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[Proof below]
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13708379
-Sold for a stormy frenchman's beret (1.1 bud) + 3 ref + TS texas pant (1 key) + v. foot ball helm (4 ref) + festive scatter(2 keys) + all father(1.6 keys) + team captain(1 key) + s. nade (3 keys) + double cross com (3 keys) + genuine area 451 (2 ref)
~1.7buds
http://imgur.com/jlsCW3K
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13490264
-Sold for a g. white painted shaman (3ref) + big steel jaws(1.33ref) + honcho's head gear (1.33 ref) + wrapped treasure hat (8 keys) + bud
~1.4 buds
http://imgur.com/TSMS1t1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13573422 (b/o 1.5 buds)
CURRENT SELLER (same guy)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13726984 (relist #1)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13726207 (relist #2)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13698564 (relist #3)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13574387 (relist #4)
All with no notable offers
Accounting for over pay from just taking the lower ends of items/unusuals...etc
2 sales and a b/o right between the sales. Seems reasonable for me :)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13737459 - sold for cash?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13552101 - sold in a multihat deal
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13534630 - sharked?
And those are all the sales on the 2 hats in existence. Your proof is comprehensive. Might have preferred a little more overpay factored into all those items, but this is close enough.