PLEASE READ BEFORE VOTING!

Disclaimer: I realize I own one, however, my agenda is simply to get a more accurate price associated with this hat and for my backpack to depict its true value. The last suggestion on this hat had severely flawed logic that I hope to correct in my own suggestion. My aim is to take a more quantified approach in order to calculate an accurate price; my main proof is based on actual hat sales all my math and calculations are 100% transparent.

With only 10 of these hats in existence, what truly determines this hat’s price is sales (not B/Os or sales that never occurred). After looking over recent sales over the past couple days, I’ve come to a couple of conclusions:

-Near the end of August, up to FOUR of these hats were in the market.

-Of these four, THREE moved hands: my own hat, the hat owned by this individual ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14021636 ) and here ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12490252 )

From what I’ve gathered (see Proof), the old range (4.5-4.8) was fine. Just because a price is a couple months old doesn’t mean it needs to be changed; if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. In fact, as you will soon see, recent sales suggest that a minor PRICE INCREASE from the old range was needed. So, without further ado, onto the meat.

--------

PRIMARY PROOF:

NOTE: Unusual Overpay calculated as x0.90 multiplied by the mean value of the unusual offer. Paypal key prices set at $1.70-$1.75 (bulk value - competitive price). Buds taken at 21.5 keys. Also, the prices of unusual are taken from their bp.tf value AT THE TIME OF THE TRADE. For example, in the trade were the Berliner’s was offered for another unusual, it’s value will be set at 4.65 (average of 4.5 and 4.8).

Trade: Sunbeam’s Berliner for a O. Fire Brown Bomber (3.15) + S. Plasma Fukaamigasa (2.1)

Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13250100

Calculated Value: (3.15 + 2.1) = 5.25; 5.25 * 0.90[Unusual Overpay] = 4.75 Buds

Explanation: This is my own trade. At the time of the last suggestion, this was also the most recent trade of the hat but was excluded from the proof; why suggestion left out the most recent sale is beyond me (probably ‘cause it contradicted his evidence). Anyways, the current range does not come anywhere near this value.

Trade: Scorching Flames Stout Shako (4.8-5.4) for a Sunbeams Berliner (4.65) + 11 Keys (~0.52)

Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13895500 No offer is listed here so I went out of my way to contact the owner to confirm the trade. He was very compliant and sent me a picture of the trade history http://imgur.com/e0fgVBO

Calculated Value: (SEE EXPLANATION FIRST) (4.65 * 0.90{Unusual Overpay]) = ~4.2; 4.2 + 0.5 = 4.7 Buds

Explanation: This sale was also used as proof, albeit incorrectly, in the last suggestion which tried to calculate value of the berliner’s based on the value of the Stout Shako. WRONG. In order to calculate the Berliner’s value in a trade where the Berliner’s is the offered item, use the mean value of the actual Berliner, not the item being offered for. In this case, I applied the x0.90 unusual overpay before adding the value of the keys. WHY? Keys are considered pure [currency], why would you apply the overpay multiplier to something that isn’t an unusual. Either way, the calculated value would still fall at around 4.7 buds, a value that the current price range also doesn’t encompass.

Trade: Sunbeam’s Berliner for $137 USD Paypal + 23 Keys

Link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12490252

Calculated Value:

Competitive Price:$137 / $1.75 (competitive key price) = ~78.3 Keys; 78.3 keys + 23 keys = 101.3 keys; (101.3/21.5) = 4.72 buds

Upper Range (keys at $1.70) = 4.82 buds

Mean Price: 4.77 buds

Explanation: As noted earlier, Paypal key prices are set to $1.75 which is the competitive price in real-world currency (RWC) across trading sites (think of it as the “6 Refined” price of RWC). That being said, undercutting the price is VERY COMMON with several sellers selling keys in bulk for $1.70 or lower. If I had calculated the price using $1.70 as the standard, the offer’s value would have bumped up to roughly 4.82 buds. For the sake of later calculation, I’ve taken the mean value (4.77 buds) to be the estimated value of the hat. Yet again, the value falls over and outside of the current values range.

--------

SECONDARY PROOF:

These should be taken with a grain of salt. Actual sales and trades are what truly set an item’s range, not B/Os, trades that never occurred or denied C/O’s. That being said, the suggestion wouldn’t be complete without mentioning these. Note that these are the only two Sunbeam Berliner’s currently out on the market.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14021636 : B/O of 5+ buds; denied the $137 + 23 key offer

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6933238 : no set B/O but denied a Stormy 13th Hour VRH offer (4.7 – 5.5) as well as the $137 + 23-key offer

--------

My primary proof consists of the three MOST RECENT trades concerning a Sunbeam’s Berliners.As previous noted, with only 10 of these unusuals in existence and only 2 currently on the market, I firmly believe that the three most recent trades from the last week or so give us an accurate picture of what the price should be. From the calculated values listed above, the sum mean value should give us an accurate MEAN value of the Sunbeam’s Berliner: (4.77 + 4.7 + 4.75)/3 = ~4.75 buds. The last suggestion came up with completely arbitrary min/max values, leaded to a 0.5 bud range of the Berliner’s value; thus, in order to keep consistent with the 0.3 bud range of the previous 4.5-4.8 price (which I believed accurate for its time), I’ve set the suggested price to 4.6-4.9 buds (this range can be lowered 4.7-4.8 buds as well without sacrificing accuracy IMO).

Feel free to comment if you have any questions concerning my calculations. Have a great day!

Edit 1: Better readability.