Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 6–6.11 ref

how can there be counterproof? unless someone can prove that a lot of sales don't happen at 6.11, there really can't be. There is a reason this is a range.

That's exactly what ppmj was able to prove last week. He gave a lot of proof that the key should be priced at 6 ref flat and 6.11 should be considered an outlier.

Your proof is quite good actually, but I'm still abstaining from voting until it develops further.

Or well, you know what, nevermind, I'm upvoting.

ahh I see...well ill just counter that counterproof if it comes along

You just have 24 keys. .-.

see someone like me is gnna make alot of profit from this.

BTW im a bit confused by something: Keys go up, so promos go down naturally. But does ref go down because keys go up as well? I thought ref was it's own currency

Yeah, metal and keys go hand-in-hand. So if keys rise in value, refined drops in value.

I can't believe I actually went through 480+ pages of trade.tf to get this...

I indeed have too much free time...

Well, there's nothing better than a helping hand, if you know what I mean. :mrbean:

Now THIS is how you get things done~

My apologies if any link is duped/has incorrect timestamps, I did this in roughly 2 hours so I might've made some mistakes.

6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14840792 - Instasold, 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14841271 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14841197 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14841584 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14841646 - Sold unknown (20+?) amount within 2 days, supposedly a troll post

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14841875 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14842173 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856111 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14842802 - Instasold

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9819965 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14843427 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14849336 - Instasold, 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14849655 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14848759 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14848923 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14843318 - Instasold, 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850877 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850754 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14843556 - Instasold

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9820029 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14843663 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14848582 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14757703 - Sold 2 within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14844000 - Sold (according to trade.tf) 26 within a bump.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14844345 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14847372 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14847681 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14849103 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14849026 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14855057 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14855407 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14862827 - Sold 3 within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14847353 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14844307 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14844662 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14848124 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14854995 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14855221 - Instasold, 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14845591 - Instasold, had 10+

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14845703 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14852968 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14853123 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14863346 - Instasold, 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14853504 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14853709 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14864820 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14864808 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14852290 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14848996 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14857871 - Instasold, 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14848415 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14863884 - Instasold

http://bazaar.tf/trade/464652 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14862320 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14853011 - Sold 8+ within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14855752 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14854818 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14852410 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14863673 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850512 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850185 - Sold 5 within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850161 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850452 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14863640 - Instasold 10+

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850437 . Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14862982 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14863051 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14855753 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14853608 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14858331 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14860728 - Instasold, 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14863346 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14858163 - Instasold, 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14852829 - Instasold, 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14846183 - Instasold, 3

6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14840776 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14862211 - Instasold, 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14858232 - Sold within an hour

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14841411 - Sold 8+ within an hour

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14854377 - Instasold

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9821373 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14841529 - Sold 4 within an hour

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14846147 - Instasold

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9821658 - Sold 8

http://bazaar.tf/trade/464471 - Sold within an hour

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14854720 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14857499 - Sold 4 within an hour

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14846911 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14863662 - Instasold (Mr. Bucket...?)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14862932 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856088 - Instasold, 8+

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856191 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856250 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14855596 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14841836 - Sold out on first day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14842162 - Sold within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14852266 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14842618 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14864123 - Sold 5+ within an hour

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14853902 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14842604 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14854458 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14864612 - Sold within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14857133 - Instasold, 6

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14851958 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14842552 - Instasold

http://bazaar.tf/trade/465228 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14851227 - Instasold, 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14853509 - Instasold

http://bazaar.tf/trade/465163 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850435 - Instasold, 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850560 - Instasold, 2 (misleading)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14852728 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14865621 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14853472 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14855123 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14843197 - Instasold, 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14843902 - (6.11 + wep) Sold within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14844497 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856521 - Instasold, 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14844469 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14866231 - Inastasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850527 - Instasold, 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14854935 - Instasold, 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14847653 - Instasold

http://bazaar.tf/trade/464528 - Sold out (12+) within 10 hours

http://bazaar.tf/trade/463881 - Instasold (2 views lol)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14844944 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14849001 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856439 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14847431 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14847699 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14851429 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14845804 - Instasold, 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14844900 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14845307 - Sold 12 on first day (within 7 hours at the most)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14845520 - Sold 2 within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14846187 - Instasold

6.22 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14840710 - Sold 6 within 2 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14842699 - Sold out within 8 hours (had 10+)

http://bazaar.tf/trade/464005 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856314 - 20+, sold out within 2 hours

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9821177 - Sold 8 (within less than a day)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850623 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14849365 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14859464 - Instasold

http://bazaar.tf/trade/464916 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14860774 - Sold within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14857994 - Sold 2 within an hour

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856827 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14865588 - Sold 10+ within 2 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14851644 - Sold 2 within 3 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14851722 - Sold 8+ within 4 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14844297 - Sold 2 within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14848875 - Instasold

http://bazaar.tf/trade/465616 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856415 - Sold 10+ within 3 hours

http://bazaar.tf/trade/464521 -Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14866173 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14853810 - Insasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14852316 - Sold 6 within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14847208 - Sold within an hour

6.33 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14845368 - Sold within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850186 - Sold 5 within 12 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14845273 - Sold 3 within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850493 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14847532 - Instasold

http://bazaar.tf/trade/465518 - Sold within 16 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14858755 - Instasold, 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856588 - Instasold, 4

http://bazaar.tf/trade/465509 - Sold within 16 hours

http://bazaar.tf/trade/465516 - Sold within 12 hours

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14852543 - Instasold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14845940 - Sold 5 within 3 hours

6.44 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14842758 - Sold 6 within 12 hours (impressive)

6 ref is undeniably a quicksell now. An update is in order. GG Ppmj. This is a definite upvote now, I believe it could be slighlty higher, but well, being conservative is better to prevent anything bad. I just hope the #STK guys are not hating on me, cleverpun told me not to get into any stupid arguments or else.

Halfway through I actually was like "fuck this shit, I'm out" but then came back, gg.

In other news, I'm finally #3, hooray!

Pyroman sealed the deal.

... Do I really have to do this. With regards to the original suggester, your proof is bad. It's that simple. The links I would personally consider valid from your proof:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14815234 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14830546 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14627232 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14734904 sold some, up for a week, not a blatant reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14763280 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14817027 6.11 ref

http://bazaar.tf/trade/382621 6.22 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14848869 6.33 ref

Yes I'm not joking. Every other link is a key bot/ a key reseller/ every single key on the trade has an implicit 6 ref or lower purchase behind it. How can you use those sales to justify a 6.11 ref range hike? Clearly people are selling to the bots for 5.88-6, why wouldn't you use those sales as proof? (Maybe because bot proof based on convenience is bad proof, and reseller proof is bad proof based on the fact that there is always that implicit sale behind it)

Okay so now I'm basically considering pyro's comment to be the new suggestion. Your links are all a day old, so I'm assuming this was made in preparation for a key suggestion. Your 6.22-6.44 proof is abhorrent, I'd suggest looking into it a little further, your statement considering an even higher range to be valid is extremely speculative and without basis. Just a few points:

2nd link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14867409 as you can see here, he's lowered his price to 6.16 and still unsuccessful. No evidence indicates he ever sold out. His trade is also relisted in your proof.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856314 http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9821177 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856415 hey look, same guy 3 times. I'm sure he sold out within 10 hours, instasold, etc. Except wait, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14860828 sold for ~6.11. k.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14848875 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14786957 has been selling for 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14852316 ... 6.11 not 6.22

http://bazaar.tf/backpack/76561198089309240 you have him on 3 of your bazaar links, he just reposted all of his keys and took the trades down when they didnt sell.

Etc. Many of your 6.22-6.33 trades went on to go down to 6.11 to sell, while you say they instasold, etc.

Bottom line, your > 6.11 ref proof is basically invalid. Now, your 6.11 proof seems to have about a ~50% reseller rate. Which isn't bad. However, some are actually 6 ref sales (4 links, I pasted them here but internet crashed) and quite a few are relists (to be expected). I withhold judgement based on lack of time to actually evaluate all of them past a basic analysis, but bottom line, your sample size ratio between 6 key sales and 6.11 key sales is different than mine, even removing the repeats and 6 ref sales.

