Misty Skull Charmer's Chapeau (9.5-11 buds)

Trade #1: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13288863 (duped)

Sold for Burning Milkman (~6.5 buds) and unknown sweets

Sweets can be inferred based on backpack history:

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198056406627?time=1375340400 --> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198056406627?time=1375426800

buds = $42.75 on backpack.tf

backpack value went from $590 to $140 = $450

$450 minus the unusual overpay from the Milkman (.8 buds from average) $42.75*.8 = $34 | $450 - $34 = $416

$416 divided by price of buds $42.75 = ~9.7 buds decrease in backpack value

History of Milkman: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13273147

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Trade #2: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12240282 (clean)

Sold for Harvest Moon Cowl (~7.7 buds) and traced an uncraftable Voodoo Juju (~9 keys) as sweets = ~8.1 buds

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198064089779?time=1373871600 --> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198064089779?time=1373958000

Side Note:

He had been looking to quicksell which may have influenced his decision to take a "lower" offer.

Side Note:

Kirby does not show up in the history of the Cowl because it seems he quickly resold the Cowl for a Beams Mirror and TF Logo Beak (~5.5 buds) since bmilenki in the history of all of those right where you would expect him to be if this were to happen.

Cowl History: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12708442

Mirror and Beak Histories: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12607312 (even states sold for Cowl)

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Trade #3: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12858288 (duped)

Sold for Cloudy Trophy Belt and Dead Presidents Armored Authority (~11 buds) unknown if sweets were added on either side, and very hard to trace

History of Trophy and AA: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12968358

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Conclusion:

Sales appearing to be occurring in a rather large range value-wise, the two most recent sales occur higher than the sale of the Cowl, so I am basing my suggestion off of those two sales. I believe the Cowl is just a jumbled up trader based on what I can see he sold for, so I consider it as an outlier in my opinion. Therefore I am making the price 9.5-11 buds.