Proof below (5 sales). Overpay is applied.

8 month-old price.

Prices used are of time of sale.

1st sale:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14329878 likely sold for 1 bud+16 keys=~1.8 buds

2nd sale:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14232579 sold for steaming modest=2.2 buds, outlier looking at current b/os

3rd sale:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14530816 quicksold for 31 keys=~1.5 buds

4th sale:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13301300 sold for nnb titanium tower=~2 buds

5th sale:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12833516 sold for searing guad+sf huntsman with hs parts+3 keys=~1.7 buds

Current trades:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14383582 B/O of 2.2 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14559070 selling for 2 buds, very new trade

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14327281 changed price from 3 to 2 buds, have no idea when, 1 week old

Sales: 1.5, 1.7, 1.8, 2, 2.2

Definitely excluding the 2.2 sale from the range looking at the prices of current trades. 1.5 buds was a quicksell, so also not included in the range.