Conservative price drop time, people are beginning to sell for lower, there are many unsold for 3 and 3.33 refined.

Selling for under the current price:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12903427 - 1.88 ref (sold, probably outlier)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12905305 - 2.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12869780 - 2.66 ref

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9636858 - 2.66 ref (sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12874618 - 2.77 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12876903 - 2.88 ref (sold)

Unsolds in current range:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12842542 - 3 ref, 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12904581 - 3 ref, 1 hour

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12895242 - 3 ref, 7 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12882178 - 3 ref, 16 hours (got an add but item is still in BP)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12857123 - 3 ref, 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12808581 - 3 ref, 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12862961 - 3 ref, 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12897871 - "bp.tf min price", 5 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12807060 - 3.22 ref, 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12759999 - 3.33 ref, 4 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12802637 - 3.33 ref, 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12867342 - 3.33 ref, 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12863091 - 3.33 ref, 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12694315 - 3.33 ref, 6 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12864601 - 3.33 ref, 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12840360 - 3.33 ref, 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12780623 - "high bp.tf price", 3 days

Classifieds

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/30141/6/0

http://i.imgur.com/PV0CiEj.png

1 for 2.77 ref, many others for 3 ref and a few on 3.33 ref

Let me know what you think. I can be reached at gaben@valvesoftware.com. Or post below. And my favorite class is the spy.

Just a couple more

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12858480 - 2 ref (willing to 1:1 with pip boy)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12902293 - 2.33 ref sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12890072 - willing to 1:1 on metal or naggen (3 and 2-2.33 respectively

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12911935 - one more selling for 2.66