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There are 3 of these in existence, 2 are on outpost. One has not sold in over a month.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13291587
Sold with S. PDA for Smoking Brainiac(~2.6)
Also found this in the last suggestion to help: http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/3306/b68c.jpg
The Bucket was offered on the brainiac, so taking the high end due to "reverse unusual overpay" - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12413563
2.6 - 0.2 = 2.4 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13311205
Sold for Blizz Modest(~3.4)
This modest: http://backpack.tf/item/1843626295
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13186845
Sold with Killawatt Ol Geezer(not priced) for Sulphurous Drill Hat(~6.9 mid price)
Proof: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044217878?time=1375167600 -> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044217878?time=1375254000
This is probably an outlier as I don't see the ol geezer being more than ~2 at maximum even after overpay.
These are the only sales in the past month.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13546158 - B/O 4 buds
Smoking braniac is ~2.4 buds. The bucket offered first -> (pda + bucket)*0.9=2.4
pda=4.5 keys= 0.2 buds -> (0.2 + x)*0.9=2.4. x~2.5. Bottom price must be 2.5.
I think taking the low end of the PDA is sufficient for item overpay. And I took the brainiac as 2.6, not 2.4, to account for reverse unusual overpay (theoretical overpay connected with the bucket)
So much problems C: Alrighty
Everyone does things differently, but I am of the opinion that when items are traded, they should be valued at low end, not 0.9*middle. Low end of the PDA is supposed to sell quickly for pure. I think it's fair to take a larger overpay if the trade involves many items since it takes longer to convert a lot of items for pure. No hard an fast rule on any of this. It's really what seems reasonable and captures the essence of "overpay."