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Proof below. Overpay calculated
Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14325574 - Blizz Ten Galloon + 2 White Bills + 1 key in items = 2.3 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14201959
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198082360501?time=1378882800 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198082360501?time=1378969200
NnB Impaler + 9 keys = 3.3 buds
Side note: Used original price of 2.4-3.2 buds on the Impaler & took mid price since it was offered on
Conclusion
2 sales, vote accordingly :3
While the first sale went somewhat quickly, the range does seem to fit what with the hats value. Multiple b/o's at 3 from previous sellers. This is probably pretty close.