Would prefer to not have to price keys on a non peak hour/non peak day. However, here are the unbiased complete past 16 hours of posted/completed key trades, sample size can give an accurate representation of the market. I tried to leave more notes on the actual amount, but again only really prioritized notes on the 6.11 key sales. many 6 ref key sale links have over 1 sold

Sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14882899 5.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14882679 5.88 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875291 5.88 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14882522 5.88 ref 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14884595 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14884397 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14880747 6 ref

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9822709 6 ref 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14884309 6 ref

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9823360 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14880394 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14872104 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14880210 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14879937 6 ref 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14879762 6 ref

http://bazaar.tf/trade/466873 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14882542 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875428 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875375 6 ref 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14884250 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14877902 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873332 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14874213 6 ref 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873743 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14880801 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14880986 6 ref

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9822990 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14878635 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14877628 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14877554 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14877503 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14878350 6 ref

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9822539 6 ref 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14878312 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873059 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14872327 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14874298 6 ref 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873322 6 ref 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14871955 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14871706 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876448 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14874457 6 ref

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9822478 6 ref 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875541 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875467 6 ref 8

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876060 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873362 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14871180 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14885050 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876388 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14885527 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14877033 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14871273 6 ref 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873373 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875671 6 ref 6

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876780 quite a few at 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876745 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876675 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873079 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14877032 6 ref 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876859 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14872444 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14872572 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14872477 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14880898 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14885216 6 ref

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9823207 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14870917 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14870892 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14871355 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875840 6 ref 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14879609 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14872823 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14879514 6 ref

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9823273 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14882874 6 ref 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14882807 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14884203 lot for 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14884190 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14884118 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14884106 6 ref

http://imgur.com/a/BSiXK 24 separate key sales at 6 ref, 2 at 5.88 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14883941 6.11 ref 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14881505 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14884147 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876578 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876507 6.11 ref 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875209 6.11 ref quite a few

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14874474 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876039 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875946 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876245 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873657 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873054 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873690 6.11 ref 9 keys bulk

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14882645 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14872869 6.11 ref bulk 20, bought all for 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875307 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14872399 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14872092 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14876793 6.11 ref sold in bulk

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14872695 6.11 ref 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14877034 sold quite a few at 6.11, just bought 8 for 6 ref and sold for 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873387 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14873102 6.11 ref 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14879140 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14878220 6.11 ref 4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14883771 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14883238 6.11 ref

http://bazaar.tf/trade/466966 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14881959 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14879347 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14879618 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14883208 6.11 ref 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14883081 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14881219 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14881066 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14883031 prob 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14882966 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14882937 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14881555 6.11 ref (quite a few, bulk)

selling

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14885234 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14885623 6 ref 6

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/461213 ..

http://bazaar.tf/trade/467195 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14881121 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14885203 6.11 ref sold 1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14875773 6.11 ref unbumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14884125 6.11 ref

http://bazaar.tf/trade/466987 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14880059 6.11 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14879361 6.11 ref

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9823235 6.11 ref

Sellers aren't too relevant.

So now lets explore the buyers that would reinforce this new range.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14867669 6.05 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14794456 6.05 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14729034 6.11 for 10+

That's it. So essentially, less trades buying for > 6 than a week ago. Looking through buyers trades, basically every 5.88-6 buying post has plenty of interest/ adds. And there are tons of buying posts for 5.88 and 6 ref. And if you look, you are still finding an unarguable majority of key sales at 6 ref, just on new trades alone.

Take this information how you will. To me personally, this indicates that despite 6.11 ref "gaining ground" 6 ref is still a solid price point. Many of these 6.11 links, again, have implicit 6 ref sales attached to them and are resellers or are bulk sales that only took place for convenience. However it's harder to discount resellers and bulk sales than it is to discount bot sales, so I included them for reference/transparency. Either way, the most recent/relevant proof cant hurt. This is a downvote from me personally, see no reason for it, market is very similar to what it was a week ago if you actually go link surfing/look through people's proof. (And I will say, having looked through the market and compiled similar data 3 times in 3 weeks now, I can say that the market still basically looks the exact same, despite how many new key suggestions that have been shot down now?)

My opinion should have no affect on your personal interpretation of the market/the data. Feel free to disagree with the conclusion that I have drawn, this proof was compiled to give voters the most clear view of the market possible, and was not compiled to impose my will/market opinion on the key. I went into researching with a completely unbiased opinion and formulated it based on what I personally saw and compiled.

Now this is closer to what I was saying.

You should look at my last key suggestion/ the flame war that I started in there for reference on what not to do on key suggestions, since I made a lot of the same points that you did. lol. It's basically futile, despite an intelligent discussion on the role of bp.tf (my opinion) being constructive and not being at all spam.

Even though I was in a hurry, I completely made sure none of my links were bots, so that's one argument off.

Second, I know it's very likely an implicit 6 ref sale is behind any of the 6ref< sellers, but if you DO check the links, most (70%+) of them actually have some (rather useless) added posts, which through history are verifiable.

If I recall correctly, none of my links were resellers either (save for a few). Also, the fact that many owned a single key doesn't make them less valid at all.

All of the listed sellers at 6 ref sold extremely quickly (within seconds), which means that getting keys at 6 ref is hard (other than having a buying post up).

Also, how come buyers>sellers? Sure, buyers can get as many adds as they want, but the only thing that it proves is that 6 ref is common (already in range) and that there are lots of lazy people out there, who could have a post selling their keys higher and inmediatly sell it.

I didn't take the time at all to check reposts, after all there was already a disclaimer. I probably just based myself on timestamps and on whether or not the keys had a new owner.

If anything, YOUR proof also suggests that 6.11 ref is taking a good place in the market, and is probably just as common as 6 ref is.

I don't really want to throw bullshit around here, so let's keep the discussion civilised.

TL;DR 6 ref sells extremely quickly, and 6.11 is definetely doable.

Alright, wasn't going to comment on this but I have some free time. Never said your links were bots, the first section of my discussion is targeting the original suggestion, which people are for whatever reason calling good/valid when it clearly is not.

Now, considering the fact that you consider a vast majority of your 6.11 links non-resellers, I'd like to take a bit of time to go through them now. Here are resellers/invalid links on 6.11 sales on your list of proof.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/372432 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856191 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14858232 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14854377 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/271078 reposted twice, sold ~8 total not 4 and then 8

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9821658 6 ref not 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14854720 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14862932 lowered and sold for 6

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14863051 originally listed 6.11, relisted and sold at 6 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14854720 reseller, bought his 4 relatively quickly and sold relatively quickly

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/249257 trade server reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/25810 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/178426 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/423926 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/415982 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/468715 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/458239 relist, reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14864123 reseller, restocks frequently

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14797235 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/476610 reseller, bought another one at 6

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14864612 relist

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14857133 6 ref not 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14851958 6 ref not 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14851227 relist

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/154205 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14850560 6 ref not 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/475702 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14865621 6 ref not 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14853472 6 ref not 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/447835 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/178782 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14856521 6 ref not 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14866231 6 ref not 6.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14854935 relist again

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/322798 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/284930 relisted multiple times at 6 when they didnt sell at 6.05/6.11 (person listed twice under 6.11)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14847431 relist, reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/377197 reseller

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/357388 reseller

Some of these cover multiple links. You say you didn't have any resellers, I'd say that shows easily ~70% (undoubtedly more) of your 6.11 ref proof to be either 6 ref sales or resellers. I'd say that ratio carries over into my proof as well. Hopefully this helps lazy people sort through/evaluate the links "justifying" the high end. I'd say it's anything but justified at this point.

I don't see 6 ref being a hard buying point, considering it's still the price point where the vast majority of key sales take place. This argument is invalid to me, and is based on a market opinion that deviates from the facts and evidence.

That is your opinion and I respect it. I look at all the evidence and my proof and have the exact opposite opinion. The only place that 6.11 has in the market is with bulk trades/resellers/bots. I've shown that even on off-peak hours and on an off-peak day, people are not forced to buy keys at 6.11 even on trade sites for any reason other than convenience, and there are plenty of people content to sell at 6 ref or less. This upper range is the basis of profiteering alone and is invalid.

I have respect for what you do/ the time you put into suggestions, despite the proof sometimes being somewhat rushed. No intention of throwing bullshit around, or being anything but civilized.

I agree that 6 ref is not extremely hard to get but it actually sells fast, pretty much around this time halloween coming up keys have more demand that ever, 6 ref sellers can sell keys quite easily at the average, and 6.11 also happens somewhat frequently. It's not a matter of majority, but 6.11 is already taking place (yes I already said it) in the market. Sure,there are 5.88 sellers and buyers as well, but currently that seems to be at less than 10% of the market, whilist probaly ~60% of it is at 6 ref. I support this suggestion because I know 6.11, and possibly slightly higher if lucky enough, is highly possible.

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2580-the-one-and-only-key-price-topic-no-flame-wars-please-discussion-only/page-21#entry48131 this link needs to be up here, everyone needs to evaluate this data before they make an informed decision.

I interpret it as a powerful reinforcement of a 6 ref price/the market stabilization/the flat 6 ref trade.tf stabilization personally. Don't know how you can come away from this data with the same outlook, but either way it speaks for itself. Not going to directly respond to that ^ because this data is a lot more important than speculation, already have pleeenty of it on this suggestion (along with 3-4 suggestions worth of links lol) and when I start to speculate I get very spammey. Just going to say I disagree with your market opinion

I told you before. Trade.tf. Takes. Items. Into. Account. Not. Just. Metal.

I read through the whole discussion. basically the problem is people are trying to make money of of currency or A.K.A. keys. Now you can make money off hats, and stuff. Thats okay. Thats means the hats are rising in demand. But who in his right mind would try to make money off of currency?! Its like someone saying, SELLING ONE U.S. DOLLAR FOR $1.30. And then one dollars isn't 100 cents anymore. Its 130 cents. Think about it. *Downvote

Ok I'm tired of people bulls******* about resellers not valid proof. I've used resellers in a lot of my suggestions and they seem like the most convincing proof. I guess for some reason it doesn't apply for keys all the sudden. If anything they are more better types of proofs if they manage to sell multiple keys. They are almost essentially quickbuying keys for 6 ref because they know they can get easy profit for 6.11. Relist for keys are very common; they are CURRENCY. More than likely selling another fresh stock.

