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Counter Suggestion. Thanks to BatMurg And AwesomeMcCoolName For The Proof.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15015321 sold for a sulphorus bootleg billy (2.1)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13651661 sold for lv 99 max (~2.5)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13747225 sold for sunbeams bonk (3.2+) <-- I, Vince Sold One For ~3.7
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13755241 (sold for 3pure)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15004795
PE Brigade for Blizz Nappers+Aces trilby+1 bud - 9 keys
4.3 = 1.8 + .5 + x
4.3 = 2.3 + x
2 = x
Using too many variable in order to estimate a value of 2 buds for low-end based on last trade. Downvoting due to a belief that low-end is too low based on other sales. The sale involving the Sunbeams Bonk Helm is closer to ~3 buds as I mentioned on the other trade.
This is going to end up having like 4 different suggestions before someone gets it okay
2 sales at 2
2 sales at 3
1 at 2.5
how do you pick outliers?
this is probably the most refined this can get
The sale involving the Purple Energy Brigade Helm, Blizzardy Storm Nappers Respite and buds should be ruled out because you're assuming that the values of the Brigade and Nappers are being held constant which is too much to assume when pricing unusuals.
As for the Sulphorous Bootleg, its a 4 month old price.
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14209003 in this trade, Pootisman, offered an Orb Fire L'Inspecteur and 37 keys which was then sniped by another owner. That offer would be roughly ~2.6 buds at the time it was offered.
A better price would be 2.5-3 buds
Assuming that sale wasn't an outlier. Also, btw, he sold the l'inspecteur for keys first.
other owner sniped it fast as if it was a very good offer (and not to mention he traded hijacked) so i think dats an outlier
Outlier? Are you being serious? It falls within the original suggested price, not to mention the suggestion only involved a single sale at 2.1 buds, which was actually 2.15 buds: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/51c62e024bd7b8c030000004
Not to mention the low-end value had no definite trade, and only involved evaluation of the backpack history of the buyer not accounting for any possible other sweets that may have been added. Also the fact that it was sold to a person that is now marked on steamrep, and has a trade prohibition status doesn't help.
l3 never sold for bonk
l4 has no proof of sale
Both are old