The hell, it didn't save my comment :(

6 month old price. Lets do this.

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One owner has been looking for offers off and on over the past month. I've provided the trades in chronological order.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12281871 (was looking for 5 buds, more than 3 weeks ago)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12576954 (dropped to 4.6 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12846334 (dropped to 4.4 buds) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13054111 (dropped to 4.3 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13317215 (dropped to 4.2 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13412615 (dropped to 4 buds)

Also I think it's worth noting that it got an offer of a flaming lantern waxy wayfinder recently. bp.tf suggests 4.1 - 5.5 buds, price is 4 months old, still probably at least 4

(e.g. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13381807 and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13353935 the ballcap was probably sold for no more than 4 buds pure)

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Summary: Fluttermedic seems interested in selling it for pure, and has been looking for 4.6 or less in the past 3 weeks (so I don't think it's a "quicksell"). Based on this my ballpark estimate of the USD value would be $150 - $180, but the bp.tf mid-value will say $186.