Suggestion: Refined Metal at $0.30–$0.32

Price Suggestion

Refined Metal

Submitted Fri, 18 Oct 13 19:45:10 +0000 by ★ Kafe

71.87%

$0.30–$0.31

$0.30–$0.32

121

~$0.03

1643 votes up

643 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was accepted Thu, 24 Oct 13 04:34:31 +0000 by polar.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Needed to close after the document holding my proof went corrupt, I've resolved the issue and Included some extra links.

Will it be possible?

Probably not

The recent down In metal price, I don't think it is very good, I've looked around and I think I can support the rising of the refined metal, when was the last time a ref suggestion to go up as attempted with effort, lets see how this goes.

Only one trade in this proof is Australian dollars so take that trade lightly please.

0.35 and above proofs have been included for future reference if needed.

Oh, and I have prepared myself

Please note that all currencies have been covered to USD, while this can cause some to be inaccurate, it should be taken with a grain of salt.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8753784 0.36 USD (Poor seller)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13722136 0.35 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12419098 0.35 USD (sold out)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11292408 0.35 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13909881 0.35 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9982051 0.35 USD

http://bazaar.tf/trade/303312 0.35 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11075214 0.35 AUD. ( Suggested value, 0.34 USD)

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/144714-750-refined-0-34-each 0.34 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10319745 0.33 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14104719 0.33 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14012933 0.33 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/7505351 0.33 USD (out of stock)

http://bazaar.tf/trade/334313 0.33 USD

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/150281-Refined-Metal-0-33 0.33 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14809348 0.32 USD (8 refined left)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13750947 0.32 USD

http://bazaar.tf/trade/424663 0.32 USD

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/149250-Refined-at-0-32-each 0.32 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10614459 0.31 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15097170 0.31 USD

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151643-Refined-for-0-31 0.31 USD

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/149363-Ref-for-0-31-and-keys-for-1-77-Paypal-each 0.31 USD

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/148820-Refined-Metal-31-USD 0.31 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13226650 0.30 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15082864 0.30 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13560330 0.30 USD

http://bazaar.tf/trade/344792 0.30 USD

http://bazaar.tf/trade/357521 0.30 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10633982 0.29 USD (Very good seller, very poor stock levels)

I have been checking these overtime and these still get buyers and are still active

the 0.29 trade has been selling very fast and has a poor level of stock, I will keep that one updated.

0.30 USD sellers are very active and getting fair sales as well, 0.30 is at a solid state

0.31 have less around but the ones open do sell.

0.32, like 0.31 have less around but still get those needed buyers and some have been very recent

0.33 is safe to say the Highest I would allow at this point, they do sell But is scarce despite one of them possibly being sold out.

Anything Higher I would say is too much but I will show those anyway. To prove some of this is still possible.

I will not be responding to comments but I will read some

Readme

Nice proof!

Upvote!

Good luck with the others

download

Yep, you're right, i downloaded your comment.

and..wat did u see??

To get my vote, about 8 more links

That I can do.

~~upvoted because it will raise everyone's backpack value~~

But seriously though, good proof. Upvote

Refined metal is going up? wait what? O_o

seems about right upvote

Da proof is good

Upboat :3

Good Proof!

Upboat!

Good Luck!

It's a shame that $2.49 / .31 still equals 8

If you're talking about key prices, then you could buy keys over paypal for about ~1.85$

If people sell keys for 1.85$, that would mean 1.85$ / 0.31 = ~6, actually just under 6.

I wouldn't suggest people engage in behavior that will inevitably end in Valve trade banning or at least reprimanding them with harsh tones. It's funny you'd dislike my post because I know how to divide. Is math really such an enemy of this site's user-base?

You can buy ref only via paypal and if you know what you do, you will not be tradebanned...Your logic is flawed while he is right.

My point was that you need to violate the TOS in order to make such a trade.

Sorry if this offends you somehow, I didn't write the EULA I just agreed to it.

They don't really seem to care about it though.

But as long ref isn't on the community market we need to set the price based on those gray area things. :)

So you have valid 2 proof links of 0.32. Not much for setting a new high end.~

And the ones higher have mostly no adds since august...

Edit:

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151860 - 0.32 4 days, nothing sold

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151933 - 0.32 2 days, nothing sold

Seems legit. Upvote!

IT BEGINS

Maybe our BP values won't shoot up into the stratosphere, but I'll take any of these raises I can get. You have been upchucked.

