#raisethesacks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13545981 Checking backpack (http://backpack.tf/id/76561198059082549), it sold for 24 keys + ~3 keys in sweets. That puts it right around 1.2 buds. Judging by how fast it entered and exited his BP, this may even be a quicksell. Either way, it's proof of 1.2.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12879915 Sold for TF Logo Armored Authority + 1 key of items. Ends up around 1.3 buds after overpay.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13531689 Offer of a stormy storm company man, 1.7 buds rounded down, not sure if outlier or not.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12001742 Sold for Blizzardy Private Eye, ~1.4 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13134313 Sold for a Blizzardy Private Eye, ~1-.4 buds. Wait, what? As it turns out, it's the same private eye that was offered before, just in the hands of a different guy. What a coincidence.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13087927 Turns down offer of 1 bud 8 keys (~1.3), also turns down Nuts and Bolts bonk boy (~1.5 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13371750 Same offer of Nuts and Bolts bonk boy as well as 30 keys (~1.3)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13176052 Sold for a Flaming Lantern Sack. This is basically a direct upgrade of 2 keys or so, but if you really want to apply overpay, it's about 1.2.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8122428 Sold for ~1.3 buds.

It seems 1.2 is the lowest range that seems to happen, 1.3 is pretty common, and 1.4 is very possible. I put 1.5 because of the NaB Bonk boy offers in that range, and because of the outlier, I don't want to horribly skew the price, but higher does happen.