Not too many trades without paint, fancy levels or sets. This is the information from every valid trade. From it I can confidently state that 4 ref is impossible and if there would be a sale form it, it would be an outlier.

Selling for 2 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14558810 <- http://imgur.com/vxqBRar

Offered 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13789231 "Can we do 3 ref for pyro beanie?"

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14511565 "i have v.benie for 3.33?" then later said "3 ref?"

Bought for 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14551668 Owns 1.

Selling for 3.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14460254

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13960284

http://bazaar.tf/trade/439882

Unsolds for 3.77 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14511011 (Painted gold too)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14554413

Every Young unsold for 4 ref

NOTE: View views as potential buyers.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14577890 11 hours, 23 views.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14538718 1 day, 33 views.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14552064 1 day, 17 views.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14517733 2 days, 9 views.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14512547 2 days, 78 views.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14505389 3 days, 18 views.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14484657 4 days, 71 views.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14451479 6 days, 20 views.

Old unsolds for 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14334553 1 week.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14376348 1 week.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14424163 1 week.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14241564 2 weeks.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13991093 3 weeks.

CLASSIFIEDS

http://imgur.com/1wPi9M8