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After mine having been on the market for about 8 months I finally dropped the price to 7 buds. I ended up selling this hat and a burning cage +2.5 in a combo for a burning dappers and burning sgt drills. http://imgur.com/s9e643R
mind you I had the hats on the market for about 8-9 months and personally I think I got lucky.
Since they seem to be on a trend of re-releasing effects the rarity has dropped and most likely will drop again when more release and with that the price.
I am being a bit lenient with the price due to the fact that two are on the market currently both asking for 9 as a B/O and hey you never know right? http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/160873395
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12814860 - sold for 4.5 after 2 months of selling...
And your sale puts the moon birdcage around 6.8. hmm
This is a tricky one. But as is you don't really have proof for either end. We can't just make a range "to be generous." You'll need proof to establish either end.
The sale for 4.5 pure - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12814860 - seems low. With Varren constantly lowering prices on his hat, can't tell if he lowered his b/o to 5. He did have a prior offer of 6 pure 5 months ago. Really handwavy, but maybe low end could be 6 based on that for now. Your sale of 6.8 for the high end.
Please resuggest at 6-6.8. I honestly think that's already very generous, but your high end of 8 right now is definitely too high.