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This is my first 'serious' suggestion, please be kind. I could only find 2 sales of this hat.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11385518 - Sold for 1 bud + 2 keys.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6636990 - This one sold for a B.M.O.C. a crate #40 & 6 keys. This trade is 10 months old so I checked the new prices of the items and it added up to around 25 keys, now worth a bit over a bud.
Also there are 5 on Outpost at the moment & 3 with B/O's of over a bud.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14934693 - 1 bud + 3 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14000362 - 1 bud + 6 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14728085 - 30 keys.
You're basing your high end off of an unsold buyout?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11385518 sold ~4 months ago
B/O=/=sold=/=price range
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14920448 - BO of 1.3 buds
Your only sale was 4 months ago, and it is outside of your range anyway. I don't see support for 1.7 bud high range.