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Must take a burning plunge down.
Sold for 14-15 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14168469
Sold for a bubbling outdoorsman + sweets (14-16 keys):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12706066
Would have done 15 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12527085
Would accept 15 keys + 8 ref: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13961410
That's about it, see ya.
with the 1st link we don't know what it sold for.
We also don't know the sweets added on the second link.
third and fourth links do justify high range, but low range isn't very sound.
See if you can get proof of a definite sell at 14, then it'll be fine.
In the comments of the first link someone offered to buy it for 16 keys, to which the owner said yes to.
Current owner said he won it in a raffle, so maybe the offerer of 16 keys bought it and raffled it?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14474045 - b/o 16, probably willing to do less since he added the person offering 14