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Okay, I know there is only one, but since I traded it twice (bought and sold it) I am going to make a suggestion!
Unusual Overpay is valued at 0.9x the average value of the other item.
The first two owners of this item both had a b/o of 3 buds:
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13756655[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13841651[/url]
Okay, when I bought it, I payed in CS:GO items.
Proof: [url]http://puu.sh/4F5Td.png[/url] and [url]http://puu.sh/4F5Yi.png[/url]
StatTrak™ AUG | Wings ~ 1€
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet ~ 0.40€
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Doomkitty ~ 1.18€
M4A1-S | Dark Water ~ 0.70€
AWP | Lightning Strike ~ 10€
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo ~ 0.90€
? M9 Bayonet ~ 63€ (at that time)
= 77,18€
Since the prices are from the Steam Market, -15% => 65,60€
That is 2.45 Buds (Buds valued at 36.27$, which is 26.82€)
The fact that I got the trade is probably because I fulfilled his wish for a CS:GO knife and thus I did not fill in any overpay.
The seller himself had a trade up on TF2Outpost - [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13856911[/url] and was looking for 4 pure.
He had the following offers:
3.8-4.5 Roboactive Gridiron Guardian
~3 Dead Presidents Liquidators Lid (Price is a guess based on current b/o on Outpost here [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14715501[/url] and here [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14726203[/url])
So this kinda makes 3.5 buds.
Now to my re-sell.
Proof: [url]http://puu.sh/4F6EO.png[/url]
4.3 - 4.5 Miami Nights Old Guadalajara
10 keys
4.4*0.9+0.5 = 4,46 buds
Finally, because there is only one and there seems to be demand (and people agreeing to higher prices than the first owners wanted), I suggest a price range of 3.8-4.5.
Not too sure on how non-TF2 item sales will be taken but you have good proof and it seem solid. Upvote.
Yeah, I guess that can be a reason to downvote. However, with only 4 trades done on the item it is quite hard to find good evidence :S
Well technically, you only have/are using one sale. And for new effects/hats, you need atleast two.
One that is ~4.5
And 3 that are clearly below 3.
It appears that we should just wait for more info. There is just not enough to tell if the 4.5 or the <3 sales are the the outlers.