Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 6–6.11 ref

Been trying to buy a key for 6 ref for the last couple of days with not even a single offer. It's kinda odd, because I bought a few keys at 6 ref just about a week ago. I guess the market is just really unstable. Staying neutral for now, waiting until others weigh in.

I did see a few outliers, i.e one at 5.88 ref. And a couple of 6 refs, you just have to look for them. But tbh, much harder to find than 6.11.

Sadly true. 6 is getting annoyingly hard to find. But again, it's odd. I bought 3 keys in a few minutes at 6 ref less than a week ago. Then I saw a massive increase in 6.11 sellers. It's going to be interesting to see where the market goes.

Well I don't see the point in raising the price here and the reason why this is, is that people will start off selling keys at 6.22 ref to make 2 scrap profit. Otherwise if it stays stable at 6 ref, people will still buy them at 6 ref and Selling them at 6.11 making it the perfect price (if you could say it that way). So there is no need in raising them.

Why are people buying them at 6 ref and not selling them you ask?

Well because They are unsure if the key price stays or not, so they keep them just like me, but then there are some greedy people seeing no keys sold at 6 ref and raising their price to 6.11 ref and as Keys are essential in trading. People will be willing to buy them at that price because no one sells them at 6 ref because they are unsure if the price gets raised because people buy them already at 6.11 It's a vicious circle.

And the only one who do make profit out of this raise are key holders. Now I'm not saying I support that kind of profit machines but it is clear to all of us that if the key price only raises for 1 scrap it raises for 2 scrap on the market and so forth

Side note: It is said that the reason why key prices raise is the inflation. Well it may be an important factor in this whole story but in the last few suggestions there was not 1 single word about this. Only people selling/buying them at higher prices for the reasons mentioned above.

So it's up to you to decide whether you want to stabilize the key prices or just get an extra voting point on bp.tf

That would be manipulation.

if you can buy keys for 6 ref consistently, with all those outpost buyers up there at 6 ref, you're one lucky trader

my vote is up...

Upvote for me.

I've been seeing them sold all over the place for 6.11 and I've been having trouble buying them for 6 ref the past few days.

had 0 luck buying keys were 6 ref for 3-4 days now. was waiting for the next repwhore to come in and update it. upvote

Me is no rep whore, I only wanted to accuratise the price :'(

With a bunch of bots? Seriously? Almost all of your links are resellers and bots, they always sell for above the range.

i will stay neutral as always, i dont like it to vote every week to give the keys again a higher price.

upboat

I've seen plenty of people in trade servers sell keys for 6 ref, but I can't verify that due to the lack of screenshots.

I would like to say, though, that the number of sellers above 6 ref seems insignificant compared to the number of sellers at 6 ref. I remember one of the admins accepting the Strange Hitman's suggestion to remove the high end simply because of how many sellers were available at the lower end, regardless of the occasional sale at the high end.

I would think the same should apply here, especially for a commonly sought-after item.

I understand where you are coming from, but this isn't the occasional 'above' 6 ref sale so to speak. I've researched a large chunk of op, only to find, as stated above, nearly every single 6 ref seller being sold out, out of stock, not selling at the moment, etc. You can verify that yourself if you'd like.

I'm not excluding the 6 ref range, I'm simply suggesting that there are plenty of 6.11 sellers and 6.11 buyers to be included in the range.

Only problem with all 6 ref sellers being out of stock is Keys are wanted by pretty much every trader and are almost essential for trading higher-up items (Unusuals, Strange Festives, higher-up Botkillers, etc.), so it only makes sense that people will take a fair deal whenever it appears. The only reason you don't see every Strange Hitman seller at 2 ref out of stock is because not everyone wants a Strange Hitman's.

Once again, I'd like to point out that the amount of buyers above 6 ref is incredibly insignificant compared to the buyers at 6 ref and should be considered as "quickbuying."