So basically your proof is saying that large amount of people sells for 6 ref only if you're quick and lucky enough to add them fast enough. Otherwise you would walk to the 6.11 sellers which given to your proofs proves that 6.11 cannot be ignored and must be included in the range.

there is me :D

"Hi mom!"

Dam, can't argue with that... Upvote... Though when the keys go up so will the prices from people who are trying to make a profit. I think once the prices goes to 6.11 there will be sellers at 6.33, if we ever get to 6.33 (Hope not :P) there will be sellers at 6.66.. GOD DANG IT!

That's what happens Chicken. People "Upvote" because of resellers... and people who don't have time to go through 84 pages of BS Proof saying that people are currently selling at 6.44/ea "Instasold" I laughed at that.. The moment this gets "upvoted" which it will either soon or someone will just constantly repost all this same proof, into another suggestion. keys will be sold for 6.22 "Easier" on outpost, from the same people who sell them not for 6.11 after buying them for 6 ref. In essence.. people just constantly buy keys because they know in a week, they can resell them for a scrap more. If we stopped changing the price on keys, they would fall.. because less and less people would be able to sell them for more then bp.tf.

PS- Have had a selling at 6.22 trade up for about 2 weeks now, have gotten... 1 person total at like 4 in the morning. (Most likely no one else was even on to sell them keys) the point is. It's extremely hard, if not impossible to sell for 6.22.. and 6.11 is just the 1 scrap impatient people range. It's "Implied" that every item pricechecked can be sold slightly more/bought less then what it's pricechecked at... So. Leave it alone. If we never increase it, sales will never be successful at 6.22

Very strong proof, up voted

This is what's happening to buds... in REVERSE :O

you have a lucky number of keys

Good Proof, Actually ALOT!!!

UpBOAT!!!

upboat.

Owns 42 keys, sell 4 HOUWAR collecter numberrrrrrrrrrrrr

To think it was gonna stabilize ;~; upvote...good proof...

Aww ;( sad upvote

I hate prices of keys... I really don't get it, why it went from 2 refs to 6.

Besides, I just buy from the store anywayz c:

~~Downvote, there's no FAQ like the other guy that only for his FAQs I always upvoted him, SCREW DA LINKZ!~~

your proof is full of resellers who buy for 6 refs and sell for 6.11, validating those kind of traders as proof will be very hypochrite, becuase those same keys that were sold for 6.11 were bought for 6 refs, why not using just the buys at 6 refs as proof then? For this reason all those links should be discarded

Thats why the price range is 6-6.11 though I'm pretty sure after this people will try to sell for 6.22 and a new suggestion with 6.11-6.22 or something like that.

I strongly recommend everyone to read this. Even though you have (what seems to be) very strong and correct evidence (I own bots and my trade is shown as evidence in the 6.22 group), as a PhD candidate in a closely related field, I think the key prices should stay at 6 ref. Here are the logical, economical and scientific reasons:

Logical Reasoning:

Many bot-traders, including scrap.tf, try to make some profit by reselling items (think of costs to operate, e.g. electricity). In order to make profit, you either have to buy for less than the suggested price, or sell for more than the suggested price. From my experience, buying at the suggested price and selling for more tends to work better than buying for less and selling at the average price (see scrap.tf). This is simply because people who sell their keys want to sell them at full price since it is pure, but people who want to buy keys are willing to pay more. Thus, us traders will on average, charge more than the suggested price, REGARDLESS of where the price is at. That is, if the key price increases, we will simply charge more, and it will increase again.

Now you can argue, if noone buys keys for your price, the prices would drop. This is in fact true, but you're overlooking the fact that the key prices on the market has increased, and also keys are universal currency for trading other stuff (games, etc), and their demand never goes down (due to unboxing, game resellers, etc.). If the demand ever goes down, that would mean the TF2 economy as a whole is going down (I seriously expect the economy will crash within a year, thanks to this website you're on.).

Economical effects:

That being said, stabilizing the key price at a level would PREVENT the crash of the economy, because keys are THE CURRENCY. Think of keys as the currency of a country, say US Dollars. You don't really want your currency fluctuating too much (think of USD, EUR, JPY, etc) because it will either hurt your importers (buyers) or exporters (sellers) within your country. Additionally, it will even affect other pseudo-currencies (e.g. BUDS, MAX'S, etc). This causes buds to drop, unusuals to do whatever (LOL).

Statistics:

Scientifically speaking, your evidence is meaningless (as with all the evidence in most suggestions). You are not looking at the whole dataset, and you did not do any kind of random sampling from all sources, therefore your data is highly biased. Your data (mostly) only comes from TF2Outpost (and not servers where the majority of the trade happens), AND you have not included the 6 ref or below sales. In statistics, in order to consider a change significant, you need to do hypothesis testing, and try to reject the null hypothesis (no change) with a (globally accepted) 95% confidence. There are many ways to do this (eg ANOVA).

Bottom line:

LET THE PRICE BE CONSTANT. LET PEOPLE BUY AND SELL IT FOR SLIGHTLY LESS OR MORE. WE DON'T HAVE TO KEEP CHANGING THE PRICE. THERE IS NO END TO THIS, AND IT'S CAUSING MORE HARM THEN BENEFIT.

None of your arguments make any sense: Keys are commodity money, not a simple currency; You are comparing keys to a currency, then turning around and comparing them to countries, and then extending that comparison to other countries, which manages to be both an oversimplification and completely confuse the matter at the same time.

I had hoped that someone with a Master's degree working on a doctoral thesis would be able to express themselves without obtuse comparisons.

Go to the forums to post paragraphs worth of armchair analysis; key suggestions are not the place.

This is a verbal warning to not spam further.

I completely disregard your warning as what I wrote is not a spam, and ignorant is not an insult to someone who hasn't read. Instead, what the other person wrote, beginning with TL,DR is a spam on my comment, and with some insight you should be warning TL,DR persons instead.

What I wrote is just a short summary of many things that could be said. I used the analogies to make readers of different age groups understand what's going on, and in no place have I said this is an academic discussion. You're right on the country thing though, I just realized I meant to say currencies of other countries, not countries in that analogy.

This is the place to discuss the key prices, and that is precisely what I am doing, rather than saying "OMG TLDR UPVOTE".

ps. It is not your place to comment on my background, please be more respectful.

He was in now way disrespectful, lol. He was just as nice as you were! GOLDEN RULE MY FRIEND, GOLDEN RULE.

ps. I would've thought someone with a Master's would've understood that by now.

Good proof, upvote from me. Watch as my bp price remains the same.

I hate to break it too you mate but cleverpun is actually a female so that would be she not he.

Implying Cleverpun isn't a man or FBI

THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING

I did warn them, at the same moment I warned your comment.

Suggestions are not your blog, as the site rules clearly state; http://backpack.tf/vote?showrules=1 I am sure that a learned person like yourself read them before using the site, which is why I'm reminding you of them now.

This is the place to discuss proof and counterproof, not to speculate or opine. We have forums for that over here; http://forums.backpack.tf/

And it IS my place to comment on your background, especially when you are attempting to use it to barter for validation of your ideas, instead of letting them speak for themselves. Even more so when your statements don't support your alleged credentials.

My warning stands; stop spamming. If you need a ban to help you cool off and collect your thoughts, then that is fine too.

I stand by what I said. Again, please know your place and do not sarcastically comment on my background. I added that information there not to barter for validation; I do not gain or lose anything from validation of my ideas in this environment. I also have no financial gain in this, contrary to the original poster who has a good amount of keys. Could I have written a much more detailed analysis if I was asked constructively? Yes. Would I? Seeing these comments, no.

Not everyone visits the forums before every single vote they cast. As for the rules, I suggest you to either revisit, or revise them as my original post contains nothing that classifies it as spam; on the contrary, it is constructive criticism to what's going on here. You are talking about proof and counterproof, but without validity, they are spam by themselves.

I can see why you are irritated by my initial post though, I'll try to be less hard on the site next time. There is no need for a ban, I will stop commenting on this matter, if you stop being disrespectful.

ps. I am sorry I failed to notice your warning on the other person, looks like you're doing your job indeed.

Please stop this chain of flaming comments. If you would like to contribute, do it by giving valid and positive arguments for my case, not by cheering and chanting, and disparaging and admin. She has shown her *cough*dis*cough*agreement by not continuing. Thank you.

My lack of response was not an implicit agreement; in fact, it was just the opposite. I know very well when it is pointless to argue with someone, because of their stubbornness, incomplete understanding of the situation/overused arguments, and most importantly the inappropriate venue.

