Suggestion: Bill's Hat at 6–6.3 keys

This makes sense when you think about their overall value in refined. Back when keys were 4-4.33 ref, Bill's were about 8 keys. 4X8=32. Now that keys are about 6 ref on the high end, they'll probably settle at 5. 6X5=30.

When keys hit 6.33 on the high end in a month (#SAVETEHKEYZZZ) Then a Bill's hat at 5 keys will be 32. So I'd say 4.5-5 keys will be a reasonable settling point for Bill's in about 3 weeks.

Bills were always 8 keys. Even when keys were 2.55

True, but even so, that doesn't have to do with my prediction. I think the trading community has that number around 32 refined somewhat set in their heads, and I'm just guessing that's where the equal balance will meet.

No they weren't.

Bill's were 5 keys back in 2011 when keys were 2.33.

Bill's then jumped to 6-7 keys when Earbuds increased due to the third misc slot being added. Because back then people regarded Bill's as half price of Buds, obviously that belief is no longer here. But I remember those days, I hoarded 5 Bill's Hats before it happened (Not for profit, I'm just a L4D2 fan).

don't base inflation/deflation on the price change of keys and refined

Not everyone trades for PayPal/RWT.

Inflation and deflation is based on the changes of currency value, currency in tf2 it is keys and refined.

edit -- in usd

When the hype of the B.M.O.C. dies, maybe they will swap prices..

Bill's should now be called "limbo hat"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSPuVFWiyhY

kinda unnecessary putting up all the quicksell prices below your range here, don't know why they're there, they're sort of disproving what you're trying to say

They are just there to show that bills are dropping. I don't see a problem with putting it there anyway.

you know what the say! when vintages drop everything follows.

upboat

you are not away from a 5key bill but it is just quicksells for now.

i like the new range.

good work

Sadly, Upvote

First time ever helping with Bill's suggestions, but here you go.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13902855

Sold both within 15 minutes of posting. (6 keys + 1 ref)

poor bills hat... :c glad I don't have one.

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9736181

Upvoted good

I think you need to wait a little longer since the current price is relatively new.

As of now I am going to be neutral.

I want you to look at how recently all of the last suggestions have passed. The biggest gap is 5 days. Nothing wrong here.

I don't know, was saying that because I have seen people suggest prices like this with the same difference and they didn't get it passed since they suggested it too early. I am also trying to say to let the current price "rest" a little while so he will have a better chance. Just saying I can change my mind.

If the proof warrants a change, and in my opinion it does, theres no need to stay neutral because of how old the last price is. With all the last suggestions being literally just a few days apart, I don't see why it should really impact this one.

I was just saying I am going to upvote, but I just thought it was too early from past experience/ seeing people.

I assume you haven't been following the B.M.O.C. train then.

It is true that it is still falling. You should add successful buyers as well. Upvote.

Upvoted with a heavy heart :(

sad but true these beauts are going down upvote bye bills

Upvote, add within minutes buying at 6

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13870917

Hehe. I never bumped mine last night.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13863081 - sold after 1 bump (9 hours cause it was overnight).

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13861279 - sold in 5 min (14 views and sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13858680 - sold in 2 min (10 views and sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13840935 - sold in 30 min (14 views and sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13803113 - sold in 2 min (7 views and sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13784518 - sold in 1 h (14 views and sold)

These views will obviously change when people click em

And for several of these I got 3 adds at once. My opinion is that 6 keys is a quicksell. It has been for me. And I've kept trading in them to see if that will change. But I won't discount this suggestion since people on other suggestions for this said it takes them hours to sell at 6. I don't know why. It is rare for me to have to bump once.

Yeah, I had some problems selling for 6 last night, but I woke up this morning with 5 friend requests all for my 6 key Bill's. I don't think 6 should necessarily be added in yet.

the 12 hour of outpost brake down made seller nervous so they drop there price

irony they didnt knew that the site was down for maintenance and the thought oh my god none is going to buy my bills i have to get rid of them

But still since there are so many sold at 6 keys we should update their price.

More and more 6 keys sellers are appearing in the market. I'm not arguing with the fact that they get sold quickly, that is true. But then again, it is easy to find sellers at 6 keys for this, so shouldn't it be included in the range as well?

Yeah, I just don't know. This is purely my personal opinion and not reflective of how the other mods feel, but I have looked very carefully at bill's for a long time - http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2107-bills/?hl=bill%26%2339%3Bs

Back when bill's were firmly established at 8 keys, they would take 12-36 hours to sell. Now we are using 6 keys sales that happen in less than 30 min to set a price even though there are several sellers for that? I don't like this because I feel that pricing based on this just enhances the calamitous drop we are seeing on these. Establishing firm rules about what is a quicksell and what is not, I think, is important before we continue making and accepting suggestions on these every other day.

