Suggestion: Orbiting Fire Modest Pile of Hat at 62.35–72.74 keys

Price Suggestion

~22 keys

o.fire

73 votes up

1 vote down

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This suggestion was accepted Fri, 04 Oct 13 13:29:51 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

There are quite a few that haven't sold in a while so I'm just looking at the ones that have sold recently.

My suggested value: 3-3.5. If you apply this suggestion as an offer for an over-payment in the near future, note that at the moment, it quick-sells for anything below three but has had at least three buy-outs of 3.5. Therefore three straight would be a fair value to give it. Don't use an inflated value to apply a formula.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14565543[/url] Had a buy-out of 3.5.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14582255[/url] Had a buy-out of 3.5.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14393173[/url] Had a buy-out of 3.5.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14565410[/url] Sold for no more than two buds and fifteen keys (about 2.7). This is the lowest (significantly) so I'm calling it a quick-sell since there's a higher pure offer in my last hyperlink.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14369208[/url] Quick-sold for 2.9. (Was it sharked before that?) Why is this a quick-sell? It sold within a day.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14491097[/url] He did receive an offer of two pure plus twenty keys, which is three pure.

Why three for the lower value? Because it can still receive three pure as an offer. Why a bump down to 3.5 for the higher value? Because of the three buy-outs that I showed above.

Unrelated: I make my suggestions based mostly on pure offers/sales/buy-out prices, as I've done here. My reasoning for this is that the over-payment formulae are often applied in what I call an unreasonable manner, often because the value used in such a formula ignores currency changes and time required to sell a hat. In this suggestion, with three buy-outs of 3.5, this hat's value can't exceed 3.5. If you do happen to find an offer that, when used in an over-payment formula, exceeds 3.5, please mention it here. I'm also hoping to make a suggestion demonstrating why a formula alone is not sufficient with a particular suggestion to refer to.

Examples of the faulty formulae (so please don't try to use these ones as counter-evidence):

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14320367[/url] "Stormy bonk boy if you add?" An over-payment formula calls that "3.9 if you add." However, this Bonk Boy is outdated. Here are three for 3.5: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14755648[/url], [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14680277[/url] and [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14231185[/url].

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14705170[/url] "clean unusual misc: orb fire brainiac hairpiece for modest " An over-payment formula calls this 3.6. This is outdated.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12472397[/url] "sunbeams big elfin deal for your hat + (8) keys " Formula calls this 0.9*4.6 + (8/19.5) =~ 4.55. Personally I think that he should've taken that because it was still a good offer. However, it didn't happen and the hat was sold elsewhere. The problem with this formula here is that the suggestion initially showed a buy-out of four straight for it ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13262426[/url]). The formula 0.9*4.6 (mean average * 9/10) attributes a higher value than the suggestion gave. Why wasn't this taken? Perhaps there are other properties of this hat that a formula doesn't consider (time to sell, for example).

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8273983[/url] "Miami nights shako" (by Robin). A formula calls this four straight or 4.1. Its suggested high value is currently 4.9. This sounds like an incredible offer. However, this is a case where the suggested value is now wrong. Robin just wanted four pure for it ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14262868[/url]). Another owner just wanted 4.1 ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14396680[/url]). Also, its initial suggestion was nowhere near 4.9 ([url]http://backpack.tf/vote/id/522e42c24f96f4f2788b4568[/url]). Currency changes have severely increased its suggested value.

Really, please post others if you find any and I will go through why they probably shouldn't be valued at what a formula gives (I don't make this guarantee definite since a formula may give an accurate value by sheer coincidence or if the hat in question was updated very recently).

High end is obvious and probably slightly high since it's based on b/o's. Low end is a bit hand wavy but not that far away. The real value of this is probably captured by your range.

If in 8 months the highest offer the guy gets is 3.5 pure, then 3.5 as a high end is reasonable: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8273983