Statistics and sense play no part in this. The fact of the matter is prices are rising and thus as a pricing site which updates prices based on what the market is at. We don't decide key prices here, the market does. What we do is just tell people the suggested price based on what the current market is. You say we don't use trade servers as evidence but we can't use what we cannot know as evidence

Tl;dr: Its not up to us if keys rise

You are wrong, it IS up to us to make prices rise or not.

No, its not. Please learn how this site works. The prices on this site are based on the current market. If the market changes, this site's prices change

I suggest you to try and understand how trading works. This site affects market's prices more than market prices affect this site: almost everyone playing the game and trading takes this site as a reference; but the suggestions on this site are far from considering every trade. The effects are coupled. But this side provides an incorrect, albeit amplified feedback.

Please just take this to the forums.

Actually, it does make sense. If the suggestion can pass without any votes, why are people even here?

To repwhore for a chance to win a key (or unusual if premium) every month via raffle. Other than that, I don't see a reason at all.

my reason to be here is dictated

this have a lot of sense, I agree with you

I only read this

"LET THE PRICE BE CONSTANT. LET PEOPLE BUY AND SELL IT FOR SLIGHTLY LESS OR MORE. WE DON'T HAVE TO KEEP CHANGING THE PRICE. THERE IS NO END TO THIS, AND IT'S CAUSING MORE HARM THEN BENEFIT."

And that's the same as:

"LET'S MANIPULATE THE PRICE BY KEEPING IT AT A CERTAIN VALUE."

No. We (backpack.tf) follow the market trends, we don't set prices or dictate them.

You, my friend, are a hero.

He's no hero, as Ramses said, he's just one of the many manipulators, who are actually hypocrites (not directed to anyone specific, don't shoot me down clever) as Hatch said some time ago.

I love how #savethekeys has come and pretty much flamed cleverpun for saying actually rational things instead of this bogus stuff right above this comment.

You should read this, btw

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2580-the-one-and-only-key-price-topic-no-flame-wars-please-discussion-only/page-21#entry48131

What does a dead group have to do with a point being proven?

they're still alive, they may be trolls, but they're still alive

I have no connection to #savethekeys, in fact it's the first time I hear about them.

Thanks for the forum link, he is referring to me and I will join the discussion there.

Logic =/= evidence

"Thus, us traders will on average, charge more than the suggested price, REGARDLESS of where the price is at."

One of the flaws in your reasoning is that you assume keys have a dictated price. That there is a governing entity that sets the price of keys. You are assume that the backpack.tf price of keys is the standard that all the sales of keys revolves around.

In fact, the sale of keys has no entity governing and regulating those sales. Traders buy and sell at the prices they want to pay.

When more and more and more traders or bots have success buying at "X" and reselling at "X + .11" then there is evidence that the price "X" is too low. The faster and faster that keys selling for price "X" get bought, there is evidence that the price "X" is too low. When more and more keys sell successfully at "X + .11" there is evidence that "X" is too low. This is fact.

" This is in fact true, but you're overlooking the fact that the key prices on the market has increased, and also keys are universal currency for trading other stuff (games, etc), and their demand never goes down..."

Exactly, that is why keys will always go up and up and up and up and up and up. Refined has no real world value associated with it, you get refined for free by playing. You do not get keys for free, you pay $2.50 for each key.

Refined has no useful value either. Keys have utility becuase they can potentially unbox unusuals worth dozens of keys. All that refined can do is craft hats, the same hats that are unboxed by keys. Keys not only serve the same function as refined (the creation of hats), they do more. Keys will always be worth more than refined and they will always have more demand than refined. And as long as that is true, people will be willing to pay more and more refined for a key, if this wasn't the case, then keys would still be 1.66 refined.

"That being said, stabilizing the key price at a level would PREVENT the crash of the economy..."

This is your big mistake. The phrase "stabalizing the key price..." implys taking action. You are saying that someone or somthing should take action and ensure the stabalization of the price of keys in order to do good and noble deeds such as "prevent the crash of the economy".

You continue to imply this when you say things like "You don't really want your currency fluctuating too much..." You are using the second person to compare the way a country manipulates its currency to how "stabilizing the key price...". You are trying to imply that someone or somebody should take action and control the price of keys like a country controls its currency.

The intent of Backpack.tf is to represent the market, not to dictate it, stabalize it, control it, or manipulate it. But traders use backpack.tf as more than just a market representation, they use it as if it was dictating the price. The staff at backpack.tf understand that people will follow backpack.tf like a strict pricelist and has already placed ample measures to prevent backpack.tf leading the market by restricting key (and now bud) suggestions to larger changes over longer periods of time.

But that is all that we can do. We will continue to represent the market and what is occuring. We will continue to show that more buyers are paying "X" and more people selling for "X + .11" We will continue to show how quickly "X" sells and reasonably "X + .11" sells. We will continue showing bots buying at "X" and selling at "X + .11" that are selling keys faster than they can buy them. We will continue showing that people are willing pay more and more and more for keys and that traders will continue to profit and profit and profit by taking inititive and buying out all the keys at "X" and reselling them for "X + .11".

We will continue to show that the free market is the source of the refined price increase of keys and that it is free market entrepreneur's who are profiting off of flipping keys and that it is everyday people like you and me who continue to pay more and more for these keys and there is nothing that we are going to do to stop it or control it.

"Scientifically speaking" we are not a statistical warehouse using proven scientific methods of analysis and probability with vast quantities of market data aquired without bias. We are people who use human ingenuity, reasoning, and logic to try to represent prices as opposed to a machine that uses advance scientifically proven statistical algorithms to procure accurate data samples. If you have a problem with that, then you can stop using backpack.tf.

I don't care what kind of credentials you have, your opinion and reasoning don't matter because backpack.tf prices by human-based market representation and that will never change.

Let me point out that I have not specified any price in my argument. I am not trying to prove/disprove a particular suggestion. I am only arguing with your comment.

Thank you for spending your time to write a criticism to my post. While I understand your point of view, and ideologically agree with some of the things you said; I think it is too verbose, and only makes few points, some of which are wrong in a practical sense. I will focus on what and why I disagree to keep this short:

Your second and third paragraphs, regarding the governing entity:

Backpack.tf, just like its predecessor tf2spreadsheet, is THE governing entity for determining the price of almost anything in this game. People already know this, and you have to understand this, otherwise we're on a completely different level for anything else. To convince yourself, see how people rely on the in-game !pc command. Therefore, whatever you put here has an absolute and undeniable effect on the price.

"When more and more and more traders or bots have success buying at "X" and reselling at "X + .11" then there is evidence that the price "X" is too low. The faster and faster that keys selling for price "X" get bought, there is evidence that the price "X" is too low. When more and more keys sell successfully at "X + .11" there is evidence that "X" is too low. This is fact."

This is a WRONG fact, if any. Mathematically, what you're saying here is that, we should raise the price X so high that X+.11 should not be much different than X. Which is also saying that due to resellers, the key prices will keep increasing, with a decaying rate, and then converge to a value. Now, let |.11/X|<Eps, where Eps is the error (or profit) that you're trying to minimize. How would you limit your Eps (error)? Currently, .11/6 = 0.0183, that is, you make 1.83% profit if you buy a key for 6 and sell for 6.11. How much lower do you expect this to get? Do you realize something wrong with your fact? Let me tell you what's wrong. If you increase the price and let the profit % drop, resellers will not be satisfied with the profit %, and will just start charging +.22 instead (which is precisely what I'm doing with my bots at the moment). What affect do you think this will have on key prices? It will blow up the key price exponentially, instead of making it asymptotically converge. This is the core of my argument, and it is why we should stop at an acceptable level. We are at the brink of exceeding it because soon, more resellers will start charging .22 for their services and you'll see key prices rising even more. Hopefully, this should also answer your argument on my "That being said, stabilizing the key price at a level would PREVENT the crash of the economy..." statement.

"The intent of Backpack.tf is to represent the market, not to dictate it, stabalize it, control it, or manipulate it... ", and the following 2 paragraphs:

You are not consistent with your ideas, and you disagree with yourself in that very first paragraph by saying the staff are taking measures against this (which on my account is a good thing). Again, referring to my initial statement, you agree with Backpack.tf controls the market, and also agree that backpack.tf should be under control as well. What I am saying is that the current control mechanism does not stop the key prices from increasing exponentially (consider a bubble to see why this is bad). It is providing a feedback that causes the prices to increase even more. This feedback should be cut off, or controlled, and I am pointing out that the current mechanism doesn't work.

Now in the next 2 paragraphs, you get aggressive all of a sudden. I see no reason for this other than not finding a valid argument to disagree with me. Please don't get personal on what I wrote. It's better to make logical (or illogical) statements as you had done in the previous paragraphs. I am merely disagreeing with the validity of the evidence that is shown here. Notice I did not do this in any other item's price suggestion. I honestly think key prices are too important to be determined with this kind of wrong, biased, lacking evidence that we see everywhere, and I was pointing that out. Again, we will see more and more "X+.22" and higher resellers if the prices keep going up.

-> Lol, yes it is quite wordy. I agree, I will try to keep my replys to a minimum.

-> It it true but we are never going to go beyond reporting the prices. I wanted to say that bp.tf is never going to act as a governing entity regardless of how others use it.