To put it in perspective: If three or four people were to post a trade buying a Strange Scattergun at 3 ref, should we raise the price to 2.66-3 ref regardless of the number of buyers and sellers at 2.66 ref? No because that's an incredibly small amount of people who bought for that amount. If there was only 10 S Scatterguns on the market then yes, but that's not the case - there's thousands on the market, just like Keys.

Lets put your 'scenario' into perspective. Lets say all hitmans that were being sold at 2.66 ran out of stock, and a high abundance of people are selling/buying the hitmans at 3 ref, then it would be sensible to include 3 ref in the range.

Your speculation that the keys are significantly required for higher level trading is wrong. There are mass unboxes out there who 'use' up the keys at the gambling expense of a chance of an unusual. But even then I'm stepping into speculation, and evidence, as above, is always > speculation.

And having nearly every seller at 6 ref being out of stock is very significant. If you can provide counter proof that 6.11 should not be in the range, then do it. Please stop stating your own hypotheses about this suggestion. Show recent proof that buying keys is MUCH more easier, in regards to your claim that my 6.11 proof is 'incredibly insigificant', and post on this suggestoon please. I spent nearly two hours of research on this, counter with your research.

Yes, if there was a high-abundance of people buying and selling at 3 ref then it would make sense to add 3 ref into the range.

Change that to keys - if there was a high abundance of people buying and selling at 6.11 ref, then it would make sense to add it to the range, but there isn't a high abundance of people buying at 6.11 ref. According to your research, only three people are buying at 6.11 ref.

But you want research, so here's research using your research:

6.11 ref buyers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14636193 - One for-sure add 5 days ago, but cannot verify if it was for 6.11 ref, nor can we verify that all of the keys in the buyer's BP were bought for 6.11 ref.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14653844 - Only buying for 6.11 ref if it's a bulk deal of 32 keys. Otherwise, he's only buying for 6 ref.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14744282 - Potentially bought one, but hasn't sold it for 6.11 ref yet. Too young to be used as proof or counter-proof.

6.22 ref sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14531035 - No keys in BP means sold, right? Well where the hell's all the metal? If I had to guess, this account is an alt and the metal is in his BP, but can't verify that either because of the amount of metal and keys in the potential main account's BP.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14654617 - I'd like to point out that this bot has bought 4 keys at 6 ref and only sold 3 keys for 6.11 ref in the last 4 days.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14465687 - Two weeks to sell 7 keys at 6.22 ref? Can't even verify if the keys were actually sold or if the seller is making up a number to make the trade look reasonable.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13686812 - Bot with changing prices. Can't verify how many have been sold at 6.22 ref. (Duped link, by the way)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14439995 - Selling for 6.11 ref. Still can't verify how many have been sold at that price.

6.33 ref sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14115354 - Not selling. Most likely changed price after being sold out based on the phrase "So imma sell these babies fur 6.33 Ref =) Enjoooy" after everything on the trade post. Can't verify how much was sold and for what, though.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13132197 - A trade that's been open for 2 months = changes price frequently. Only one for-sure add in recent times.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14727628 - Not sold actually. The guy who said "add me" has a private profile. Duped link, by the way.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13840965 - Has sold, but for what price? It's been open a long time, so prices have changed.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14728395 - Selling for 6.11 ref. Did you even read? However, this guy did sell his keys, but can't tell for what price.

And to summarize most of the 6.11 ref sellers:

Older trades that have changed prices frequently meaning unable to verify how many keys have been sold at 6.11 ref. Trades that are not that old don't have proof that they've sold at 6.11 ref with the exception of a few.

You have listed multiple links multiple times, by the way.

Also, this guy: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14730639 Says he bought two keys, not sold them.

