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A conservative bump
Proof:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14381602 - Look at the amount of adds for 1 key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14544649 - Has a willing buyer in 8 minutes for 1 key!
http://bazaar.tf/trade/436836 - Sold? it's not in his backpack, if it sold it's 1.166
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10476217 - Has an offer of Brotherhood of Arms (1 - 1.2 which means the offer is at least 1)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14508151 - Sold for 1.2 in less than a day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14291404 - Declined 1 key 1.33 ref (1.22)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14433790 - Sold at least 2 for 1.33 (I know he sold to: http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/114258 and to: http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/364288 if you don't believe me check histories)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6634184 - Declined an offer of 1.5 (by Jersshhh)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14534908 - Sold for 2? has none in his backpack and restocking (or at least trying, for now) at 1: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14543012
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14452642 - Sold for 2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14437216 - Sold at least 1 for 2 recently (check histories of the listed 8)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11173977 - Seems to have a sale, 3 weeks ago (kinda old but still) for 3 to: http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/292768 check histories) I know it happened ~3 weeks ago because of his comment on this trade (scroll down) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11274126
Not much proof to gather because there are less than 3 pages, and some (not many but some) are in sets/overpriced such as 3 or something and really a few even have strange part attached
At the moment of posting Classifieds had none below 1.5
All of these need some bumps, 40s are literally almost promos at this point in the market, you lose huge profit and ~20% chance of making .25 keys is the best case scenario... And this is clearly much better than the other suggestion. upbutt