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Now that I've sold my unusual, time to adjust it accordingly. 3 month price bump.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13187139 Smoking Birdcage, ~20 keys, went through.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11257924 17 keys + Festive Medigun, ~18.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12524431 Sold for 15 pure + 3.5 keys of sweets, ~18.5,
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12855438 18 key offer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12577961 https://i.imgur.com/btvFnTQ.png Sold mine for an Orbiting Fire Mirror + S. Bat, ~17-18 keys depending on how you factor overpay (mean x.9 gives 17, low end gives 18)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14338502 B/O 17
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198029579146?time=1378796400
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198029579146?time=1378882800
Bought at 16 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14178877 Sold for 17.5 key item, adds item worth 1.5, so ~16 keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13467744 Sold for TF Ketche, ~16
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198067408371?time=1376636400
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198067408371?time=1376809200
16 keys seems to be the lowest price that occurs, 20 the highest, 18 or so being the most common.
Proof taken from my old suggestion + MC22's. All prices are noninflated from before the ref change.
Hmm.. The Smoking Birdcage Sale looks like an outliner. I'd resuggest it as 16 - 18.
18? Then I'd be disregarding the two sales at 18.5!
Anyways, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11633054 Sold for a Bubbling Grimm Hatte, which is 20-28 keys. That price is garbage, should be updated to 19-26 based on the own guy's proof. Anyways, with a 19-26 range it's ~20 keys, even higher with 20-28. I don't think 20 is an outlier.
Well all right then.