People should stop carrying about their bp value.~

Anyone who is upvoting because of that is doing it wrong. (I guess you meant it ironic but I'm pretty sure others don't.)

The last suggestion had a lot more proof than this. And for cash trades I would think you have to factor in sourceop threads since that's where more cash trades are done than on op.

Better get more proof before you click anything to close this trade

It won't make people billionaires, but it's a good, modest bump. Also, good proof. All together, upvote.

It's happening... finally

Nice proof ... upcoke!

Nice and alot proof ! Upvote :)

Eh I'd kinda want more proof, legit and all, but no, sorry.

very solid proof

Does this mean keys will go down?

Sadly, no.

Wait..... We'll see....

Pretty good proof, but I'd say try to gather a little more if you want the mods to accept. Also, I'd say remove that intro. "The recent down In metal price, I don't think it is very good" makes you sound like you only posted this in opinion. But your proof supports the change pretty well, so I'll upvote. But again, try to get a few more links.

Some extra proof.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10685431 0.33 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13761605 0.33 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14809348 0.32 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13750947 0.32 USD

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/149363-Ref-for-0-31-and-keys-for-1-77-Paypal-each 0.31 USD

Good proof, glad you got more, upchuck mode = enabled.

Really good proof, FYI

Gaiz! Can't you see he owns 11 of them and he's out to raise his BP by 11 cents!?!

Anyways, good proof and upvote!

http://marketplace.tf/

The owners of Scrap.tf started to sell refined for 0.33$

That doesn't really show much since people are willing to pay more for the convenience/safety of a site like marketplace.tf

Right now it says $0.30 for me.

And 0.36$ now.

And now $0.39.

I really wouldn't use my website as a source.

And then you lowered your price to 0.3 to sell out and now you sell for 0.36?

Besides that as geel said, we shouldn't use marketplace as proof, it's the same with tf2shop.

If anyone is wondering the logic behind this, here is my 'theory':

Suppliers stock who sell at 0.30 - 0.31 are usually bought out and reserved (from personal experience) and keys are now being sold at 1.85 - 1.90 on average. Thus encouraging people just to buy the refined at 0.31 and transferring it to keys.

Along with this, big movers of stock are the main reason for price changes. Meaning most of the suppliers with larger and faster stock are the ones who would be controlling the prices. Smaller sellers at 0.30 usually aren't worth the effort for 10 refined and a payment sent to Germany, South Korea, ect.

That's not a theory, its a hypothesis. You're correct though. The more stock you have, the more you can trade for a certain price, therefor having more proof.

nice proof ... this only way make key price go down ... upvote :)

No they won't (anytime soon). In fact key prices rose from ~1.8$ to ~1.9$ on the paypal market.

yeah need to go up becouse and keys go up -_-

Oh my fucking god i'm so happy upvote!

Seriously though good proof! :)

GL with this (I have my fingers crossed for you!).

good proof up vote :D

I like the proof, Upboat.

Great proof upvote. ^^

Finally, keys will go down.

No they won't (anytime soon). In fact key prices rose from ~1.8$ to ~1.9$ on the paypal market.

Finally, back to the price from 1 month ago. And no just that, too has good and solid proof.

Buds up too? I don't know, with it i'm happy, and if the Keys down, more happy.

good proof. upgoat from me.

good proof i say up vote

If refined metal goes up,keys go down,so that would be good :DDD

#TROLLERAIsavestheEconomy#

It's unlikely the keys will go down immediately, due to keys being traded like any other item, so a ref could be (for example) $1.00, but if sellers are selling keys for 6 ref, and buyers are buying for 6 ref, then a key is still 6 ref, and not balanced into 2.55 ref. It's a really stupid system, and it's really borking the economy.

In an ideal scenario, the key price would directly reflect the ref price.

Glad prices are finally stabalizing...

--Controversial talk about keys in relation to refined below--

This might let refined finally get to the right price for keys(Which is about 39 cents), or keys get to the right price in refined(Which is about 7.66 refined). Hopefully, we can meet halfway.

Just want to point out, that if refined is 32 cents, and keys on the market are about 2.40$, then it should be 7.5 ref for a key, or if keys are really 6.11 refined, then refined should be valued at 40 cents.

Halfway should be somewhere around 6.49 ref for a key, and 35 cents for a ref.

If ref were to stay at .31 cents...

Keys should be 7.77 ref, a 2 scrap than if they were .32 cents.

