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Proof below. Overpay calculated
Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13711944 - 3 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14080165 ---> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14473561 - Smoking Brainiac + Steaming Engie Cap = 3.2 buds
Side note: I see lots of offers flying around, but it seems to be the final sale. Idk ^.^
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11894209 - PE Hotrod + Hearts Rag + 10 keys = 5 buds (outlier?)
Conclusion
I think that last sale was an outlier, as well as it being 2 months old :/ Idk.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14465198 - Here seems to be a B/O-ish of 3.5 buds, so 5 seems to definately be an outier. Vote accordingly.
Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3
Some notes:
Link 2: He actually sold it for a gifted secret moon cap + 8 keys
Link 3: The PE Hotrod I traded was duped, but I readily admit to overpaying regardless.
I didn't see the Moon Cap anywhere, not in other trades or in his backpack, so I assumed some sort of negotiating went on or something. Maybe Im missing something. Idk.
http://i.imgur.com/p3aR16F.png
http://i.imgur.com/qx4Yxdd.png
There was some negotiation involved because he traded that secret cap to me almost immediately for a smoking brainiac plus some keys.
Well, Im not sure what to value this at, so I'll wait for an admin/mod's help ^.^
Thanks for the counter-proof, I guess.
So let me get this straight... you're friends with "Spitfire" and so you traded a smoking brainiac for his h.moon engy cap, then traded the h.moon engy cap for a gifted s.moon engy cap + 6 keys. The s.moon engy cap is now in your inventory, so are you keeping it or still brokering it?
Because if it is your hat now, then there are two trades that happened.
Keeping the s moon cap. There was actually three trades.
1. His trade was harvest moon cap for gifted s moon cap + 6 keys, but he gave the h moon cap to trade for him since he's barely around to make the trade himself.
2. Since I wanted the s moon cap, I offered him Smoking brainiac + 8 keys.
3. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14446599
Spitfire wanted a steaming cap, so I used the 6 keys I got from his h moon trade + 8 of my keys to buy a steaming engy cap for 14 keys in all, and traded both to him for the s moon cap.
Sorry if all that sounds confusing!
Ok. So if we say that gifted s.moon cap shaves a bud off its price, it would be about 3-3.2 buds
You then bought a steaming engy cap, and traded him both the smoking brainiac (2.5-3, old price) and steaming cap (14-18 keys) for the s.moon, which validates the assumption that the gifted s.moon should be around 3.2 buds.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14465198 - offered ghosts western wear (2.3-3, VERY old price) + 1 bud, which somewhat falls within suggested range.
I think this suggestion is OK