Yep, its still dropping.

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Selling/Sold @ 3.33 - 3.66 Refined & below.

Selling:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13776463 - 3 Refined

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13754711 - 3.33 Refined

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13724370 - 3.33 Refined

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13496745 - 3.33 Refined

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13085118 - 3.33 Refined

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13726686 - 3.66 Refined

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13631061 - 3.66 Refined

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13771569 - 3.66 Refined

Sold:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12726383 - 3 Refined.

http://bazaar.tf/trade/367027 ------------------ Traded the Medal + 1 Reclaimed for 4 Refined, so the seller valued the Medal @ 3.66 Refined.

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Unsold @ 3.77 - 4 Refined.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13455232 - 3.77 Refined, 1 Week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13730985 - 4 Refined, 2 Days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13670041 - 4 Refined, 4 Days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13402735 - 4 Refined, 1 Week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13755467 - 4 Refined, 1 Day (still young)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13550388 - 4 Refined, 1 Week.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13588942 - 4 Refined, 1 Week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13603072 - 1:1 for an item worth in the 4 Refined Range. 6 Days.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13426630 - 4 Refined, 1 Week.

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http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52028b09ba2536286d000002

Only one seller in the classifieds and its selling for 3.33 Refined.

http://i.imgur.com/mhhgEhJ.jpg

As you can see, 3.77 - 4 Refined is pretty much impossible to sell for now, people are starting to sell this for less.