-> You are kind of misunderstanding what I am trying to say. I use the value ".11" arbitrarily. It can mean .22, .33, .44 or more. What I am trying to get across is that as long as resellers continue to drive the price up by buying and reselling and they are successful, we are going to report that. It doesnt matter if the value is .11 or .22 or whatever.

->I am not disagreeing with myself. The extent of our regulation was to prevent bp.tf from leading market price shifts and go back to our original job of reporting price shifts. Going back to my original statement, we are never going to act as if we are the governing entity of prices even though we may be. The suggestions we were trying to prevent were never very good suggestions anyway. From the outside, this seem like an attempt at stabalizing the price but really we were just trying to cut down on rapid small changes that were using up the moderators time and preventing us from giving enough time to sort out outlying trades from normal value.

-> I am sorry for the aggressiveness. When I deal with key stuff its usually #savetehkey drones who cant understand what is going on and I get worked up. My bottom line is that bp.tf is never going to act the role of a governing entity. Our methods are not flawed, it is that we are being treated as a governing entity when we never intended to be. Some people like you have the expectation that we should take "responsibily" for our status and start modifying the way we do things but the truth is that we are never going to take "responsibility" for something we never set out to be in the first place.

I never thought I would get knee-deep in a discussion about key prices. While I have to admit I enjoy this, I do not want to spend more time on this, as I have already made my point backed up with a little scientific and logical reasoning. Again, I simply think what you are doing here is WRONG, and you are not doing what you think you are doing. You are defending a free market, but then telling people the right price for it. If you truly want a free market (with upper bounds that is), look at Steam Community Market (assuming Valve is not manipulating it, which is also very likely because they make a % profit from every sale). There, users are able to see the mean, and decide for themselves. What you are doing here is setting prices on things with invalid bits and pieces of information.

If someone has the data and the time, please do this: Plot the key prices, obtained from ALL sources (every single trade made) with mean, std, in refined metal over time, and also mark the Key Price Suggestions that were accepted (both the start and acceptance dates). Something like the plot bp.tf has, but with real data and with suggestion dates attached/marked. I would bet my money on: Key prices rarely (if ever) reached the suggested point, before the suggestion was made, or accepted (remember, even putting up a suggestion up for vote has an effect on the prices, people start saying "it's increasing").

In response to your comments:

First of all, I have to say I am disregarding the comment you appended with regarding the 2.33-2.66 example, because it is inherently wrong by itself, and it does not contribute anything at all. You cannot dissect trades into buyers and sellers. Buyers have also bought from another seller, vice versa.

Regarding your preceding comment:

"-> It it true but we are never going to go beyond reporting the prices. I wanted to say that bp.tf is never going to act as a governing entity regardless of how others use it."

Again, if it is what you truly want to do, you are doing it wrong. Just show the data if being objective is your aim. You are drawing wrong conclusions on wrong data.

"-> You are kind of misunderstanding what I am trying to say. I use the value ".11" arbitrarily. It can mean .22, .33, .44 or more. What I am trying to get across is that as long as resellers continue to drive the price up by buying and reselling and they are successful, we are going to report that. It doesnt matter if the value is .11 or .22 or whatever."

Same thing. I understood you perfectly well, but I see that you haven't understood me a bit. Please go back and read, or ask which part you don't understand.

"->I am not disagreeing with myself. The extent of our regulation was to prevent bp.tf from leading market price shifts and go back to our original job of reporting price shifts"

Again, I'm tired of repeating myself, sorry.

Here are my suggestions; you may agree and take action; take it with a pinch of salt or simply disagree. But just keep this in mind:

- If you are TRULY willing to NOT govern the prices: Don't set prices in this context. Show the true data, and let users decide. I know this does not suit how this website is built. In fact, there is NO WAY you can accomplish to be an objective reporter with your current setup, whether you realize it or not. Which brings me to my second suggestion (see below), which is VERY EASY to implement on this site, and it is the least you can do to cut the positive feedback.

- As you have stated, you seem like you're already trying to do this, but I recommend you to improve it. Increase the minimum change amount on currency suggestions. Make it 1-2 recs, or heck, 1 ref. Or put a percentage limit. (This should work for going up and down, remember, going down is inevitable, what goes up must come down. I can explain this in more detail if required) Don't allow any suggestions below that. This will hopefully put an end to this vicious cycle by dampening the frequent but little positive feedback.

Just to prove some of my points in my previous posts, look at what this suggestion has caused:

http://tf2finance.com/keys/

See the price increase over the last 1.5 days? Why do you think there are suddenly more sales closer to 6.11? The price started picking up AFTER the suggestion. I suggest someone to make a 5.88-6 ref suggestion that lasts a few days, and observe a similar effect. Believe it or not, this website is controlling the market, not the other way around.

I am only going to reply to your last two points to make it short.

-> I understand that our method of reporting the price will never present totally "accurate" prices by using all sources. But that is simply because of the way this site is structured and we cannot change it. We will never accept tf2finance, trade.tf, or any other statistical analysis site as valid proof because of the lack of full transparency. It will always work this way for better or for worse.

-> I honestly did not know that this was what you were trying to suggest. Your statements of stabilizing gave no hint as to a solution to the problem, only that "stabilizing" is the important for the economy. Increasing the minimum change is something that can be considered but I highly doubt it will be taken seriously; the last few changes have been weeks apart so there is going to be real urgency to do anything.

If you have any more final statements, add me and we can discuss because this suggest looks about ready to pass.

I have nothing else to state, except I think the raise is a mistake. I'm glad I was allowed to contribute, and if I have even changed 1 person's opinion, that's a success for me. I hope you guys find a better solution for this. Thanks.

-> Let me throw this is becuase I forgot to mention it earlier. Backpack.tf technically does not price items on a scientific average. We price things based off of what sellers can get. We ignore things like buyer trades because they buy for convenience and they only buy becuase they successfully sell for more. If you take a look at most items, backpack.tf prices are higher than trade.tf values across the board because we ignore buyer trades and only focus on what you can successfully sell an item for. It doesnt matter if over 50% of the trades are for 2 refined, if they are successfully resold for 2.33 and 2.66, we will price it at 2.33-2.66. So when you relate that to keys, it doesnt matter if most of keys are sold on servers for 2.33 or 5.88, if there is an excess of people buying for 6 refined and above on outpost. We will consider nothing less than 6 as the minimum and probably request a range merely becuase there is a demand at 6 that is not being met.

If you think for a bit, we are actually already acting with a level of regulation by not ignoring buyer trades all together and only focusing on selling trades like we do with everything else.

I understand your example with a 2 refs item being sold for 2.66refs, that's a big difference, but for example what happens if there's more or at least equal number of sells of that same item for 1.33refs than for 2.66refs? I ask this because it seems there's more 5.66-5.88refs trades than 6.11 refs ones for keys or try to find a reseller who BUYS for 6.11refs? I can't find one, the most what they pay is 6 refs and even there's some that pay 5.88refs like this one http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14878508 and appears to have keys in stock

This discussion in general is so dumbed down (and flawed as a result) that I feel it has absolutely no place here. Boils down to the role of bp.tf and key pricing procedures. You believe the job of the spreadsheet is to simply represent the most commonly traded values, the range being less important than just the numerical representation. I, and others, believe this is what has become a problem for this site in general.

Implicit in a 6 refined pricepoint, there is a range of 5.88 and 6.11. This "range" covers 95% of the key market now. Implicit but less strong in a range of 6.11 is the 5.88, 6, 6.05, 6.11, and 6.22 refined price points. This source of ambiguity is entirely unnecessary. Until a flat change to 6.11 can be proven, evaluated, and made based on the market (considering key prices have stabilized over the past week since the last key suggestion I'm not sure that will happen anytime soon, even with halloween coming) I see absolutely no reason to physically include 6.11 in a range, since it is already implicit and represented in a 6 ref flat pricepoint (6 ref is where a majority of key sales are still happening). The range, the source of ambiguity, is giving people leverage to continue to jack up their reselling rates, since this new range would imply that 6.22 sales are common and happening (in the current market they aren't at all). 6 - 6.11 refined doesn't even represent the market as well as a flat 6 refined price point does, in my opinion, not taking into account usual bp.tf pricing methodology, based on all of the evidence alone.

Whatever happened to "It's possible to sell for more so it should raise." Are you really that stubborn that 6 ref is a solid price when this makes me think otherwise? http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/51fffb0c4bd7b8840a000011 1 seller for 6 ref that hasn't been online for 2 days. And this is what happens to a poor trader if they leave it up for some time http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=282lus9&s=5 I'm awaiting your wall of text to make me think otherwise.

Sir Jon, you should know better than to encourage trolls and off-topic conversation on a key suggestion.

clever is trying to keep the suggestion civil and unspammed, and jon comes and spams the shit out of it with hypothesis and speculation, the stuff you've been warning for this whole time, which encouraged the other hypothesis speculator guy to keep going despite a warning, undermining other mods etc lawl.

