4.5 keys = 4 keys + 3 ref

4.8 keys = 4 keys + 5 refined

Paint is not valued as anything in this suggestion.

Classifieds:

http://puu.sh/3WWH7.png - A quick sell @ 4 keys, two at 4.5.

Outpost:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13406305 - 4 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13281350 - 4.3 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13325044 - 4.5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13381055 - 4.5 (3 days)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13394921 - 4.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13410697 - 4.5 (not misleading....)

Unsold at 5 keys on outpost:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13381055 - painted pink, 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12479520 - painted, waiting month +

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13276211 - 6 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12382038 - 4.8 - 5 keys, waiting 1 month

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13412584 - "lowest prices on OP" nope

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11164552 - 2 months+

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13444560

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13378399 - 3 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13433344 - painted, 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13448135 - painted

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13218740 - 1 week

Conclusion: 5 keys is a good price for high tier paint (team, lime, pink, black, white), but even those haven't been sold. 4 keys is a semi-quicksale; they get sold within hours of being added on outpost.