Suggestion: Strange Construction PDA at 4–4.5 keys

REMEMBER: I am not saying that 4.5 is impossible, I am just saying that 4 keys is possible. So that said, as 4 keys is possible, and I do not have enough proof to remove 4.5, said range is 4-4.5. I apologize for any repeated links, false proof etc. Please feel free to leave CONSTRUCTIVE criticism in the comments below. Thank you for your time

-twentyone_

HAPPY TRADING

nice, upboated!

I love you too

me three <3

Almost of all of your 4.5 keys links have sold theirs.

That's some good proof, however some links at 4 keys sold pretty quickly.

I feel that I was finding plenty of them under 4.5 and that I had enough to put it at a flat 4. It's hard to argue that under 4.5 is impossible, but I felt I had enough to make a flat 4-4.5

Nu miz bp velue lowez

Kidding, I do like the proof, and from personal experience it's HARD to sell at 4.5 keys

Upvoted~

I have been offered SEVERAL at 4 keys because I am interested in owning one of my own. I can put that in proof if that is necessary? [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13871536[/url] first comment I was offered 4. Now I am not lowering the price to get one of my own, I just found that I was offered a lot for 4. Most were adds and offers. I wish I had screenshots. But thats that

Where's all you're 4 key sellers to show it takes a lot of time to sell for 4 keys?

It doesn't necessarily need to take a LONG time, but there are plenty of sellers under 4.5. It is hard to argue that under 4.5 isn't possible, but I believed that I found enough 4 sellers to put it in there. Which others seem to agree with.

Almost all the 4.5 keys sellers have closed or traded away. The crate 50 has been retired, and people are holding onto their stranges now.

I would have thought that I had bad timing of posting this as it was mere hours before the update where they removed the crate. I would have thought people would use it as an excuse to raise prices, but the people selling low are still outweighing them.

Posts I have seen asking for 4.5-5 are out dated and countered with offers or 4 keys. PDAs are not selling for higher then 4 keys 1 ref-3ref, time to lower price

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13863731

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10155976

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13140740

Thank you for the extra proof man! Appreciate it

First link selling at 5 keys, outside the range.

Second link selling for 14 keys, way outside the range.

Third link selling 6 keys, also outside the range.

So your only counterproof is a few unsolds well above this range and a bunch of lowball offers. Sorry, but that means absolutely nothing with regard to this suggestion.

Oh whoops. I think I misunderstood. I admit I did not follow the links. I thought they were between 4 keys 1 ref and 3. Yes i agree they are unrelated. I apologize

So even though the crate just retired, traders aren't hoarding these?

Surprising if this is true

I thought the same

They aren't mass selling them either. Still only 5 pages on outpost for this item.

There isn't a single one for under 4.5 on outpost either. I saw only 1 or 2 selling at 4.5 keys. A few were right above that, but the majority are looking for 5 keys now. Since there isn't really any proof of selling at 4 anymore, have to downvote.

Counter to that

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13963572[/url] sold for 4 keys

[url]http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9741728[/url] sold for 4 keys

[url]http://bazaar.tf/trade/386409[/url] sold for 4 keys

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13957491[/url] sold for 4 keys

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13959135[/url] sold for 4 keys

I hope that is enough to prove what you said wrong....

Almost all of those look to have sold immediately. Notice in the first link it sold within 2 hours. The last 2 links look to have sold instantly. What that shows is that 4 is probably a quicksale, and is actually proof against 4 being in the range.

Yes, they do sell on the quick side, but there are TONS at 4 keys, and just because there is a demand, doesn't mean that it should go down. There are plenty, and lots under 4.5. I felt i had enough proof to lower down to a flat 4-4.5, being there were so many trades under 4.5

Also, if you look through my links in my initial post, there are a few that are selling for 4 and STILL haven't sold. If you look on the history, they still own it. Another reason that 4 works in the range

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13804761 check his bp, he has 4 new keys and the PDA is gone

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13826905 has no PDA anymore in his BP

Ok, the first one went up a week ago, and just NOW got 4 "new" keys. meaning it took a week to sell.... The second was selling for 4.3 not 4.5. I have plenty between 4 and 4.5 to counter that already IN my suggestion

Most or all(I didn't tally) happened before this update that retired the crate. Go ask the same sellers that sold for 4 keys if they would still do it now, I'm willing to bet most or almost all of them would say they'd hold onto their stranges or sell for a bit higher. Probably the reason all of the 4's and <4.5's got eaten up is just because of this update. It may have taken a week to sell for 4 before yesterday, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13574451[/url] buying for 4 keys, 3 WRITTEN ADDS to sell to him

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13059372[/url] buying for roughly 3.75 keys, 3 written adds again

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13924446[/url] buying for 3 keys 4 ref, has one in his bp

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13787827[/url] buying pdas, offered 4 keys

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13865083[/url] bought 4 pdas @ 3 keys

I have been stockpiling and stockpiling proof. You have used 2 links so far in our conversation. One of them was proven irrelevant. Besides that you have just used your logic. I am sorry good sir if I am sounding harsh, but I will have to disagree with you

I don't see any indication that any of those were bought for 4 or <4 since last night. They are all a few days ago or more, save for one in the first link, in which the guy offered to sell for 4 then hid his own post. I didn't use any links btw, the two I posted were from your original proof, and I was explaining that they were sold.