Which means that people who have invested in keys would lose about 2 scrap per key. Note that keys are not yet 7.77 ref, so technically people who have invested in keys should get a 1.66 ref increase per key, then lose 2 scrap per key.

#person who is not in economy talking about an economy

You. I like you.

You can't mix the price of Ref in money with the price of keys in the Community market/Mann Co. Store, you CAN'T buy Ref as such from community market/Mann Co store/ Steam wallet, the only way is by Paypal so that's why you should take Paypal keys as a reference, which are 1.80, 1.90 USD max which is the equivalent of Keys at 6-6.11refs

You forget the part where you can easily buy keys for like $1.80 each off of other people.

I am just listing the easiest and most secure way to get keys that I know of...

But before this turns into a flame war, let me say that I have not taken any economy class, so for all I know i could be talking gibberish right now.

Other than that, that is my proof for this price. I don't see any counter proof in your comment to support your idea.

Cool story, except you're comparing two different markets with two different, non-interchangeable currencies. Steam wallet funds =/= real-world money, and metal can't be sold on the Steam Marketplace anyway, so the key prices there are completely separate and irrelevant.

This is the start of the recovery of the TF2 economy.

Apparently, I can't even vote to support it anymore. This vote has reached its maximum requirement of upvotes. THIS IS BLASPHEMY! XD

Anyways, good luck getting this approved!

OMG YOU OWN 11!!!! PRICE MANIPULATION

jokes aside, solid proof, upvoted

you get a kiss from wally <3 if i could upvote, i would <3

Why cant you? There is a green tick button :P

"This item has recieved too many upvotes. you can still downvote"

Make it more upvotes! :D

this makes sense also because people are crafting again. even when there are no more low craft #s available, the influx of new items since the summer coolers means crafting yields nice items that are worth > 1.33 refined (and regardless or price, the new items are COOL)

and yes, people do craft with metal ( http://one-crate-per-week.tumblr.com/post/49723737022/week-11 )

also check this out. this guy tracks the stock at tf2 warehouse. here's what happened to refined when the acorn/gourd keys became available to open crates #72 and #73 and those items became craftable: http://tf2wh-charts.chrishowie.com/summary/5002/6/?endtime=1381946167

still amazed so few trades have such a drastic effect on the value of the entire economy tho. it's an illusion...

A problem I have with this suggestion:

An example

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10685431 is selling for 0.33 $

But this trade is open for several months, and the last comments dated back 3 months ago. We don't really know if he sold refs within these last 3 months, and therefore it can't be used as proof, imho.

Another example (because above was 0.33$, not included in suggestion):

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/149250-Refined-at-0-32-each

No comments at all. Last bump August 19.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13750947 0.32$ - gud proof.

This is a hard decision.

Go with whatever you find to be the right choice,

no one can say you are wrong as it is your opinion.

the ones for 0.33 should not be too much of a problem as 0.33 USD is not included in this suggestion, they are there only for future reference

One other thing, If you wish, I can contact the sellers and ask if they have had any recent sales

0.33 is a wrong example, I saw it afterwards. :)

I'm not really familiar with ref suggestions, but after looking at all the proof, I would say upvote because 0.30$ is still in the range and it's clearly it's also getting sold for 0.32$ or sometimes even higher.

Thank you for your support.

Hooray! Good proof, upvoting.

could someone explain the logic behind this?

if metal goes up, keys goes down right?

but what happens if ref was under $0.3? what would happen?

thanks

if ref was to go under 0.30 USD, the pattern we are at with buds, keys ect would not change from anyway they are now.

No they won't go down (anytime soon). In fact key prices rose from ~1.8$ to ~1.9$ on the paypal market.

hey wolfi, hows it going?

I made one post related to your proof, you should better read that. :P

Not the proofs, how is it going for you?

I just want to be social with the mods around here.

This is the wrong place for it. Take it to the forums. Or add me, or use the irc chat.

I hope this is a good start for the future of the Team Fortress 2 economy, let's hope!

The future will be here when metal is available on the community market. Until then, every metal/key conversion is going to be speculation.

What I find odd, is that this site would dare to price keys or metal in real $ (quoting places like sourceop) when it is clearly against the EULA to sell in-game items for cash other than through the community market.

Still an upvote from me, but consider the validity of pricing items you technically can't sell with valve's blessing, in a currency that makes it clear you are committing a "crime".