Here's my theory - and I can't provide evidence unfortunately due to lack of time - Keys are at a flat rate of 6 ref, so people that aren't trying to buy at quicksell prices will obviously buy at 6 ref because keys are the most wanted item in trading. There are more buyers than there are sellers, so any seller that is selling for 6 ref is going to sell out quickly, leaving the 6.11 and above sellers. Due to the amount of 6 ref buyers, one trade at 6 ref will not get a lot of attention from sellers because there's plenty of other trades open willing to buy at the same price meaning one person could be waiting longer than others to get one key at the same price. Because people are impatient and want keys now, they'll either spend a little extra for a convenience fee or post a trade above average buying prices to get an add almost immediately - quickbuy. This is why you see some, but not all 6.11 ref and above sellers get adds - impatience.

Impatience is probably one of the bigger reasons why key prices continue to climb - why wait to buy at 6 ref when there are plenty of sellers at 6.11 ref?

With the amount of buyers at 6 ref and lack of buyers at 6.11 ref, along with the fact that 6 ref sellers are sold out, but 6.11 ref sellers are slow moving, it still seems like 6.11 ref is a quickbuy price.

Just remember that the ratio of key buyers to key sellers is like 100:1 - so many impatient buyers compared to the lack of sellers.

To be fair, Key Profiteers will pretty much always sell keys for more than Backpack.tf prices. Using them as proof just starts a cycle of inflation.

Gonna stay neutral on this one. I knew they'd get to 6 and I think that's fair end to the crazy key inflation.

I was actually going to make this suggestion, but I guess you beat me to it.

Also, it's worth mentioning that http://scrap.tf/keys buys them for 6 refined and sells them for 6.11.

I guess it's what it does, buys for the actual price but sells for key price + 1 scrap...

>Sees suggestion

Must... not... upvote...

*upvote*

Good proof. Even though I don't want keys to rise it was going to happen sooner or later

Honestly i think its stupid...People are always going to offer more for a key,its how they make money, and if you rise thier 'default' price, they will rise thiers. Though i do agree about 6 ref being a quicksell - 4 people added me at once to buy my 3 keys....

Just going to repost this for people who come on and say that key prices are too high.

There's a reason they're going up, and it's because of the thousands and thousands of people that used to idle and still do. There's constantly new metal being produced for free, and the most commonly desired item is the key, because it's a high value item that can't be found, and is also a currency commonly used for unusuals. Everything balances out here. If these keys didn't rise, there'd be a shortage of keys with people buying for cheap, unboxing for cheap, and selling unusuals for prices nobody could meet because keys would be being used much too fast.

Mmhm, 385*(1/18), that's 21.33+wep profit for me >:3

But still, I have to disagree. It's too soon for this, buying and selling at 6.00 ref is still pretty easy. And if you want to go with a range to make the market more flexible, I'd suggest the one that keybanking bots are using - 5.88-6.11 ref.

Btw, [url]http://tf2finance.com/keys/[/url], I'm just saying...

Give us some proof of your easy 6 ref buying and selling then? I rarely see 5.88 happening consistently, and like I've said before, it's better to have an accurate range rather than an appealing range. And of course there are keybanking bots that are going to try and buy below range because it's quick and easy to use them. Small fee for the quick trade, both for buying and selling. Don't forget the most common banking bot system though, scrap.tf is already at 6 ref buying and 6.11 selling. Just give us some recent proof of your 6 ref trading.

Selling at 6 ref is a piece of cake, you have 5 bots to choose from above, and those are just a tiny fraction of the number of 6 ref buyers. As I have stated, way too many for me to list.

When I started looking for 6.11 sellers, I basically ignored all of the 6 ref buyers, being honest here, it was taking up a lot of my time. The problem is the 6 ref sellers and I found only a few out of the hundreds of posts that had keys for sale. 5.88 is a quicksale no doubt, only saw one recent post that insta sold.

As long as the bud currency isn't too high the balance between the two currency's are are ok. Like buds used to be 28 keys now they are 19. That's my view on things anyway.

