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Proof below (4 sales). Overpay is applied.
7 month-old price.
Prices used are of time of sale.
1st sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14412289 sold for 5 buds
2nd sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13729031 sold for CC painted hearts fedora+2 or 3 keys (backpack history)=~5.4 buds, accounting for the fact that he didn't really like the paint's value
3rd sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13963167 sold for pe fedora seen here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14225809 , making it 6.2 buds
4th sale:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13684631 bought scorching stovepipe=~5 buds
I'm not including 6.2 buds in the range, as this trade has even been having trouble at 5.6 buds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14218637 5.6 buds, untaken for 3 weeks, no notable offers close to that
Sales: 5, 5.2, 5.4, 6.2
Low end is from the 5 buds sale and high end from the hearts fedora sale.
6.2 is not an outlier for these sales. It should be considered when setting the range even though the 5.6 one is unsold. Sorry, but it's a downvote.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13635824 wants 6-7 buds, one 'collecting', probably won't happen
First of all, I did consider the 6.2 sale, but it is too far off from the rest of sales at 5+ buds, and is the only sale I have above 6 buds. If these 2 trades can't even sell theirs at 5.6 and 6-7 buds for 3 weeks and 1 month respectively, I'm afraid I can't include the 6.2 sale. I don't see it as an 'outlier' as you say, just a bit far off from the sales, hence why I am not including it.
Hope you understand.