Proof below. Overpay calculated

Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13701272 - Stormy Trilby + Smoking Bonnet = 2.2 buds

Side note: Taking mid-price since the Beanie was offered

http://puu.sh/3XzL8.png The outback (4.33) + Bonk Boy (1.66) + Slope Scopers (1.33) + Bearded Bombardeer (5.88) + Blueprints (1.33) + Mutton Mann (2) + Uncraft RJ (0.5) + Dead LB (1.66) + Batters Helmet (1.66) + Prussian Pickeljalm (1.66) + Feodora (2.66) + BBB (2.66) + Haunted Exorcizor (1.66) + S. SMG (2) + duel 3 using (0.33) + duel 2 using (0.22) + Pyrobotics Pack (1.33) + 6 squad vouschers (16) +Saunted sir (7) + duel 5 using (0.66) + S. festive ambassador (35) +S. sapper (32) + Worst Nightmare (1.66) + 6 refined (6) + buds = 130.5 + 1 bud = 130/5.88 + 1 bud = 22.2 keys + 1 bud = 2 buds

Side note: Stolez from last suggestion :3

B/O's

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14284437 - 2.2 buds

Conclusion

1 sale and 1 B/O recommend a drop, though Im not sure if this is entirely correct :3 I'll see what an admin/mod/someone more experienced has to say about this ;)

Only 1 solid sale within 1 month I could find.

Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3