It keeps going up. Because people seem to now have a buffer if a price exists that is a -+0.33 buffer for them. have seen 6.33, but this is a start. Upvote.

unfortunately this is good proof, upvote

Isn't there a rule mentioned you have to raise it by 2 or more scrap? S

If the last key suggestion was more than a week ago, its fine to do so.

Took 2 days to find enough people selling at 6 ref to buy three keys. Up vote.

I bought today 20 keys for 6 ref in less than an hour. If this suggestion accepted keys sellers will start selling the keys for 6.22.

I remembered a couple weeks ago where the price of keys had not been touched for 3 WEEKS (Ikr), at that time I thought keys had finally stabled. Of course that was not the case. I don't think keys will stable until they hit Mann Co. Store price, which will never happen seeing as ref keeps going down. Anyway I'm just pointing this out. My vote is sadly.....up.

"6refs is now quicksell" 6 refs is not a quicksell, is the ONLY current price. Also do you know why resellers/bots trades should be invalid proof? Because if they sell for 6.11 it's because they bought those same keys for 6refs or even below, only valid bot/reseller will be someone that manages to buy keys for +0.11refs the backpack price and resell it for +0.22 refs. Bots buying for 6 refs doesn't mean anything

Not really sure if this counts, but been on trade servers for the pass 5 weeks buying keys for 5 refined each. Not sure if these are quicksells but...

Some were also bought at 5.33-5.66 just a few mostly 5 ref within the pass 5 weeks.

http://i.imgur.com/y6ngQMv.jpg (Bought 2)

http://i.imgur.com/iOomLkf.jpg (Bought 1)

http://i.imgur.com/rXIABqs.jpg (Bought 3)

http://i.imgur.com/z1OxsDs.jpg (Bought 2)

http://i.imgur.com/55GN8qK.jpg (Bought 5)

http://i.imgur.com/6RDNbYi.jpg (Bought 1)

http://i.imgur.com/7vMP0x7.jpg (Bought 1)

http://i.imgur.com/CHFn4tC.jpg (Bought 1)

http://i.imgur.com/lSOzPet.jpg (Bought 1)

http://i.imgur.com/dK8ca6s.jpg (Bought 2)

http://i.imgur.com/Xcav4Pz.jpg (Bought 3)

http://i.imgur.com/pEXg5Da.jpg (Bought 1)

http://i.imgur.com/ISCzg5E.jpg (Bought 1)

http://i.imgur.com/hLhHVDM.jpg (Bought 3)

http://i.imgur.com/Sw2O4Ur.jpg (Bought 1)

http://i.imgur.com/qVZnx7w.jpg (Bought 1)

http://i.imgur.com/CdgSaO6.jpg (Bought 2)

http://i.imgur.com/imOygMI.png (Bought 4, STB his signature.)

So far keys for me are still possible for 5-5.66 if you put effort in trying.

"pass 5 weeks." Last links are ok though.

That doesn't reall prove much but that there are lazy people on trade servers.

also, anything that is >1 week old is pretty much useless.

Guess you're right it may be useless, guess i need to pick up the paste this week.

However, it doesn't hurt to try there people out there who really want keys to drop yet they don't want to do work and put the effort to attempt to see if it's still possible.

Another key bought for 5.33 - http://i.imgur.com/IH0seJB.png

You keeping those keys by not re-introducing them into the market and using them for your own bloody good is not helping anyone either , except you.

Just answer my one question: What have you/ your group has done for the community that would help lower the key prices or how does hoarding of keys like you have done, you have 100 keys sitting in your backpack that should have been re-introduced into the market, helps lower the rising key prices?

Disliking comments would not change the truth that this group has nothing done to help lower the key prices except buying them for cheap; hoarding them and using them for their own good.

Are you any better then him by quickbuying festive weapons?

Indeed I am. Checking my selling trades. I have sold all the festive weapons, I bought, at very very very very low price then what is suggested on backpack.tf. Keeping a small portion of the profit to me. For example, if I bought a festive weapon for 1 key - which is priced at 1.5 keys on backpack tf then I sold the same for about 1.1-1.2 keys. And I did not make a stupid group going deceiving people that it's the actual price of the things because I was lucky to get things at that price.

