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3 in existance, 3 on outpost, overpay is calculated in all instances. Hopefully my final attempt on this hat.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11306469 - Sold for Harvest Cowl + 1 bud + festive rocket = 8.8 buds, definitely underpriced and an outlier
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12184723 - seems to have done a 2:1, his phos bomber + memory leak brainiac(~5.5) for a sulph bomber(mid price 22.75)
22.75 - 5.5 = 17.25
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12184723 - Had a B/O of 20 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13062059 - also B/O of 20, Sold for sulph bonk boy(~16.2), buyer said he added, but I checked histories and I could not find anything significant added.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12184723 - seems both of these hats were traded for sulphurous brown bomber: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12099123
sulphurous bb is 20-25.5, mem leak brainiac is 5.5-8, so your suggested price is kind of within that range.