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3 of these in existance, all are on outpost. One of the original unboxer, the other hasn't sold in a few months, and the last has sold a few times recently. Overpay is calculated.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13030333 - B/O 3 buds
This person bought the hat for 2 pure, check bud histories: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198050767080?time=1374562800
He sold it for a Burning Solo Topi(~2.5): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13031289
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12972311
Looks like it sold for just over a bud, outlier.
You include unusual overpay?
"Overpay is calculated."
Upvoted than.
this trade http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11752047 has numerous offers above your suggested price
sulphurous bombing run: ~3 buds
blizzardy gridiron + 1 bud: ~2.8 buds
disco beatdown bonk leadwear: ~dunno but more than 2 that's for sure
The grid + bud would actually be around 2.6 if you account for overpay, so it's not that far above the range.
The sulpherous BR is 2.4 after accounting for unusual overpay.
The disco bonk leadwear is more than 2 most definitely, unfortunately it doesn't have a bp.tf price. It has a B/O of 3 though, same as this hat, so I don't know.
Edit: best offer on the disco bonk is a blizz tossle, which is 2.8 after overpay.
Going to resuggest with 2-2.8.