Hype's over, pack up, go home, you're through.

Seriously though, virtually no one sells this for a key.

Please note none of my links here are low crafts or painted

Proof:

Classifieds:

http://imgur.com/PP76QZz (and it goes on, almost no one for a key)

Outliers:

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9837504 (a craft hat, just why...)

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9837825 (a backpack expander and a weapon)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15073897 (Pop eyes)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15074620 (4 ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15063317 (4 ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15071822 (4 ref)

Sellers for 5 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15077746

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15074536

http://bazaar.tf/trade/485636

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15071364

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15066232

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15063290

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15047954

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15047658

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15046311

Sellers at 5.33-5.66:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15077251

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15074163

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15074044

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15060350

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15057048

http://bazaar.tf/trade/483816

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15045545

Conclusion: There is just proof galore for a drop on this item. Almost no sellers for a key. They range of sales is so wide for this, but this is because it is a new item, and is still unstable, but for now, 5-5.66 ref, in my opinion, is a good range, due to the abundance of sales at this price. As usual, any constructive criticism, counterproof, more proof, comments, etc. are welcome.