I'm assuming jon did it because of the ridiculous discrepancy between the dudes likes and your dislikes? But honestly this guy's opinion would never happen nor work for this site and is extremely over-simplified, as people who actually follow it know. Not to mention the fact that people's mob mentality/ vote is generally pretty biased on key suggestions in particular.. We all know that like 60 of 70 of those upvotes come from the sensationalized "#savetehkeys" caps lock statement at the bottom, while conversely the dislikes on clevers comments also indicate nothing but a dislike of how you handle/warn in key suggestions as a whole at the most. Sometimes I like intelligent spam, but this is completely-useless-for-either-side empty words type of spam that has clarified nothing for anyone who has been following the site/tf2 economy.

First of all, my name is not that hard to type. But I agree that we should not continue this any further but I feel obliged to continue as you are continuing it yourself.

Again, I had no relationship with that group. I wrote that bottom line to attract the attention of people who're not capable of reading or understanding the whole thing. If the aforementioned group is classified as that, I'm glad I have no ties to them.

I think you too have only read my comments partially hence you got the wrong impression. Alas, I do not wish to spend my time more on something that is not my responsibility therefore I gave an (extremely) over-simplified alternative, which is still better than faulty and almost nonexistent. Feel free to throw in your own ideas. I hope you are not referring to my comments as completely-useless and empty though; that could only show your lack of understanding of my points.

My impressions were solely from the discourse lol. I sincerely doubt someone with intelligence was actually in a sensational #savethekeys steam group. I said the statement is what's drawing in a lot of support from the vast majority of voters who don't bother to actually read proof/evaluate the market, and just want keys to drop from an act of gaben.

Again I don't have the wrong impression. When basically anyone starts on this site, they're perplexed by how this voting system works/evaluates this currency in particular, and as a result it is very controversial. Typing out a long winded argument trying to attempt to change how the process works is irrelevant and spammey. Nothing productive can come out of it. This site needs more intelligent adults, but you need to learn how this site works and work within the constraints of the system in place to actually get anything done, because it has clearly been demonstrated that mods back it.

I'm pretty sure Jon realized that, you don't need to babysit him. Also spamming is a harsh word/subjective.

Many of your points are correct, but I tried using logic once -didn't work. People unfortunately don't care about reason, only about eating away at their own currency: by increasing the price of keys in in-game value, everything else goes down in monetary value, since keys are they constant for monetary value, and metal is the constant for in-game value. As the key-to-metal ratio increases, everything else loses monetary value, theoretically. So, nobody wins in the end.

Just saying they are selling in servers for 5.88 and the ppl asking 6 are having a hard time selling them for that. I know this is based mostly off op and yes i have provided proof before on these prices and got raped by others on here for doing so. I figured i would throw this out here being a trade server owner for 4 years now.

I guess it's time for the neg points since i state the truth. Let's do this!

Could you pull chat logs and ctrl-f to key advertisements with time stamps? I'm not saying I know whether or not this is at all possible/if there is a record of this on the back-end, just wondering from a non server owner perspective :) would be very helpful to see, outpost clearly doesn't give the whole side of the story by any means.

Here is one example @ 3 ref and 5.55, then i will pull logs and try and pull some. http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=176282622

Awesome, screenshots always appreciated, thanks for going the extra mile to try and pull proof off the back-end. Although these are outliers, they give a bit of a feel of the market/serve to help discredit the couple "valid" 6.22-6.44 sales brought up. Trade servers just seem like the most realistic trade venue; people generally sell for an items "perceived" worth on them, as opposed to profiteering a couple scraps on every post or buying to resell/selling to buy.

Here are a few i found rushing through my logs, sorry they are really big logs and it's 6am. I will try to get more screenshots from now on. I also float through an avg of 50 servers a night and this is common.

L 09/25/2013 - 23:11:06: "_|GB|_thegoonshop<1547><STEAM_0:1:60775544><Red>" say "selling keys for 3.66 each"

L 09/25/2013 - 23:13:24: "_|GB|_thegoonshop<1547><STEAM_0:1:60775544><Red>" say "selling 2 keys for 3.55 each or miscs or s.shotgun"

L 09/27/2013 - 23:24:51: "Agent_E01<2992><STEAM_0:1:61608291><Red>" say "Selling a key! 5.88!"

L 09/29/2013 - 22:32:20: "۞ld Gregg<5185><STEAM_0:1:6299122><Red>" say "**SELLING** One Key for 5.66 REF, Strange Carb Bot Knife for 1 REF & Strange Carb Bot Sniper for 2.66 REF!"

L 09/30/2013 - 20:27:01: "Agent_E01<5834><STEAM_0:1:61608291><Red>" say "SELLING KEYS FOR 5.88!"

L 10/01/2013 - 19:06:56: "baseballman1224<6491><STEAM_0:0:51158370><Blue>" say "selling a key for 5.88"

L 10/06/2013 - 20:20:04: "Tuskor505<40><STEAM_0:1:63627160><Red>" say "Selling 1 key for 5 ref"

L 10/06/2013 - 20:29:16: "Tuskor505<40><STEAM_0:1:63627160><Red>" say "Selling 2 keys for 10 ref or 1 key fr 5 ref"

L 10/04/2013 - 17:22:01: "Teddy<527><STEAM_0:1:24097140><Red>" say "selling key for now 5 ref"

L 10/05/2013 - 10:29:15: "Finn #TauntAfterEveryKill<1390><STEAM_0:1:51993283><Red>" say "Selling keys 5.66 each"

L 10/03/2013 - 22:35:05: "-=GHS[HA]=-Dr POW sick<903><STEAM_0:0:29494620><Blue>" say "Selling a key for 5.88 refined."

Not selling a key but willing to take a key or 5.88

L 10/05/2013 - 08:00:07: "(: Gringo :)<1186><STEAM_0:1:48524528><Red>" say "SELL Pink and Lime Paints 1 key or 5.88 ref each, Australium Gold Paints 2.66 ref each, BUY Some Chemistry Sets"

L 10/07/2013 - 01:05:33: "Corp.fox<290><STEAM_0:1:324461><Red>" say "SELLING 3 PINKs FOR 1 KEY OR 5.66 REF EACH."

Good shit. Last 6 in particular are helpful. 6 ref and seemingly successful 6.11 ref sellers would actually be extremely helpful as well, if you ever get a chance to check, know you're a busy guy. Could also forward them to me if you'd like as well, could sort through them for you and compile some data. Either way I'll be taking screens on trade servers when I'm on as well to do my part, to be sure. Thanks again

I think, with this, I grow more hateful of the guys who buy at average and sell for more...

Sadly i have seen a huge growth of this in the last week of resellers taking advantage of ppl that sell at a lower price and selling high. Nothing we can do though to stop them.

We can't say making profits is bad... There are traders who don't adhere to the prices that ~~the rich TF2 players~~ some people set, but I can't find any of these traders (considering I'd like to get an Archimedes Chem Set... wish me luck with that).

thanks for the time to upload this, I ,as a frequent user of trading servers, always knew that even 6 refs is hard to sell. I dare the OP of this suggestion to go into a trading server and try to sell a key for 6.11, he only will get bashed with harsh words and people will start making fun of him...

its sad but i all 6ref get sold in a few seconds. can never find 6ref sellers

upvote

My bots get plenty of sellers for 6 ref, and there are plenty in the servers as well. Don't just look at OP.

You are welcome to provide additional proof/counterproof from other trading websites.

im saying people who sell for 6ref get adds immediately.

people who sell to bots (me too. dont really bother trying to get a scrap profit) for 6 ref is because they want convenience. its n/a as proof. thats y scrap.tf for example cant be used for proof

just open a trade for 6 ref. got an add in exactly 14 sec.

edit: y am i even testing it lol. just look at pyroman's proof

so what were you expecting? So you wanna raise keys to 6.11 to sell at 6 refs in 2 seconds? Is not like adding that 6.11 to the range will make the keys sell slower or something, so why taking "how fast does it sells" as a parameter?

do u even know whats the point of bp.tf? it is to show prices of items as accurately as possible. if most sales are at 2ref price will be 2ref. if most of the sales are at 67 refs price will be at 67 refs.

no one said anything about trying to "make the keys sell slower or something"

Resellers ALWAYS will exist, everybody is trying to justify a price change just because of the presence of resellers, so if the price is 6 refs and a reseller buy for 5.88 and sells at 6refs then the price must drop? or if resellers buy for 6 refs and sell for 6.11 the the price needs a raise? So what's the scenario to do not change the price, that resellers buy for 6 refs and sells for 6 refs too making ZERO profit? Don't be naive, all people who sell for 6.11 or more is because either they resell or because they manage to buy keys for 6 refs or lower

didnt really read ur reply and dont want to argue.

the point is, bp.tf is trying to follow the market price as best as possible. if everyone is selling for more than 6 ref and u do not update the price, it is price manipulation

yeah upvote the suggestion even is FULL of resellers if not it will be price manipulation, agreed with you on this too, No price change= Market manipulation, price change (to raise obviously)= Instant Upvote and yeah I don't have time to read your replies BUT I have time to reply your reply

I once wiped this bot of all keys at 6.11

it had 1 after a second try a few days later :/

gud prof upboat

I still think it's lame that Long got instabanned and his key suggestion was closed. He was being serious, mods, and I fully expect that he'll appeal for his permaban to be removed. I had my doubts that it was even a permaban to begin with.

