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According to polar bear the latest sale is an outlier as it's quite high and the tyro is duped anyway. So it's off thy range.
Over'áy is applied.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12880874
Sold for an Steaming Executioner (~3.7 buds) and an SF Ubersaw.
http://backpack.tf/id/76561197964635535?time=1375167600 and http://backpack.tf/id/76561197964635535?time=1375254000
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13276219
~3.9 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11717596
Sold for a Disco Beat Down Fruit Shoot (~4.9 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13247322
Sold for a Flaming Lantern Vintage Tyrolean (~5.4 buds)
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198071252054?time=1376636400 and http://backpack.tf/id/76561198071252054?time=1376722800
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8123902
Why the range isn't 3.9-5.2? Not trying to say the suggestion isn't good just trying to know because I'm pretty new to unusuals suggestions.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13297449 - appears to have sold for maimi nights full-metal drill hat (4.5-4.8): http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1854673713,30026,5
The lantern tyro is duped, so it could have affected the price, so we'll ignore it. With three sales in this range, I think the price is good.