Random suggestion. Basing it on one FL ketche that has changed owners.

My suggested price: 26 - 35 keys

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13470323 (current owner has a buyout of 44 keys/2 buds)

Recent history:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13226617 (offered 35 keys)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13220232 (had a buyout of 1.5 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13062012 (ketche + 3 - 5 keys of sweets? for a gifted Kill-a-watt Gridiron)

This is the hat: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1818077460

I found the history pretty useless, but I'm guessing it is at least 1.4 buds (feel free to disagree).

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Summary: The current owner apppears to have paid significantly more in pure than the current suggested price.