Now, you got anything smart to say now? Upchuck, by the way. I put enough effort into this comment so that the mods probably won't warn me about this.

I wonder why your comment was thought of as spam last time lol.

Haha oh that made me laugh.

Whoever was butthurt enough to downvote that comment, I'm so sorry that you feel you must take this so seriously.

Bless you, Blatch.

inb4 we both get warned.

I think he got banned because he spammed alot of community sparkle key suggestions with the same proof

You have a backpack filled with keys and most of those are keybots and resellers downvote

omg he bp is going to rise by 2.33, he has solid proof supporting this range, can't just downvote because he owns a few.

it isn't just a few its 45 and most of is proof is keybots and resellers and that's not proof a kebot/ reseller will always sell for more just for profit so yes downvote.

even so, it proves that sales above 6 ref are common and 6 ref is considered a quicksell.

Most of his proof may be resellers/bots, but my additional proof isn't (ppmj is just talking about 6.22-6.44, which for the moment is irrelevant)

Also, the amount that a suggestor owns of an specific item doesn't matter at all, Long had 600+ keys and he got many suggestions through.

Everyone owns keys... why would I go and find all this proof just to raise my backpack's value by 2.33 ref... I did this because I noticed that many sales are happening at 6.11, enough to change the price. I am in no way doing this for my own benefit, you should realize that

Yah I change mah vote, downvote, sorry

Edit:Many are resells or bots so downvote...

to all three of you ^^

Sales are sales, almost all of these bots and resellers and buying at 6 ref and selling at 6.11. My suggestion suggests a range because almost all key sales happen at 6 ref or 6.11. Unless you can somehow prove that many sales don't happen at 6.11 then there is really no reason for you to downvote.

I will repeat the argument of why resellers and bots should be discarded: because EACH of those keys that were sold for 6.11 were BOUGHT FOR 6REFS, only reseller that may count will be someone that buys for 6.11 and sells for 6.22 refs but why even bothering to pay 6.11 refs if there's plenty people willing to sell for 6 refs? Even according to resellers 6.11 is OVERPAY

OH MY GOD when i see most of the comments i wonder how long does it take to write all those OMG

im buying them for 6 ref... today i get 2 more, and in 3 days i get 7... downvote... remmember when keys cost 2.33... that happy days...

Because a single trader is TOTALLY the whole market.

Also, 7 bought per day at 6>10 sold at 6.11 in less than an hour?

keys are the way to pay everything in that game!! if they buy at 6.11 is to trade later for something... and i remember that this is called QUICKBUYING... and requires an overpay... thats why people can sell it for 6.11, i had trade so much and in the pass i sold all my keys always for a scrap more that the past official price... (i say that with more than a max in keys in items that can be sold easilly (i refer to mine 6 s.festives) and 7 or 8 keys right now)

uhm, quickbuying is the act of paying less for an item to make profit, not vice versa.

The fact that many people are willing to pay high prices in such low time demands for an update in prices.

You may have a few sellers a your price, but 6 ref is the quicksell price nowadays of keys, everyone is willing to pay 6 ref because it's easily profitable. Any 6 ref key seller you'll find will most likely be sold out within minutes or even seconds.

I don't get how these hypocrites can support you.

I believe that quick buying is paying above market for an item fast, unlike buying quickselling items like you are thinking.

quickbuyer: person who has a trade up buying items for less than their market value for the purpose of reselling

quickseller: person who lists an item below market value to get rid of it quickly

Thats not a quickbuyer thats a lowballer, and those sales aren't "quick"

That's the name the community gives to them.

Lowballers are just people who lowball.

I still don't see where the "quick" portion of quickbuyer comes from. If they're buying for less than market price wouldn't they get much slower trades?

Edit: Is it because if one could sell it to them thus granting them a "quick" buy? The name still seems highly inappropriate for what it means.

You know, keys isn't the only currency.

Keys I think are fine in the way they stand, People buy or sell at 6 ref and the ones looking for profit sell them at 6.11, its a fine cycle but when people start the suggestions, people go one up so buyers will still go for the 6 ref but they can push what they sell it at. normally by 1 scrap and this begins another sell/buy cycle that a lot of people follow which leads to another suggestion and the cycle goes on again but costs that small amount more each time.

Some people will think that 1 scrap is not much of a difference, but when you look at it in the long run. Its had a pretty massive change

I know a lot of other people notice it but I'm calling out on it, very much every successful key suggester owns a large amount of them so the increase does benefit them, what ever happened to key suggesters owning next to no keys instead of pages full.

Well If I don't make a statement based on this suggestion's proof, I don't see this comment staying too long.

The suggester's proof is very small in key suggestion standards, even Pyroman, who is not really getting anything out of this suggestion, gave more proof (Despite a decent amount of it not being very good but at least he got some)

The countering by PPMja998 #LosSantosRockRadio has made me consider this suggestion passing at all.

I will lay back for a while to see if anymore proof (supporting or not) comes along until I vote so I will stay neutral for a little while.

I've already taken my decision and upvoted. I don't think even ppmj will stop this, all proof shows 6 ref is indeed a quicksell and at least 6.11 should be in range. A few of the non-spam comments also indicate that 6 sells very easily despite being very common, which means people are always peeking in waiting (i.e.raping the f5 button) on trade.tf

all the increases since 2.33 to 6 refs were because "1 scrap above the max backpack.tf price should now be in range" or you haven't seen the pattern?

I don't care about the pattern, it's still valid, and I don't see anything wrong with it,

Nothing wrong with this pattern?

Key resellers sell at 1 scrap above backpack.

Currently that is 6.11 ref.

They see the price now includes 6.11 ref, they start selling at 6.22

Next week the suggestion to raise keys is composed of those same people.

Repeat Ad Infinium

I, in fact, see a lot of things wrong with this.

I don't like it, but upvote :(

too much proof, i have to upvote :(

I did a little experiment.

http://i.imgur.com/yQ6hrTh.png

I refreshed the page until it just hit 1 minute; had 4 requests at the end of it.

Keys will probably keep rising for a while yet, it seems inevitable as of this moment in time. While you could argue that keys are a popular currency, and so it's likely to sell quickly, it's still a quick sale nevertheless.

You have my upvote.

This pretty much verifies what I said about 6 ref being a quicksell.

Did the same again, this time @ 6.11.

http://imgur.com/QYAtHiG

1 Add within 1 minute. Also this time I remembered to cross out names etc. with my pro editing skills.

I have been selling keys for 6 ref and a weapon, does that count as 6.05 ref ?

Gonna help here with proof :v

http://i.imgur.com/vYApTxA.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/IpzdFBK.jpg

I'm buyed for 6 ref and sold for 6.11+ so UPVOTE !

Sold 1 for 6.66 Refined. Upvote.

http://puu.sh/4ID7F.png

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14786802

"he has like 42 keys and is trying to increase his backpack value, downv0te."

But seriously upvote proof is good/great.

You do realise you're not the first one (both in this thread and longtime) to realise that, right? It's a vicious cycle tha hasn't stopped since last october, and probably won't until some major event happens (which i'm highly sure will happen when metal drops in value enough to be almost worthless, which although unlikely, is possible), but that won't be anytime soon. The proof is there, why'd you be downvoting? All you guys defending the lower prices of keys always have contradictory arguments, ffs.

Ok, i'm realizing it. However, i get a warning for it.

About proofz: There are much more that 1000 trades with key selling/buying every day. Time between votes - 2 weeks. So you need more that 200-300 examples of people who just want profit(buyers) or wants to get some fast metal(sellers)

All people have their own thoughts,even dislogical, and you can't judge them. Even we are talking about key prices.

Btw, can you show your true account, just to satisfy my interest? Cause i don't believe, that guy, without anything in bp, taking so much care about key price;)

This is my true account. Don't believe me if you want, I've talked about it several times in the past (and accused of just as many times)

I hate these people who say "erhmahgerd hurr durr he has a 2 key bp yet is a top suggestor iz ovius alt"

Ok, sir. Let it be.

However, i stand against all and will downvote till number of examples less than 2 percent of all key trades.

I'm going with #3, I love people who hate on me, mostly seen on my older suggestions.

Yeah, HATE ME, hate me even worse than long218.

But in all seriousness, this is my only account and I started getting a while ago into backpack.tf for the sole purpose of trying to help keeping some prices updated, and ever since I got into currency stuff, I liked helping out people unbiasedly. I know ppmj is not biased either, but I believe the proof shown (incluiding the counterproof) helps the suggested range.

Also, if you do really want to figure out why I'm so poor, I guess reading these 2 (in order) will help out

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51f73166ba25369b38000016

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51fbd1c54bd7b8e55c000024

Please stop feeding every single troll

I can't really help. It's just that it's so annoying.

I'll try to.

Care to provide the reason for which you're downvoting? Your comment doesn't contribute to anything at all.

Stop spamming content-less comments and I'll stop warning them.

