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Overpay calculated where required
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12401371- "Quickselling" for 8 buds for 1 month. 2 offers of Vintage Medals (7.2 buds) and nothing else.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10571184 - Sold for Ghosts Jefe + "good" sweets (6.7 + ~0.1 = 6.8 buds)
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198025125792?time=1370070000 Only new items aside from Jefe are a bud and 2 keys. But since he didn't have a bud in his bp the day before, it likely wasn't his http://backpack.tf/id/76561198052270344?time=1369983600 . Although it doesn't show on eggzbacon's key's history, on 2 of the other user's key's histories it show them being traded to eggzbacon. Therefore sweets = 2 keys. Apologies if that was hard to comprehend.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10566464 - Seemed willing to take 6 buds but didn't. perhaps someone bet him/her to it or offered slightly more
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6386504 - Sold for Searing Plasma Bonk + 6 buds 5 months ago (10.5 buds)
Outlier due to time since trade and clear price difference to recent offers.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8710178 - Sold for P. Energy El Jefe + P. Energy Master's yellow belt 5 months ago (6.8 + 3.6 = 10.4 buds)
Once again, outlier due to time since trade and clear price difference to recent offers.
Demand for this hat has dropped drastically in the last 6 months. Above are all the trades (as far as I'm aware) in the last 6 months. I feel like this alteration is a bit harsh, but it represents what people are willing to pay so I guess it's fair.