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Miami Nights Bonnet - 1.4-1.5 buds
http://screencast.com/t/l1BoOtwi7ag - refer to screenshot for basis of sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13511784 - original owner
SOLD For: Lvl 1 Max Head (2 buds); owner added BMOC, Team Captain, and Festive Medi = ~1.4 buds final sale
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13516894 - 2nd owner
SOLD For: Lvl 9 Max Head (2.2); owner added BMOC, 8 ref, and TS Railspikes = ~1.5 buds total sale (essentially the same except different lvl Max Head)
Credit to Moustachio for providing the proof!
Pretty solid proof, awesome that moustachio made it that easy. Upvote.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13518270
seems to have sold for max+4 keys
proof looks good why hasn't this gone through yet?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13398908 - bubbling bomber (2.2-2.5) was sold for this hat.
The two sales you've shown are the first two, and two more sales have happened since. Combined with Christley's comment of the sale for a max head, it leaves us with two sales at less than 2 buds, and two sales at over 2 buds. I think a bigger range may be needed.