TL;DR upvote - also, metal shouldn't be priced in $ just like the $1.80 key transactions that happen over paypal shouldn't be accepted as proof of anything except for someone breaking the eula.

Comment 60 here.

Thanks for your support on this suggestion, I award you with. Extra proofs.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10614459 0.31 USD

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151834-Ref-0-31-USD-(paypal) 0.31 USD

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15129410 0.30 USD (5 left, stock went quick I guess)

Sorry if I double list some proofs by mistake.

If metal doesnt go up would be stupid to still making the key price go to the sky.. Upvote

http://marketplace.tf/

Selling for 0.30 with fees.

Stock 333 at time of posting.

Down vote from me.

"I really wouldn't use my website as a source."

Comment made by the owner of that site, look above in the other comments to find it.

Well if you include key sellers;the price of ref is accurate at it's current state.

Still Down vote from me.

Here we are discussing USD value of metal, not how many of them are needed to buy a key.

Time to risk and to see whats gonna happen with ref

I think that we should start to vote down on ref, because if we make ref lower, keys will lower. Well this is my first time doing this, so if im wrong, well damn. But I think that ref should be goin down. And I believe that it should lower to around 30 cents and then keep goin down from there.

That would be actual price manipulation. Also, suggestions are not decided by votes alone.

m8 actually if metal inceases keys lower

$0.3-0.31cash value

what does that statement even mean!?

Puddington, what are you waiting on? Accept this suggestion!

Well it's about damn time.

if the price of metal goes back up the keys will go down meaning the bills and the buds go back up

Is this real life?

why aren't this accepted yet?

Just a guess: Probably due to the fact that this is a currency, so it's more important than normal items. I've seen key suggestions take 5 days+.

Yes, but when the vote is bad for the refined the suggestion is accepted in 1-2 days...

Thats a fair point, But I suppose that because this suggestion is breaking the current trend this item is following (that is the value drops every 2 weeks - 1 month)

The Admins want to sit back for a while to see how people are reacting and how the proof is changing over time.

With a suggestion for a item of this importance and one that is breaking a popular trend, I was expecting a long wait ahead.

Your point is right. Alright, just must wait to the admin's decision.

I ~~hate~~ love people who try to raise ~~their~~ my bp value by manipulating prices. ~~Down~~Upvote.

Love the proof!

Upvote!

lol, upvoting maxed out.

I completely agree with this.

Sufficient proof!

How exciting! Thanks trollerai, i hope this comes trough and maybe makes refined metal worth a bit more!

Idk, why mods aren't accepting this .. With that many upvotes ..

ikr IWANTMYMOREEXPENSIVEBP

we need new orders...upvote...

isee poeple talking about keys...1,80$ ? i see keys on 1,78€ max>_>

1,78€ ~ 2,4808$ >_>

The market is not the place to get the cheapest keys. You can buy from someone for PayPal for $1.80 (about)

upboat proof is good

You sir, are a scholar, and a saint.

Alright. Mods deliberated on this one as a group. Problem here is really that the proof provided really isn't good. A lot of the trades have been up for months, and those are just not valid proofs to use in general cause you can never tell when the seller has stock and when the sales are actually occurring. We went in independently to find more / valid sales from ones that are currently selling and ones that have sold recently.

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151976-Buying-100ref-at-0-33 - buyer at 0.33 (has no ref, did he buy craft hats and craft?)

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151901-Refined-Metal-0-30 - sold 100 in a day at 0.30

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151643-Refined-for-0-31 - sold out at 0.31 quickly?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14809348 - sold 52 refined in 2 weeks? was selling at 31 and then increased to 32?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13750947 - seems to be selling, albeit it very slowly, for 0.32

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151860 - 0.32 4 days, nothing sold

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151933 - 0.32 2 days, nothing sold

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151834 - 0.31 4 days, sold out but not sure if for 0.31 or 0.3

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/128671 - 0.30, sold out

Just not that much proof to be honest. There just aren't that many current / recent refined sellers. But from what I can tell, 0.30 goes pretty fast now and 0.32 takes a long time. Perhaps 0.31 flat is the best price, but this range sort of covers that.

Reasons for the change are speculative and discussed in comments. But at the time I accepted the last suggestion, the question was more whether 29-31 was better or whether 30-31 was better. Since then all the sellers at 29-30 have completely sold out from that suggestion, and the value genuinely seems to be about right here. Community support certainly makes this an easier decision to make as well because we generally go with the community in close cases.

Special thanks to Woifi for helping me with the links.