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Borrowing a little proof from the last suggestion here.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13013638
Sold for 2 buds pure
http://i.imgur.com/T6AYwBm.png
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13086530
Looks like he sold for around 2 buds after all and then unboxed at least 43 keys: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198051896774?time=1374994800
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13133037
Sold with Power Surge Swagmans for Disco Beat Down Noble, so much unpriced stuff
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13399563
Sold with Phosphorus Pom Pom for Sulph Flamenco(~12.5) - not sure price on the Phos but this is probably a major outlier
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12412616
Sold for Sulph Rack(~4)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12382377
Sold for Sulph Strontium Stove(~3.3)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11589076
Sold with 1 bud for Phosphorus V. Merry(no price)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11499493
Sold for S. Kritz(~33 keys) + G Fetti Slug(~2) + TS Bills(~7 keys) = ~3.8 buds
Both of those 2 bud sales seem like quicksell prices to me, since there were many sales for higher.
imo, sales >2 months old on new hats / effects are outdated and should be avoided, especially if they are used to significantly raise or lower the price on the hat.
Sulph Rack price is 2 months old, and the s kritz deal was made >2 months ago. Both setting high end which seems high in the context of this: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13831023
Having said that, I looked at the racks on the market and 4 seems somewhat reasonable and that sale was made only 1 month ago.
Eh... I'll have another mod look at this one too.
That one is young....but maybe 3.3 - 3.5 might be better then if this fails?
Yeah. But another mod might feel this is close enough
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13831023
That 3.5 BO trade is really new, so I won't quite say it's the upper limit. However, why is the high range 4.3 buds when the highest sale is ~4?
EDIT: Oh, it's because the price of ref changed. Now the suggestion is off...