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Green Confetti Geisha Boy (16-20 keys)
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Trade #1: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13171955
Sold for 1 bud and owner may have added a key or 2. (~20 keys)
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Trad #2: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13259653
Offer a bud if owner adds 2 keys. Owner accepted, but buyer already bought from person above.
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Trade #3: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13269367
Buyout of 17 keys. Already had one willing buyer at buyout price, but apparently trade owner ignored request and hid the post. Makes me question trade owner's desire to actually sell or know how to sell.
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Trade #4: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12109459
Buyout of 15 keys. Accepted the 13 keys (backpack.tf price). Another buyer came along and paid 14 keys. Not an experienced unusual trader in my mind since he accepted the first person that came along and offered backpack.tf price. Also multiple interested buyers and sold within a day.
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Trade #5: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11696728
Sold for an unknown amount. Of all the buyout prices listed, this is the only one he decided to take down e.e
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Conclusion:
One sale at ~20 keys, and an interested buyer at 17 keys. One sale at 14 keys, but seems like an outlier from an inexperienced trader following backpack.tf price.
>an inexperienced trader following backpack.tf price
Sounds about like 90% of Outpost.
I'm talking about when dealing with unusuals, but yes, I suppose that's also true when dealing in unusuals less than ~3 buds, as well.