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Proof below. Overpay calculated
Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13525970 - Smoking Beak = 2.7 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12946626 - Holiday Headcase = 2.5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13964385 ---> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13772452 - Cauldron Private Eye = 2.8 buds
Conclusion
There seems to be a sale for an Aces High Tyrant's + Unknown sweets, and judging from the last failed suggestion it was around 4 buds, which seems to be an outlier according to these other sales. So yeah.
Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3
That really isn't a lot of proof. If anything, you should wait a bit.
Also, you're not taking the average prices of the unusuals, you're taking the low side of the price. The CB Private Eye is worth 2.8 - 3.5 buds. The Smoking Beak is worth 2.8 - 3.3 buds. The Holiday Headcase is worth 2.5 - 2.8 buds. It's gonna have to be a downvote from me.