You're lying and I know that... Once had a time I posted "If this price keeps going up it will only make people sell their keys for more and it will go up again and again, if we dowvote however it will stop sometime" and I got a warn... Best adm/mod/whatever ever

Add me or another mod if you want to contest warnings, this is not the place.

That doesn't help anyone in any way, to be honest.

Also, I know this should be taken to the forums, but I always wondered why people hate so much on cleverpun. They're actually (IMO) the one mod who does most of the hard work on the site, keeping controversial suggestions clean and being fair. The only problem is that most of the people affected from the bans/warnings they deliver disagree with them and provide unreasonable, biased explanations.

If by clean and fair you mean passing key suggestions with terrible proof/voting accuracy, as we have seen before, sure.

pun themselves has accepted only 2 key suggestions so far, and most of the voters on such suggestions vote biasedly, all because people hate the fact that keys are rising.

Or perhaps people vote the way they do because the people that make the suggestions have hundreds of keys, and because a lot of proof is inaccurate. Also, again, it's surprising that these terrible suggestions get accepted when they hardly have over 50% positive, and many times it's below that. I'm just saying, how is that even remotely fair?

I was talking about cleverpun, not the mods that accept these suggestions. Proof is almost never inaccurate (unless counterproven, which most of the time fails).

Also, proof is accurate in this, and supports the suggested range. It doesn't matter if less than 50% of the voters agree, 6 ref has already been proven to be a quicksell and 6.11 sells decently quick and in large quantites, so traders are already accepting them as such.

That's like saying that the regular price of an item is a quicksell because it "sells extremely fast." No, it's because it's an accepted price that everyone agrees upon, that's why it sells fast. And people who buy at 6.11 and higher are lazy in my opinion, because 6 ref is easy to buy at.

6 ref might be common, but most people fail to buy them because they're taken too quickly. that's why they decide to pay slightly more

True, but if you have some patience they're easy to find at 6. Even easy to find cheaper, as well.

Upvoted but i'm very afraid.

I'm very sorry for my (probably) off-top post, but have bp.tf some requirements to price suggestions? Or you guys, looking at examples, and saying your "imho"?

I looked for it on FAQ, but didn't find.

Lol, Pyroman getting minuses so fast:D HATERS GONNA HATE <3

idrc if people support me or not, after all, 90% of the non-regular users are biased/irrational

u can not base the price on keys solely of tf2 outpost trade simply because it is the home of highballers, and some pple dont mind paying extra. however i garentee that only reason u dont have links of pple selling for less, is because they get snached up so quickly

that's like saying "oh you cant base proof on the trading site with the highest amount of userbase because every single trader wants profit"

heres some of my evidence of me buying keys at 6.22/6.33

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14823807

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14818825

Bought key for 6.22 in under 1 hour.

Well obviously people are going to go to the highest buyer. I have no idea what you're trying to prove here.

Regretfully, this will never happen. Halloween causes the most demand for keys.

You own 42 and you want the price to increase. Downvote.

I've had enough of the key price increasing. Its ruined the fun in unboxing. Can't we just bring the price down to 2.33 ref or whatever it was before it relentlessly increased?

You can hate on me all you want if you disagree. I don't care. It just shows that you're not playing TF2 correctly because if you're here to get as much virtual currency as possible, you should really uninstall the game.

So crash the whole market by suddenly lowering the prices of a major currency so that everyone tries to sell everything at once for metal? Besides, owning an item doesn't mean anything towards whether or not you should vote either way. A suggestion with 0 owns is just as valid as 216 keys owned, as long as the proof is the same. And about your "not playing TF2 correctly"... the point of the game is to have fun, some people enjoy trading for profits to see what they can buy, nobody is forcing you to pay for keys with metal, or to even trade. If you don't like that key prices are accurate as of now, then don't buy or sell any. Craft hats or use token crafting if you want the same excitement as unboxing. Besides, it's the community's fault the price is like it is, not just for some magical reason. Prices went up because of mass idling, which still happens. More metal means more people can get items easier, and the most commonly wanted item is a key since you can't find it in game, only available through the store. If you're tired of key prices going up, well that's just too bad. Unless something major happens like keys going 50% off in the store, the price will only rise, and it's justified by the amount of people willing to buy them for the current metal price.

100% agreed on this, if trading isn't playing the game correctly, then that means ~10% of the total TF2 players should "just uninstall the game" as barrett said, which is just yet another idiotic excuse to "prevent the economy from crashing" i.e. fuck it up by lowering key prices.

Like I said if this gets passed it will increase my bp by 2.33 ref... why would I go and waste my time finding this proof for that. Also this just shows that you're downvoting for no reason pertinent to this suggestion, why don't you go look at the proof like you're supposed to and decide for yourself whether the price should be changed or not. I'm doing this for the community, and I am in no way doing this for myself. Also everyone owns keys and some of the past users that have made key suggestions have owned over 200, yet it has had no impact on the passing of their suggestion. You should really learn how to use this site, vote on suggestions after looking at the proof, not after coming to the stupid conclusion that I'm trying to make a profit.

PLS NO OMG. Keys are perfect at 6 ref and your price suggestion is 1 scrap more. Like really?

It seems keys are still stuck in their typical catch-22. Keys go up, high seller sell higher, thus the price of keys goes up. I am not voting, I never get it right with these suggestions, just wanted to point out the bit of nonsense going on with keys.

It always amuses me how much people rage when key prices go up. Anytime I sell a key at 6 ref, I have 10 adds after my trade was up for less then 30 seconds. Maybe it's me, but when the right hand side of my screen is so spammed by invites I can't even see my ammo in game...it's time for an increase.

Upvote. ~~Inb4 dislikes because I support the site being accurate and not for price manipulation.~~

~~Let's get shot down together!~~

Also, I'd like again to have some proof shown of my claim, that 6 ref sells insanely fast.

Insta sold mine at 6 ref and i got 11 adds in 5 minutes.

I don't like raising price that much but 6.11 in the range is needed.Upvote

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14909764

ok this are nices proofs!

but atuaclly i thing that keys should be 6.00 ref no more!no bump down!no bump up!

this is a good price of 6 ref!

down vote!

Either English isn't your first language or you type really awfully, but you can't say that 6 ref is a good price just because it looks pretty as a flat price. We're here to report accurate prices, not what we "think" they should be. If you can give us proof of 6 ref being a stable price [good luck with that] then we'll consider that as counterproof.

Upvote, although it's sad people are so greedy nowadays....Everyone wants to buy for 6 ref and sell for 6.11 to make that scrap profit.

Do you know what I do? I buy for 6.11 when I need keys and sell for 6 when I need metal. It's called >conversion rate<. 1 scrap isn't that much, get over it, folks.

even if it's a single scrap people will always think of it as a big deal, since keys are the mainstream currency and even the slightest change can be very controversial

A dollar isn't worth 90-110 cents for a reason.

The existence of a cent is derived form a dollar (the word cent by itself means the 1/100th part), keys are NOT made from Ref, this is just a "community based" conversion, Refined is for crafting hats and weps while keys are for opening crates, any further conversion or use as currency is just an community based practice, neither of both , ref or keys are meant to be a currency

Key's sold for 6

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14278271

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14619404

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14306674

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8799185

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10830421

I will add more Later

that proves nothing actually, 6 ref is still within the range

Automatically classified as "quicksale" to everyone on this site. Bend over and accept the raise in price. It won't hurt... much.

Might not be very helpful, but I bought one for 6 refined today: http://imgur.com/rjlg5xs

6 refined is still in the suggested price, so...yeah it really doesn't add anything to either side.

So you've made up an excuse to buy keys for way below their value? No. I'm not joining your group either.

And you have the nerve to call us people who sacrifice their time for economic updates "stupid." Seriously?

There is a reason that keys are this high, you know. Idling created an inflation of metal and now that that has seemingly been abolished for the most part the economy doesn't feel like lowering keys' prices so it just keeps going.. like the price of a key is a rocket and idling was the fuel. The rocket's run out of fuel but it's in space and it just keeps going because it can't stop..

Show me a trade where you're selling them for a similar price and I'll believe you. Otherwise, to me, all you're doing is making excuses to buy keys at a ripoff price.

Alaska was already banned for this. I don't know why are you following his idiotic steps.

I just sold one for 6.11 and 2 people added me withing 3 minutes

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14914699

well the proof says it so upvote from me

The fact that keys sometimes sell for 6.11 is because BOTs or people want profit. Now that you turn this into 6.11 will ruin that. I know people are butthurt about prices rising, but I have a logical reason. People want profit, and others take their price at granted. It should stay at 6 ref to just have those profit monkeys sell at 6.11, and the norms sell at 6. No, making the price 6 - 6.11 will make 6.11 the norm, and profit price will be at 6.22, so it should stay at 6 refined flat.

That's the cycle that has been there since last halloween, it's completely normal that it's happening, and there's no problem with that. The market is not unstable, so I don't see what you guys are butthurt about.

its not about whether bots want profit. the point is many people buy for more than 6

sad upvote T.T why can't keys start going down? whatever happened to 2 ref ;_;