will continue to increase as players don't use keys as the tools they are,

It's all under a business thinking, The Key may be worth 2.50USD (imagine were dealing with real cash now)

If I buy 100 keys at 2.50USD from a person then each of these keys are worth 2.50USD to me, but if im gonna earn a profit off this I'm gonna have to mark up, So i sell them for 3.00USD someone buys them from me, to them it is worth 3.00USD not the original 2.50USD, It continues unless this 3.00USD person uses what he buys instead of reselling,

Which begs the question why keys are a currency,

Well I can't say for sure for this but theres always my thoughts why,

Demand for keys is never going to fall to something people will never want.

As they are a bridge to value , Uncrating can give you something worth 1.33ref or something worth thousands of more keys, But why keys why not thousands of refined,

Refined and Keys will never have a low demand due to its uses,

Keys will never be worth more in real world currency but metal value will drop if keys become more valuable,

I really have driven off my coarse now and not sure what im typing about anymore bleh i will have to take a look at what i wrote later ,

If you actually read(readed) the whole thing, thank you , though im not sure you should have since it might have been alot of babble about tf2 economy but it has its complexity and i think i should find somewhere to explain abit more in complete detail and in a more organized fashion,

If you have anymore understanding of it and want to correct my thoughts please do so but if you want too please explain properly don't just say this isnt right and thats bullcrap, please explain why it isnt right, I anaylze what i understand from it and type ,

hmmm i think typing 7000 words help you burn 200 calories so any girls out there lazy to take a 20min jog, type, good luck lol

reason for long post : i used to be a blogger, used to be cause lazy to update :P

Except this ain't your blog. Take it to the forums

Hope it helps:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12772769

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12825556

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11279279

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10830421

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12451301

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11671543

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12674883

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11591915