Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used

Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15142989 - 2 buds + 5 keys = 2.3 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15086768 - Headcase, other guy added sweets

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198060535642?time=1382166000 --->

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198060535642?time=1382252400

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198046083104?time=1382079600 --->

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198046083104?time=1382166000

Sweets: Gold Terrorizer + S. Grenade + Gift Wrap = 1.9 buds (Quicksell?)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15049839

Headcase + #70 Beep Boy (Valuing it at 5 keys) = 2.5 buds

Conclusion

Eh, the 2nd sale looks like a quicksell. He sold it for more, but then quickly sold it for less :/ Well, vote accordingly.

Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3