Oh also it's not just festive weapons, I have flipped about 600+ bill's hat till date. You also might need to check my buying and selling prices of them.

And for the keys, the total number of keys that group has bought till date, I have bought more then that in the last month alone for the upper end of key prices.

Also there is a difference between trading and deceiving. That guy/group are not traders. They are bunch of thieves tricking people to believe that they are trying to help reduce the key prices when they have done nothing to help that cause. If it was just basic buy low/sell high practice it would not have worried me at all.

I am glad that you have deleted the group and edited your trade notes.

Doesn't mean i'll quit doing it :P

Still not sure where "Thieves and tricking people" we would help the reduce key prices, but bloody hell reading what someone sent me >1 week proof is invaild won't help with key suggestion every week or so when those >1 week proof doesn't help that means i would have to literally try and buy as many keys in 1 week then post on another key suggestion -.-

Then when i sell for 5 ref they count it as "Quicksell price" so that doesn't help either

If you would sell 1000 keys per week for 5 ref each, no would have the guts to say to say that it is a quick sell price.

You do not have to stop it mate. If you are lucky to get them for 5 ref each, then you are just very lucky. My whole argument was against the save the key group that you were trying to reason about. You need to prove yourself first before making those sort of groups. Your practice of buying keys under the name of doing good for the community was wrong. Now you have corrected yourself; that's all that matters.

Downvote I just bought 4 keys in 30 minutes for 6 ref i dont think it should raise

Do I REALLY have to counter-proof this/ recycle a 6 ref suggestion. These are still 6 ref people. This proof is shoddy and entirely insufficient, resellers and bots say very little about the current price, and although there are some valid links in there, the actual relevant proof amounts to about 1/10th of the links, if that. trade.tf, a very successful and reliable aggregator, has these as a flat 6 ref for a reason, no upper range, no lower range. If I have to make a 6 ref counter-suggestion I will. Easy downvote.

Trade.tf takes items in account, not just metal.

Keys are sold at TF2 store for $2.50, on the community market they are sold for almost $2.44 but yet the price for Refined Metal is .32 cents and 6x.32 only makes $1.92 hence i would definitely declare a rise in price or a rise in price for refined

Buy them on Steam Community Market for 2.02$ starting price.

Buy them on PayPal for 1.80$.

It's not that hard.

>community market 2.02$ starting price

cheapest there is is 2.40$

http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key

Although I do agree it's possible to get keys cheaper off PP.

>dota2 keys cheaper

Can't we just bring the price down rather than up? We all know this isn't acceptable anymore.

Why is it unacceptable if it is accurate?

http://tf2finance.com/keys/

Seriously, 6.02 ref is nowhere near 6-6.11 refined.

Downvote.

6.02 ref is in the range....

Damn I lost another chance to repwhore.

Anyway, proof looks good for the time being so I'll upvote.

I'm quite unsure about this idea, removing key prices altogether will not only cause the system to fail

Unusuals=USD/bud's USD price

Buds=bud's value in keys*key's value*ref in USD

Which means if keys didn't have any value listed at all, unusual prices would also have to be removed (x/(y*0*z)=error) unless they're just listed in USD, which isn't exactly the best solution, given how ambigously buds are priced.

As for making a wider range, I am kind of for it, since that'd cause less problems and complaints from people whining about how currencies can't be quicksold, etc. But that'd also cause people to ambigously price keys, as many either value them at their mid value, full value, or low value.

BTW, this is a bit off-topic, so it'd be a better idea to continue the discussion on the forums.

As long as keys are so tiddy-ly organized in these knit picked prices, these issues are here to stay. I don't believe there is any other solution.

The system hath already failed.