I'm not really sure if the issue is about quickselling now due to the fact that its definitely easy to get these at 6 keys even if they were sold within hours after posting.

additional proof after suggestion was posted:

5 keys 3 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13881212

6 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13885164

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13884876

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13882899

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13882264

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13875878

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13875142 (have 2)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13876237 (greed, sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13874370 (ts, sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13874084 (pink, sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13876250 (sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13880299 (sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13881388 (grey)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13881556 (pink, sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13881519 (ts, sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13883524 (sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13883911 (sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13882960 (orange, sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13883895 (after eight, sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13883236 (ts, sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13885227 (ts, sold)

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9734504 (ts)

6 keys 1 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13891065

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13878402 (+ .66 ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13887573 (sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13883353 (orange, sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13881157 (BaF, sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13875107

6 keys 2 ref:

http://bazaar.tf/trade/380211 (team spirit)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13890092 (purple)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13887044 (purple)

Though I agree that they were sold off rather quickly, but the high volume of trades involving bills at 6 keys should be sufficient to warrant a price change?

If you take a look at your sales at 6+1 and 6+2, most of them sold lightning quick as well.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13887573 - are you saying that this should be the mid-high end of the new range on bills?

Now like I said earlier, its not about the time factor of how fast they were sold. Its about the volume of trades at 6 keys that prompt me to make this suggestion.

It is extremely easy to get bill's for 6 keys, no shortage of sellers at that price. This is my 3rd day searching in outpost and other trading sites, and 6 keys is very common. No matter how fast they were sold in each trade, if its possible to get it for 6 keys easily, I don't see why the community shouldn't be informed about it.

6 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13918294

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13917724

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13917611

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13916353 (after eight)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13915188 (purple)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13914331

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13913916 (black)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13913522

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13911854

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13911245

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13909867

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13909723

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13909720 (ts)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13907175

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13907161

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13906941 (gold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13906578 (gold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13906439 (ts)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13906208 (pink)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13905263

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13904588

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13903579

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13903347 (orange)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13902631 (ts)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13901055 (tincture)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13900721 (white)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13899802

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13899357

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9736181 (ts)

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9736868

http://bazaar.tf/trade/381896 (orange)

http://bazaar.tf/trade/382731 (greed)

5 keys 5 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13904956

5 keys 4 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13910128

5 keys:

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9736433

4 keys:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13911991

Also, in classifieds today: http://www.gophoto.it/view.php?i=http://i.imgur.com/bSNdqYf.png#.UhsgPT_JQrc

Took me a day to sell my unpainted for 6 keys, seems like quite a few painted ones for 6 keys are surfacing

I just looked on the classfields and it definitely looks like this needs a slight drop, upvote.

Woah, maybe I could actually afford a bills soon!

Seems good to me. Upvote.

How it is forcing the market to crash? You do realise these essentially doubled in both ref and usd price from last year right?

Dont go "it's always been 8 keys" because of this thought notion that it's "been" that way is why eventually the bubble popped and it's finally balancing out it's price :P

I sold mine for 6 keys in a few seconds, so i think that 5 keys is a quicksell because six is selling very fast

I have to agree on that, my unpainted sold instantly but i bought one for 5 keys, so neutral.

I found that people are still willing to overpay in items for it, but no one is willing to pay pure for it .-.

It makes me very sad to have to upvote this..

IT should be 7 needs to stay a milestone for new user's

We are not to blamed that you have trouble selling your Bills

#BalanceTheBills

This is a thing that happened. Never thought I'd see the day.

http://imgur.com/7dzSU7B

As sad as it is to see how the mighty have fallen, you've earned an upvote based on your proof.

well, keys are fucked anyways, bye bills!

#upvote

OH bills.. Why did we go so wrong..?

where did we go so wrong

NO! just focus on overrated earbuds instead!

Bah. The classic case of availability vs quicksell.

At least some of the bills at 6 keys are approaching a more reasonable time frame as I have previously described here - http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2107-bills/?hl=bill%26%2339%3Bs

8-36 hours on bill's was a normal selling time before and some at 6 keys are finally making it there as you have shown in your last set of links and from some comments.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13905263

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13904588

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13911245

Whereas classifieds had no more than a few yesterday, there are now enough to justify having that in the range. I still maintain the 6-6.3 wasn't accurate yesterday or the day before. But it seems like it has finally made it there.