All I'm saying is I don't believe now is the right time for a suggestion on any of these crate 50 stranges after such a major change to their availability. More than likely any suggestion that passes now based on old data will be changed soon after one way or another.

Still not much proof, just your logic. One proof and trying to verbally prove me wrong. Like a suggestion with no proof

There's nothing wrong with logic, it has its place on backpack.tf. For example, when a new strange comes out, if a suggestion is made too early, even if there is substantial proof, it can be rejected based on the logic that it is too early to establish the market for it. We use logic to determine which sales are outliers in unusual suggestions. I used logic to determine by looking at the trades that those under 4.5 which have previously gone unsold are now all sold as this update launches, and almost nobody is posting new trades below 4.5.

My overall opinion on this is that the current proof is not applicable because it was before a major change in the item, which could affect the price drastically. You cite me lacking proof, while my point is that there is little to no current proof after last night to indicate where the market is going with this item. Better to just leave the price as-is til we know what is going to happen rather than push a suggestion that is clearly not right imo.

I'm not trying to be a dick, I have no stake in this as I do not even own a strange PDA. But Backpack's prices should reflect the current market and to me you are proving the market of yesterday and before. I'd like for more people to take backpack.tf seriously and I think some level of self moderation should be used at times so that people looking in see that we are thinking critically and setting the right prices, not just what we think it is.

I think I've said all I can with regard to this suggestion, there isn't anything else I can add to this really. So I'll just let the mods make their decision later.

People did not realise it was removed from drop yet it seems. Considering the trades are older then the update. These prices are outdated.

Or maybe... just maybe, traders finally realized that bump in prices just like right after #40 stopped doesn't make any sense.

Or maybe crate 40 was common as fuck, because it dropped for a year, where this crate dropped less than half of that time frame.

I agree with doctor doom, the trades older than ~16 hours by now don't factor in the fact that the crate was retired. People couldn't possibly have factored that into their sales because it hadn't happened yet. I believe you'd need current traders selling at 4-4.5 as of last night for this to still be valid, otherwise you are basing a new price on an old market.

PEOPLE, PLEASE REMEMBER. I am not saying 4.5 isn't possible, I am saying 4 is. I understand that people are looking for more now that 50 stopped dropping, but that doesn't mean that they are selling. Please take a look through my eyes

After crate 50 stopped on the drop list, people have a new see on these, this proof is outdated sorry :/

i posted this like a couple hours before the patch. just unlucky timing

probably true before but now most of the unsolds have sold

from your proof :

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13951380 sold in minutes

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13957491 sold in minutes

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13916570 sold in minutes

low end is based on quicksells

No.

Downvote.

With chemistry sets sometimes requiring the strange PDA, I think this is not the best time to make this suggestion, the price is going to move in one direction or the other by more than a half-key.

Downvoting because some new craft items require this to build, and that will make it less available, and likely more expensive as there aren't a lot of them around as it is.

I posted this mere hours before the update and I am getting mass hate for it now. I had no idea this would happen and people are blaming me.

Close it then or admit you have insider trading knowledge with valve :p

I see that :\

I think if you get a moderator to close your suggestion, you won't lose the points..

You could just let it run.. there's a lot of votes already and the worst you get is -5 or something for failed suggestions

I had like 80% ish and i have like over a thousand votes. I have like 700 ish upvotes. Also, I don't really mind about points so I will let it run

Downvote, one sold for 4.5 :l

"REMEMBER: I am not saying that 4.5 is impossible, I am just saying that 4 keys is possible. So that said, as 4 keys is possible, and I do not have enough proof to remove 4.5, said range is 4-4.5." Please read the entire proof before you make some dumbass remark. Thank you and good day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13709098 - lots of 4.5 offers, offered 5 keys today

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13989079 - same guy as above added for 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14010080 - added within an hour for 4.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13747792 - offered 4.8 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14003683 - added for 5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13880847 - added for 4.5 keys

And as Michael mentioned, most of your unsolds are sold now. 4 keys is rare and even 4.5 keys is starting to sell fast. And agree with the comments that low end is based on both quicksells and quickbuyers. I suspect that at the time your suggestion was made your range might have been reasonable. But it seems that even 5 keys is getting offered now.