I am also for making a wider range. I also agree that key suggestions need to stop being posted at this rate. That's part of the reason why they raise easy. People with a skajillion keys in their backpack see the suggestion, and half the time it's an instant upvote. For those that actually take the time to consider, I thank you.

The issue is that as soon as you put 6.33 ref as key prices on backpack.tf, the traders would just bump up their price by 1 more scrap. The buying bots would go 6.33 each and selling at 6.44 ref, which would be nothing more then what is called "rinse and repeat".

I know buddy, I'm doing that right now. lol.

^.5-1 scrap per week

approx 4 weeks in 1 month

.75 scrap 4 weeks 3 scrap

------------ ------------ = -------------

1 week 1 month 1 month

Still possible to buy keys at 5,66

http://imgur.com/XeLH1F8

i dont like this, i dont like it at all -.-

but unfortunately you are correct...you have my upvote..

im going to upvote. but I have one question, why not higher since you have solds to go higher? or are they not enough?

outliers, which mean those are the few that either

1. desperatly needed a key

2. needed it for some occassion to overpay

3. wanted keys to go up

you ever take algebra? They sometimes give you data points...

for example:

78,79,67,68,75,72,80, -43

-43 is the outlier

yeah, I just was asking you didn't have to dislike my comment. I just didn't think they were outliers because there were a few of them. don't dislike this.

i didnt dislike....not that it makes a difference

ok I just thought since you seemed annoyed at me. sorry.

not at all

I'm going to assume because the buyers over 6.11 aren't nearly enough. But do exist and may be relevant in the future.

Recently bought 3 keys, found only 1 key for 6.00, and bought 2 at 6.11. Staying neutral on this one, however leaning towards an upvote.

He's right.

Reasons why keys rise:

1. Overstock of metal

2. People selling for a scrap more instead of the price due to greed

3. backpack.tf suggestions where people just instant upvote the suggestion without consideration

4. Keys turned into currency

I agree. It just makes me laugh when it reoccurs to me how people were arguing that "Valve killed idling" would bring down the keys to 2.33 ref each again lol. Those guys must be having a very hard time accepting this bitter truth. lol

I think a rise in price is in order. I have sold 5 keys just now in less than 10 minutes. But, I don't know if that's the case for everyone.

Just thought I'd have my input.

You still can. Try a new dota 2 key, just released ones.

I have still YET to see keys be sold for 6.11 in various trade servers. When I look at a suggestion, I think about what the public is actually paying, not what Outpost is doing, mainly because not everybody uses Outpost. And to me, people are rarely biting at 6.11 and sometimes even 6 ref. Downvote.

Stabilization COULD happen, if people stopped making price suggestions. Then they might just sell for a scrap higher than listed anyway. Or maybe people could stop trying to use TF2 as a source of income. Still though, upvote.

bought a key for lesser then 5.88 ref

proof: http://i.imgur.com/sF7WXh4.png

Hey merc! Unfortunately this has to happen, but the moment they hit 6 people have been selling for 6.11

seriously raising .11 to a key it doesn't make sense, I want you to answer this question to yourself: When did keys became really scarce? If they are really scarce then will raising.11 refs to it's price will encourage people to buy more keys from the store for the only purpose of trading it for metal?

The game is a lot more fun when the key goes up, anyways good proof upvote.

It's undeniable that backpack.tf has a major influence on the market. If this passes almost nobody will sell for 6 ref. Seriously, who wants to bet on this? Also, it's a currency, and a demanding one (and I don't mean the demand is increasing, but it always has a high demand). The lower end will always sell fast. If there is no lower end, it will sell fast anyway. Okay, there's my two cents. Go ahead.

A lot of counterproof provided here: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/524b74e74dd7b81a308b4568

6.11 happens. No doubt about it. But there are still some sales below that as well. And 6 ref by far seems the most commonly traded value. Finance has this at 6.03 as well. This is honestly a borderline case. and with borderline cases I always go with the community vote. 6 ref suggestion definitely garnered much more support even though it was a resuggestion at the same value