Proof below. Overpay calculated

Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13679199 - 45 keys = 2.1 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13415317 = 2 buds (judging by the comments)

Notable Offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11229940 :

- Orb Fire Chapeau = 1.9 buds

- Vivid Fukaa = 2.3 buds (looks like an outdated price, was willing to take slightly over 2 buds here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13604320 )

- Blizz Company Man = 2.1 buds

- 2 buds + Unknown sweets

- 2 buds

Conclusion

Kinda rushed this. If Im missing anything, please inform me ^.^

Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3