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#pricethesacks
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13723613 Sold for many crate 50 stranges.
See http://backpack.tf/id/76561198000754743?time=1377846000 then http://backpack.tf/id/76561198000754743?time=1377932400
All in all this adds up to ~62 keys, or ~2.9 buds.
It seems that he bought it for a Bubbling Copper's Hard Top and a Ghosts Ol' Geezer. See http://backpack.tf/id/76561198000754743?time=1376636400 then http://backpack.tf/id/76561198000754743?time=1376722800 , and the seller's bp after the trade ( http://backpack.tf/id/76561198062121620?time=1376722800 ) for confirmation. The two hats add up to ~1.9 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14182618 Sold for a Scorching Flames Nanobalaclava, ~2.5.
you didnt calculate overpay for the stranges. It brings them down to 2.6, which should probably be in the range.
Who calculates overpay for stranges? It's only for unusuals from what I've heard.
Overpay is supposed to be calculated for anything that isn't currency (unusuals, vintages, stranges etc) on high value items, but people tend to just apply it to unusuals. Anyway, it makes sense, it'd take just as long to resell the stranges as it would an unusual.
I think best way to calculate overpay on easy to sell items is to just use low end of bp.tf range - as opposed to the 0.9 * middle calculation.