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Proof below (4 sales). Overpay is applied.
8 month-old price.
Prices used are of time of sale.
1st sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13692627 mc22 sold this for nnb cosa+8 keys=23 keys
2nd sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12647570 sold for 21 keys+3 ref=21.5 keys
3rd sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12989795 sold for of beret+2 keys=~25 keys, seems like outlier especially since he was only looking for 19 keys pure or 23 keys in unusuals
4th sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14442741 added 1 key to sell 1 bud=20 keys
Sales: 20, 21,5, 23, 25
The 25 keys sale seems like an outlier, so I'm not including it in the range. I've tried my best not to use the inflated unusual prices here.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13587213
Lots of offers of 18-20 in pure rejected. Selling for 25. Range seems good.