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Due the ref price ihave to repeat myself :s According to ad's on tf2op people got offers starting from 150$ through holiday headcase Sunbeams Gatsby ending on the Harvest Moon one. I think setting the price up to 4 buds is not a bad idea. Proof below
Recent offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12315863
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13844242
Sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13249959 gifted one for holiday headcase
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12879361 same gifted for headcase and sweets
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14320652 sold for Miami Nights Stout Shako worth like 3.8-4.5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13802943 here I'll try to ask the seller if it was 3 or 4 buds but he's rarely online
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14448218 sold for green energy Ze Goggles + 1bud
I dont see unusals overpay
The ze goggles sale and miami nights shako sale are both ~3.8 buds, not quite 4 buds. High range might be slightly high